JSCEM Report 2013 Australian Federal Election

JSCEM Final report of the 2013 Federal Election has been published.

http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Joint/Electoral_Matters/2013_General_Election/Final_Report

Missing is the much needed review of the method of counting the senate election.

The need for

1. A Weighted Surplus Transfer system.
2. A reiterative system of distribution of preferences from excluded candidates where the count is reset and restarted on each candidate(s) exclusion
3. The scraping of the Droop quota and the adoption of a pure proportional representative model (x/y)
4. The retention of Above-the-line (ATL) Group voting with the allocation of ATL voting to be equally distributed to each candidate within the group. The group maintaining the right to determine the order of exclusion within the group.

The guiding principle being

“That votes from excluded candidates should be redistributed and counted as if the excluded candidate(s) had not stood

The current system is disproportionate and favours minor parties/Candidates and does not reflect the voters intentions.

A full value vote should always be allocated to the first available continuing candidate without skipping and jumping.

A reiterative counting system would also allow of the adjustment of the quota for election on each iteration, facilitating optional preferential voting..

The current outdated system of counting the vote was designed to facilitate a manual count.

With the use of computer based technology there is no excuse or justification to maintain the outdated flawed system of counting the Senate vote.

TAS Senate Group Preference flow

It is said that Everybody in Tasmania has a member of the family in public office. It is the most over governed state in Australia. The home of Bob Brown fomer leader and patron of the Greens and maverick Member for Denison, Andrew Wilkie.

The Greens are expected to lose support this round but will still remain above quota

The question is will the ALP hold on to three seats or will they lose a seat to an independent group? 

The Liberal Party is expected to retain two senate seats. Prefernce flows are a mixed batch with the ALP having the edge over the Liberal Party.  We expect no change in overall results between 2010 and 2013 

However that is all ways depends on the extent of the swing against the ALP who also holds control of the State Parliament. Family First has a chance.  Had Wikileaks ran in this seat then this State would have been much more interesting to watch.


ABC State Seat Historical voting statistics used as a base in analysis and ABC Senate Calculator

Tasmania

	Candidate	Party
1	Carol BROWN	Australian Labor Party
2	Richard COLBECK	Liberal Party
3	Peter WHISH-WILSON	Australian Greens
4	Catryna BILYK	Australian Labor Party
5	David BUSHBY	Liberal Party
6	Lin THORP	Australian Labor Party

ID	Group Name	Group Preference Flow
A	Country Alliance	ASXP	LP	AFLP	ALP	ODR	FFP	GRN
B	Liberal Democrats	ODR	FFP	ASXP	AFLP	LP	ALP	GRN
C	Australian Labor Party	ALP	GRN	ASXP	FFP	ODR	AFLP	LP
D	Rise Up Australia Party	FFP	AFLP	ODR	LP	ALP	ASXP	GRN
E	Liberal	LP	FFP	AFLP	ODR	ALP	ASXP	GRN
F	Palmer United Party	FFP	GRN	ASXP	AFLP	ODR	LP	ALP
G	Australian Christians	FFP	AFLP	LP	ODR	ALP	GRN	ASXP
H	DLP Democratic Labour	AFLP	ODR	FFP	LP	ALP	ASXP	GRN
I	Pirate Party	GRN	ASXP	AFLP	ALP	LP	ODR	FFP
J	Australian Greens	GRN	ASXP	ALP	FFP	LP	AFLP	ODR
K	Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party	ASXP	AFLP	ALP	GRN	FFP	ODR	LP
L	Shooters and Fishers	AFLP	ASXP	FFP	ODR	ALP	LP	GRN
M	Australian Independents	FFP	ASXP	AFLP	ODR	GRN	LP	ALP
N	Sex Party	ASXP	AFLP	ALP	GRN	LP	ODR	FFP
O	Senator Online (Internet Voting Bills/Issues)	AFLP	FFP	ASXP	ODR	GRN	ALP	LP
P	Katter's Australian Party	FFP	AFLP	ODR	LP	GRN	ALP	ASXP
Q	No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics	FFP	AFLP	ASXP	ODR	ALP	LP	GRN
R	Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party	AFLP	FFP	ASXP	ODR	ALP	LP	GRN
S	Stable Population Party	ASXP	AFLP	FFP	GRN	ALP	LP	ODR
S	Stable Population Party	ASXP	AFLP	FFP	ALP	LP	GRN	ODR
S	Stable Population Party	ASXP	AFLP	FFP	LP	GRN	ALP	ODR
U	The Australian Republicans	ODR	ASXP	FFP	AFLP	LP	ALP	GRN
V	Smokers Rights	FFP	AFLP	ODR	LP	ALP	GRN	ASXP
W	Family First	ODR	FFP	ASXP	AFLP	LP	ALP	GRN

