Kennett's Ghost of Century Past (1999 Nightmare)

The position of Brumby's Labor bears an uncanny resemblance to that of the Coalition when it lost by a whisker in the '99 poll.

Source The Age

HERE'S the nightmare question keeping Victorian Labor awake in these last days: will the 2010 state election turn out to be a mirror image of 1999? The similarities are eerie - spookily so, for the Labor Party.

In 1999, the Labor opposition had to win an extra 13 seats to rob the Kennett government of its majority. Even ALP optimists doubted they could do it. Before the election, the party's best number-crunchers reckoned they could identify up to 11 seats that could fall, but could never quite find 13.

In 2010, the Liberal/Nationals opposition has to win an extra 13 seats to snatch back a majority in its own right. Even Coalition optimists doubt they will quite get there. On their calculations, they can quickly identify seven, eight or even nine seats that could fall, but none can confidently get to 13.

In 1999, the premier, Jeff Kennett, was seen as a superior politician to his sometimes unsure opposite number, Steve Bracks. Kennett's problem was that he was regarded as arrogant. Bracks's problem was that, likeable though he was, he was seen as a bit of a lightweight; certainly not in the Kennett league.

In 2010, Premier John Brumby is widely regarded as a superior leader to his rather diffident opposite number, Ted Baillieu. But again, the Premier's problem is perceived arrogance. And again, the Opposition Leader is seen as decent, but perhaps not quite in the Brumby league.