Showing posts with label Legislative Assembly. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Legislative Assembly. Show all posts

Saturday, December 4, 2010

Analysis shows Donkey Vote Delivered Government

Preliminary analysis shows that the Donkey vote delivered the Liberal Party government.

The Donkey vote is when a voters starts at the top of the ballot paper and preferences down the list not really taking into consideration the allocation of preferences.  Added to the Donkey vote is the so called Inverse Donkey Vote where voters choose the candidate of their choice and then fill in the rest of the ballot paper by starting at the top and working their way down numbering each vacant square sequentially

Detailed analysis of the 2008 Melbourne's election has indicated that the Donkey vote was crucial in electing  Robert Doyle to the position of Lord Mayor. Had Peter McMullin been placed at the top of the ballot he may have won the election.

Unlike in previous years, this year the order of the candidates' placement on the ballot paper was determined by a computer not the lotto style drawing of numbered balls from a barrel. There is no provision in the electoral Act for computers to undertake this process. Computers use a pseudo random number generator and selection is very much dependent on the sofware used to undertake the selection.  ( I certainly would not have supported a computerised selection - the process should be more open and transparenet to on lookers and observers)

The Donkey vote played a significant role in determining the lower-house seat of Bentleigh where Labor Rob Hudson was below the Liberal Party who had top of the list placement as such the Liberal Party had the benefit of the Donkey vote.  The Donkey vote can deliver up to three% or more votes. Had Rob Hudson been placed at the top of the Ballot paper or above the Liberal Candidate then the Liberals would not have won government.

In Tasmania they use a system of roting names on the ballot paper to try and mitigate the effects of the Donkey Vote.


In Prahran, Liberal Candidate Clem Newton-Brown also top of the list poll position but it is much harder to determine exactly what the donkey vote was in Prahran because the Liberal party handed out a rather deceitful How-to-vote card where they referenced the Greens by going straight down the ticket top to bottom. In Prahran the Greens (19.30%) and Sex Party (3.18%) both preference Labor's Tony Lupton (28.64%) on their How-to-vote cards. Combines all three parties represent 51.12% of the total formal vote yet the TPP shows a significant swing away from Labor who ended up receiving a TPP vote of  44.97%Some 27% percent of the Greens and Sex Party vote did not follow the parties ticket. How many voters donkey voted by just filling in the squares? We will not know until the VEC publish the distribution of preferences table.

Either way there is a compelling argument for single member electorates to adopt a Robson Rotation type system  of printing the ballot papers.

Friday, November 12, 2010

Clem Newton-Brown:Top of the Ballot in Prahran

Prahran

Map Thumbnail


Marginal Labor 3.6%

Liberal aspirant Clem Newton Brown has secured the all important Top-of-the-ballot position in Prahran.  Prahran is one of the most marginal inner city seats and on the must win list of the Liberal Party.  Being place on the top of the ballot gives Clem an advantage over his main opponent Tony Lupton.  Clem is expected not only to pick up the so called "Donkey vote" where voters vote top down the list of candidates but he will also collect the "inverse donkey vote" where voters vote 1 for the candidates of their choice and then number top to bottom filling in the blanks.  Laptop has the lessor favourite position of being place last on the ballot paper. he will benefit from the "Reverse Donkey vote" where people vote bottom up. Not a good position to be but better then in the middle of the pack.

Lupton will have to work that much harder to retain the seat of Prahran

Had the Labor Government introduce a "Robson Rotation" in the lower house - a system where the order of the ballot paper changes in the printing of the ballot papers - the donkey vote would not apply. To best understand the effect of the "Donkey vote" it is worth noting that the "Donkey vote"  elected Robert Doyle to the position of Lord Mayor. Had his opponent Peter McMullin had the top of the ballot he may have won.


Candidate                                 Party

NEWTON-BROWN, Clem LIBERAL
CHRISTOFAKIS, Mini AUSTRALIAN GREENS
ANDERSON, Katharine Independent
RONCHI, Simon FAMILY FIRST
VEGA, Christian SEX PARTY
LUPTON, Tony AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Luck of the Draw: Victorian Legislative Assembly

Legislative Assembly Draw of the ballot.  (The Donkey vote can be worth 1-2% - A handy margin in a close election)


List of cansidates available in Excel csv format: Assembly Districts

Albert Park District
Altona District
Ballarat East District
Ballarat West District
Bass District
Bayswater District
Bellarine District
Benalla District
Benambra District
Bendigo East District
Bendigo West District
Bentleigh District
Box Hill District
Brighton District
Broadmeadows District
Brunswick District
Bulleen District
Bundoora District
Burwood District
Carrum District
Caulfield District
Clayton District
Cranbourne District
Dandenong District
Derrimut District
Doncaster District
Eltham District
Essendon District
Evelyn District
Ferntree Gully District
Footscray District
Forest Hill District
Frankston District
Geelong District
Gembrook District
Gippsland East District
Gippsland South District
Hastings District
Hawthorn District
Ivanhoe District
Keilor District
Kew District
Kilsyth District
Kororoit District
Lara District
Lowan District
Lyndhurst District
Macedon District
Malvern District
Melbourne District
Melton District
Mildura District
Mill Park District
Mitcham District
Monbulk District
Mordialloc District
Mornington District
Morwell District
Mount Waverley District
Mulgrave District
Murray Valley District
Narracan District
Narre Warren North District
Narre Warren South District
Nepean District
Niddrie District
Northcote District
Oakleigh District
Pascoe Vale District
Polwarth District
Prahran District
Preston District
Richmond District
Ripon District
Rodney District
Sandringham District
Scoresby District
Seymour District
Shepparton District
South Barwon District
South-West Coast District
Swan Hill District
Tarneit District
Thomastown District
Warrandyte District
Williamstown District
Yan Yean District
Yuroke District