Greens face prospect of losing representation go on the attack

The Greens are facing defeat in Western Australia, New South Wales and Queensland.  Their greatest threat is from Wikileaks Party

The Greens could also lose a seat to Assange in Victoria should the ALP surplus and the Greens primary vote fall below 14% however the odds are in favour of the Greens winning in Victoria on the back of ALP preferences.

In a surprised turn of events Family First is also in the running to win seats in Victoria taking a seat from Liberal Party's Helen  Kroger and possibly one in Western Australia.

Vote Wikileaks and Family First are well placed to take advantage of above the line group voting tickets

The Greens are desperate to try and discredit Wikileaks that they are going around pushing false statement and claims that a vote for Wikileaks is a vote for Tony Abbott,  This is not the case.

In all analyses using the ABC Senate Calculator and our own database Wikileaks preferences do not  impact on the coalition votes at all. Wikileaks could help Sex Party gain a senate seat in NSW again at the expense of the Greens

Our analysis was done by allocating 3-4% to wikileaks and reducing the Greens vote and adjusting prefernces for other parties to take into account expected votes allocatd to new partis such as Clive Palmer, Bob Katter and the Sex Party to determine the required thresholds and shifts in the polls.
 
The Greens are expected only to hold on to a seat in South Australia, Tasmania and Victoria

Victoria

	Candidate	Party
1	Mitch FIFIELD	Liberal Party
2	Gavin MARSHALL	Australian Labor Party
3	Scott RYAN	Liberal Party
4	Jacinta COLLINS	Australian Labor Party
5	Ashley FENN	Family First Party
6	Julian ASSANGE	The Wikileaks Party  *

* Wikeleaks most likely to lose out to Greens on the back of ALP Surplus preferences

New South Wales

	Candidate	Party
1	Marise PAYNE	Liberal Party
2	Bob CARR	Australian Labor Party
3	John WILLIAMS	The Nationals
4	Doug CAMERON	Australian Labor Party
5	Arthur SINODINOS	Liberal Party
6	Graeme DUNNE	Australian Sex Party

Western Asutralia

	Candidate	Party
1	David JOHNSTON	Liberal Party
2	Joe BULLOCK	Australian Labor Party
3	Michaelia CASH	Liberal Party
4	Linda REYNOLDS	Liberal Party
5	Louise PRATT	Australian Labor Party
6	Gerry GEORGATOS	The Wikileaks Party

 Queensland

	Candidate	Party
1	Ian MACDONALD	Liberal National Party
2	Chris KETTER	Australian Labor Party
3	James McGRATH	Liberal National Party
4	Claire MOORE	Australian Labor Party
5	Matthew CANAVAN	Liberal National Party
6	Aidan McLINDON	Family First Party

* Family First most likely to lose out to Greens in a close election for te last seat

South Australia

	Candidate	Party
1	Penny WONG	Australian Labor Party
2	Cory BERNARDI	Liberal Party
3	Don FARRELL	Australian Labor Party
4	Simon BIRMINGHAM	Liberal Party
5	Nick XENOPHON	Nick Xenophon Group
6	Sarah HANSON-YOUNG	Australian Greens

Tasmania

	Candidate	Party
1	Carol BROWN	Australian Labor Party
2	Richard COLBECK	Liberal Party
3	Peter WHISH-WILSON	Australian Greens
4	Catryna BILYK	Australian Labor Party
5	David BUSHBY	Liberal Party
6	Lin THORP	Australian Labor Party

Vic Senate Group Ticket Preference Flow

The table below shows the group preference flow to the last 8 standing candidates/groups/

You need to allocate the percentage each group will achieve and then fold up the count having deducted to quotas from the ALP and LNP the remaining surplus an minor parties votes are then distributed according to the table below.  It is a guide only.

