Poll: Voting System

Essential Research

Comment: 48% to 44% of voters favour a preferential voting system over a first past thial te post ballot.   Those favoriong an Optional Preferential ballot do not realise or undertand the impact of optional preferential voting on the counting of the results of the election.  In 2010 the Victorian Electoral Commission advocated that voters only number one to five below-the-line.  The commission should be advocting that voters allocate a preference for all candidates in order of the voters' preferred choice.  In advoctaing the minimum the Commision devalued the value of the vote and became an active particpant in the electiion outcome as oposed to being independent and unaligned.



Q. Which of the following voting systems would you prefer when voting for the Federal House of Representatives.

• A preferential voting system where voters rank all candidates in order of preference.
• An optional preferential system where voters can rank one, some, or all candidates in order of preference.
• A “first past the post” system, where voters only vote for one candidate and the candidate with the most votes wins.

	Total	Vote Labor	Vote Lib/Nat	Vote Greens
Preferential	22%	31%	18%	30%
Optional preferential	26%	26%	24%	33%
First past the post	44%	40%	53%	31%
Don’t know	7%	4%	4%	6%

Of the three voting options given, 44% favoured “first past the post”, 26% optional preferential and 22% the current preferential system.
Optional preferential was most preferred by those aged under 35 (35%) while older groups strongly favoured first past the post (50% of aged 35-54 and 54% of aged 55+).

Poll: Voluntary Voting

Essential Research

Q. If voting at elections was voluntary (i.e. not compulsory) – how likely would you be to vote in the next Federal election?

	Total	Vote Labor	Vote Lib/Nat	Vote Greens
Total definitely/probably vote	82%	85%	89%	78%
Total definitely/probably not vote	14%	12%	9%	19%
Would definitely vote	59%	62%	65%	61%
Would probably vote	23%	23%	24%	17%
Probably wouldn’t vote	10%	8%	7%	18%
Definitely wouldn’t vote	4%	4%	2%	1%
Don’t know	4%	3%	1%	3%

82% said they would definitely or probably vote if voting was voluntary. 14% said they definitely or probably would not vote.
Coalition and Labor voters were more likely to vote and Greens voters somewhat less likely.
By age, 73% of those aged under 35 said they would vote compared to 82% of those aged 35-54 and 91% of those aged 55+.
The estimated vote excluding those who would probably or definitely not vote produces a first preference vote of 52% Liberal/National, 30% Labor, 11% Greens and 7% other. The two-party preferred estimate is 58% Liberal/National and 42% Labor (compared to the current estimate of 57%/43%) – suggesting that voluntary voting would only very slightly advantage the Coalition.

Essential Research: Latest Polling

Essential Research has published its latest polling.  It has the ALP trailing the Coalition primary vote 32% to 46% (44% to 56% TPP) respectively.

Equally alarming is the economic trend which shows Australia's strong economic performance backed up by the Mining sector and good economic management by the Federal Government is not being reflected in consumer confidence.  Much of this has to do with the Baby boomers entering retirement as the burden on taxation beocmes greater along with the ned to make ends meet on what is a igherning peronsal housld budget.  This is not helped by profit takers who are benefiting from the high dollar and massive increases in supermarket pricing over the last two months.  Our dollar is performing well yet the price of energy and petrol is increasing.

On the political front the change in the Senate with the Greens claining balance of power (Fact is the Greens olnly hold the blanace of power if the Coalition opposes Government inititives - which has more to do with political opportunism then what is the best policy for the Nation.)

Poll: Essential Labor 51% to Liberal/National Party 49% (TPP) - Greens 10%

Essential Research latest national polling shows Labor: 51, Liberal 49 (TPP) with minor fluctuations  in primary support. A noticeable consolidation to the main parties with others and  independents dropping off 2 percentage points.

Party	6 months ago	4    weeks ago	2   weeks ago	Last week	This week
Labor	38	40	41	39	39
Liberal	41	42	41	42	42
Nationals	2	2	3	4	3
Coalition	43	44	44	46	45
Greens	10	9	8	8	10
Others	9	7	7	7	7

Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

This week’s Essential Research poll shows the the Greens losing ground to the coalition with the coalition showing a two-party lead for the first time since the agency commenced polling in early 2008. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 46 per cent, for a two-party lead of 51-49, while Labor is down two points to 39 per cent. Support for the Greens has  slumped from 11% six months ago to 8% in the latest poll

First Preference/Leaning to	6 months	4 weeks	2 weeks	Last week	This week
Liberal	39%	42%	41%	41%	42%
National	3%	2%	3%	3%	4%
Labor	37%	41%	41%	41%	39%
Greens	11%	8%	8%	8%	8%
Other/independent	10%	7%	7%	7%	7%