ABC State Seat Historical voting statistics used as a base in analysis

You should be able to create a spreadsheet with each of the 8 groups in a column and then calculate the expected outcomes using the ABC Senate Calculator


Note: 

There are a number of flaws and distortions in the way the AEC count the vote, most notably the calculation of the surplus transfer value and the segmentation of distribution of excluded candidates, remainders and the issue of the droop quota.  These distortions were implemented to facilitate a manual count. They can represent up to 70,000 votes or more. In the case of the Droop quota 14% of votes are ignored in determining the results.

With computer aided counting these distortions can and should be removed

In 2007 the method of segmentation and distribution of exclusions denied the Greens representation in the Senate The Greens remained silent. Ignorance is bliss

  

Group Name	Preference Flow
RISE UP AUSTRALIA PARTY	DLP	FFP	LPNP	DEM	ALP	WKP	ASXP	GRN
SENATOR ONLINE (INTERNET VOTING BILLS/ISSUES)	FFP	ASXP	WKP	DEM	DLP	GRN	ALP	LPNP
LIBERAL/THE NATIONALS	LPNP	FFP	DLP	ASXP	DEM	ALP	WKP	GRN
LIBERAL/THE NATIONALS	LPNP	DLP	FFP	ASXP	DEM	ALP	WKP	GRN
HELP END MARIJUANA PROHIBITION (HEMP) PARTY	DEM	ASXP	WKP	GRN	ALP	FFP	DLP	LPNP
HELP END MARIJUANA PROHIBITION (HEMP) PARTY	DEM	ASXP	WKP	ALP	GRN	FFP	DLP	LPNP
HELP END MARIJUANA PROHIBITION (HEMP) PARTY	DEM	ASXP	WKP	ALP	GRN	FFP	DLP	LPNP
FAMILY FIRST	FFP	DEM	DLP	WKP	LPNP	ALP	GRN	ASXP
COUNTRY ALLIANCE	ASXP	DLP	LPNP	ALP	FFP	DEM	WKP	GRN
SECULAR PARTY OF AUSTRALIA	DEM	ASXP	WKP	GRN	ALP	LPNP	DLP	FFP
NO CARBON TAX CLIMATE SCEPTICS	DLP	FFP	ASXP	WKP	DEM	ALP	LPNP	GRN
BANK REFORM PARTY	FFP	ASXP	DEM	WKP	DLP	ALP	LPNP	GRN
STABLE POPULATION PARTY	DEM	FFP	ASXP	WKP	GRN	ALP	LPNP	DLP
STABLE POPULATION PARTY	DEM	FFP	ASXP	WKP	ALP	LPNP	GRN	DLP
STABLE POPULATION PARTY	DEM	FFP	ASXP	WKP	LPNP	GRN	ALP	DLP
AUSTRALIAN FISHING AND LIFESTYLE PARTY	FFP	ASXP	DLP	DEM	LPNP	ALP	WKP	GRN
SHOOTERS AND FISHERS	FFP	ASXP	DLP	DEM	LPNP	ALP	WKP	GRN
BUILDING AUSTRALIA PARTY	DEM	FFP	WKP	ASXP	DLP	LPNP	ALP	GRN
AUSTRALIAN VOICE PARTY	ASXP	WKP	FFP	DEM	DLP	LPNP	ALP	GRN
AUSTRALIAN INDEPENDENTS	DEM	FFP	DLP	ASXP	WKP	GRN	LPNP	ALP
THE GREENS	GRN	WKP	ASXP	DEM	ALP	FFP	LPNP	DLP
	WKP	GRN	ALP	DEM	ASXP	LPNP	DLP	FFP
STOP CSG	DEM	ASXP	FFP	WKP	GRN	ALP	LPNP	DLP
KATTER'S AUSTRALIAN PARTY	DLP	FFP	WKP	LPNP	ALP	DEM	GRN	ASXP
PALMER UNITED PARTY	FFP	DEM	GRN	LPNP	WKP	ASXP	ALP	DLP
ANIMAL JUSTICE PARTY	DEM	WKP	ASXP	FFP	DLP	GRN	ALP	LPNP
AUSTRALIAN MOTORING ENTHUSIAST PARTY	FFP	ASXP	DEM	WKP	DLP	LPNP	ALP	GRN
AUSTRALIAN MOTORING ENTHUSIAST PARTY	FFP	ASXP	DEM	WKP	DLP	ALP	LPNP	GRN
THE WIKILEAKS PARTY	WKP	ASXP	DEM	GRN	ALP	LPNP	FFP	DLP
AUSTRALIAN DEMOCRATS	DEM	ASXP	FFP	WKP	GRN	ALP	LPNP	DLP
AUSTRALIAN DEMOCRATS	DEM	ASXP	FFP	WKP	GRN	LPNP	ALP	DLP
SEX PARTY	ASXP	WKP	DEM	ALP	GRN	LPNP	DLP	FFP
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY	ALP	GRN	ASXP	DEM	WKP	DLP	FFP	LPNP
DRUG LAW REFORM	DEM	ASXP	WKP	GRN	ALP	LPNP	FFP	DLP
DRUG LAW REFORM	DEM	ASXP	WKP	GRN	LPNP	ALP	FFP	DLP
BULLET TRAIN FOR AUSTRALIA	DEM	ASXP	FFP	DLP	WKP	ALP	GRN	LPNP
AUSTRALIAN CHRISTIANS	FFP	DLP	LPNP	ALP	DEM	WKP	GRN	ASXP
CITIZENS ELECTORAL COUNCIL	FFP	DLP	WKP	DEM	ALP	LPNP	GRN	ASXP
CITIZENS ELECTORAL COUNCIL	FFP	DLP	WKP	LPNP	DEM	ALP	GRN	ASXP
	DLP	WKP	GRN	DEM	ALP	ASXP	LPNP	FFP
SOCIALIST EQUALITY PARTY	LPNP	FFP	GRN	WKP	DEM	ASXP	ALP	DLP
SOCIALIST EQUALITY PARTY	ALP	DLP	LPNP	FFP	GRN	WKP	DEM	ASXP
SOCIALIST EQUALITY PARTY	GRN	WKP	DEM	ASXP	ALP	DLP	LPNP	FFP
PIRATE PARTY	DEM	WKP	GRN	ASXP	DLP	ALP	LPNP	FFP
DLP DEMOCRATIC LABOUR	DLP	FFP	LPNP	ALP	DEM	WKP	ASXP	GRN

 

NSW Senate Group Ticket Preference Flow

Sex Party has the potential of being elected in NSW based on analysis of the Group ticket preferences

The Liberal party is expected to win three Senate seats and the ALP should hold on to two seats,  The battle for the last seat will be determined on preferences with the Greens falling below quota. The Greens do not favour well on the preference flow with Wikileaks and Sex Party place a head of the Greens if the Greens are unable to secure a quota in their own right and the ALP surplus is low then Sex Party is best placed to win its first Senate seat in NSW

Analyses undertaken using the ABC Senate calculator based on 2010 Figures with adjustments to take into consideration new parties and shift in support from the ALP to the  Liberal Party.  Support for Wikileaks is expected to come primarily from the Greens Primary vote which explains why teh Greens are hell bent on attacking Wikileaks where possible.


See ABC State Seat Historical voting statistics used as a base in analysis

New South Wales

	Candidate	Party
1	Marise PAYNE	Liberal Party
2	Bob CARR	Australian Labor Party
3	John WILLIAMS	The Nationals
4	Doug CAMERON	Australian Labor Party
5	Arthur SINODINOS	Liberal Party
6	Graeme DUNNE	Australian Sex Party

Group	Group Name	Preference Flow
A	Liberal Democrats	WKP	DLP	FFP	LPNP	ASP	ALP	GRN
B	No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics	ASP	DLP	FFP	WKP	ALP	LPNP	GRN
C	Democratic Labour Party (DLP)	DLP	FFP	ASP	ALP	LPNP	WKP	GRN
D	Senator Online (Internet Voting Bills/Issues)	ASP	FFP	WKP	DLP	ALP	LPNP	GRN
E	Voluntary Euthanasia Party	WKP	GRN	DLP	ASP	FFP	ALP	LPNP
F		ALP	LPNP	GRN	WKP	DLP	ASP	FFP
G	Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party	WKP	GRN	ALP	ASP	FFP	DLP	LPNP
G	Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party	WKP	ALP	GRN	ASP	FFP	DLP	LPNP
G	Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party	WKP	GRN	ALP	ASP	FFP	DLP	LPNP
H	Carers Alliance	LPNP	WKP	DLP	FFP	ALP	ASP	GRN
I	The Wikileaks Party	WKP	ASP	GRN	ALP	FFP	DLP	LPNP
J	Rise Up Australia Party	DLP	FFP	ASP	LPNP	ALP	WKP	GRN
K	Future Party	WKP	GRN	ALP	LPNP	ASP	DLP	FFP
L	Christian Democratic Party (Fred Nile Group)	ASP	DLP	FFP	LPNP	ALP	WKP	GRN
M	Labor	ALP	GRN	ASP	WKP	DLP	FFP	LPNP
N	Katter's Australian Party	DLP	WKP	ASP	FFP	LPNP	ALP	GRN
O	Australian Voice	ASP	FFP	WKP	DLP	LPNP	ALP	GRN
P	Sex Party	WKP	ASP	GRN	ALP	LPNP	FFP	DLP
Q	Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party	ASP	FFP	DLP	ALP	LPNP	WKP	GRN
R	The Greens	GRN	WKP	ALP	LPNP	DLP	FFP	ASP
S	Palmer United Party	FFP	LPNP	DLP	WKP	GRN	ASP	ALP
T	Building Australia Party	FFP	ASP	WKP	DLP	LPNP	ALP	GRN
U	Uniting Australia Party	ASP	WKP	FFP	DLP	LPNP	ALP	GRN
V	Stop The Greens	WKP	DLP	FFP	LPNP	ASP	ALP	GRN
W	Smokers Rights	WKP	DLP	FFP	LPNP	ASP	ALP	GRN
X	Bullet Train For Australia	WKP	DLP	ASP	FFP	GRN	ALP	LPNP
Y	Liberal	LPNP	ASP	DLP	FFP	ALP	WKP	GRN
Z	Australian Protectionist Party	ASP	DLP	FFP	WKP	LPNP	ALP	GRN
AA	Animal Justice Party	FFP	WKP	GRN	ALP	LPNP	DLP	ASP
AB	Australia First Party	FFP	ASP	WKP	DLP	ALP	LPNP	GRN
AC	Australian Independents	ASP	FFP	WKP	DLP	GRN	LPNP	ALP
AD	Drug Law Reform	WKP	GRN	ALP	LPNP	DLP	FFP	ASP
AE	Socialist Equality Party	ALP	GRN	LPNP	FFP	ASP	DLP	WKP
AE	Socialist Equality Party	GRN	LPNP	FFP	ASP	DLP	WKP	ALP
AE	Socialist Equality Party	LPNP	FFP	ASP	DLP	WKP	ALP	GRN
AF	Australian Democrats	WKP	GRN	DLP	ALP	LPNP	FFP	ASP
AF	Australian Democrats	WKP	GRN	DLP	LPNP	ALP	FFP	ASP
AG		ALP	LPNP	GRN	WKP	ASP	FFP	DLP
AH	Family First Party	FFP	ASP	DLP	WKP	LPNP	ALP	GRN
AI	Stable Population Party	FFP	WKP	GRN	ALP	LPNP	DLP	ASP
AI	Stable Population Party	FFP	WKP	ALP	GRN	LPNP	DLP	ASP
AI	Stable Population Party	FFP	WKP	LPNP	GRN	ALP	DLP	ASP
AJ	Shooters and Fishers	ASP	FFP	DLP	ALP	LPNP	WKP	GRN
AK	Stop CSG	WKP	FFP	GRN	ALP	LPNP	DLP	ASP
AL	The Australian Republicans	LPNP	WKP	GRN	ALP	FFP	ASP	DLP
AM	Socialist Alliance	GRN	WKP	ALP	LPNP	DLP	ASP	FFP
AN	Non-Custodial Parents Party (Equal Parenting)	WKP	FFP	DLP	ASP	LPNP	ALP	GRN
AO	Pirate Party	GRN	WKP	DLP	ALP	ASP	LPNP	FFP
AP	Secular Party of Australia	WKP	GRN	ALP	LPNP	ASP	DLP	FFP
AQ	Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party	ASP	FFP	WKP	DLP	LPNP	ALP	GRN
AR	One Nation	DLP	FFP	ASP	WKP	LPNP	ALP	GRN
AR	One Nation	DLP	FFP	ASP	WKP	ALP	LPNP	GRN