Poll Stats: Northern Metro - 4115 Green voters waste their vote

The table below shows the number of ballot papers based on candidates primary vote and distribution at conclusion of the count for Northern Metropolitan Region

4,115 Green voters ended up wasting their vote by not expressing a preference for every candidate with a total of 7,799 exhausted ballotts added to the informal vote total.

		Ticket votes		Below the line votes
ID	Candidate	ALP	LIB	Primary	ALP	LIB	<>
1	STUART, Joanne	1774	0	477	78	32	367
2	LEE, April	0	0	80	17	9	54
3	JANSON, Vickie	0	3081	373	40	91	242
4	ARTHUR, Saleem	0	0	79	11	14	54
5	MAYNE, Stephen	0	2046	1763	722	317	724
6	PICCININI, Paula	0	0	53	12	8	33
7	CONLON, Andrew	0	8577	401	38	164	199
8	KERIN, Peter	0	0	104	11	15	78
9	DAWSON, Rod	0	0	50	6	13	31
10	ARCHIBALD, Kevin	1884	0	161	30	62	69
11	MORRIS, Chris	0	0	27	7	7	13
12	BARBER, Greg	66222	0	6700	3849	551	2300
13	BHATHAL, Alexandra Kaur	0	0	1178	574	59	545
14	BRINDLEY, Fraser	0	0	367	148	23	196
15	RATNAM, Samantha Shantini	0	0	669	329	31	309
16	AIR, Alister	0	0	512	243	52	217
17	PATTEN, Fiona	12569	0	1594	741	305	548
18	LEITCH, Douglas	0	0	127	46	20	61
19	KAVANAGH, John	0	9668	663	112	145	406
20	THATCHER, Monica	0	0	83	14	7	62
21	CASHIN, Bridget	0	0	65	15	3	47
22	ANDERSON, Angela	0	0	123	14	16	93
23	TRAVERS, Michael	0	0	53	13	4	36
24	MIKAKOS, Jenny	161246	0	2656	2202	75	379
25	ELASMAR, Nazih	0	0	470	373	13	84
26	MURPHY, Nathan	0	0	228	228
27	PLATT, Rhiannon	0	0	209	157	7	45
28	SMYTHE, Peter	0	0	450	334	27	89
29	GUY, Matthew	0	104332	1691	22	1463	206
30	ONDARCHIE, Craig	0	0	245		245
31	GRANLEESE, Sam	0	0	221	13	158	50
32	PARSONS, Daniel	0	0	184	10	129	45
33	TOWNSON, Jemma	0	0	232	5	190	37
34	WHITEHEAD, Adrian	0	0	348	118	50	180
	Total	243695	127704	22636	10532	4305	7799

VEXNEWS Tweets acknowledgment of Northern Metro prediction

vexnews: @democracyATwork was right as it turned out, w/ ALP conceding defeat in Vic LegCo north metro count, still v. tight in west metro #springst

Divine intervention. Greens out-poll Mayne 120 votes ahead

In an expected turn around latest count data has the Greens 120 votes ahead of Stephen Mayne's Group C. 

Corporate Australia sighs a sigh of relief as Mayne faces defeat for the n'th time.

ABC Analyst, Antony Greens' calculator has not factored in Adrian Whitehead's preferences, which we are told all flow to the Greens giving them the winning margin.  With Mayne out of contention the Liberal Party are likely to be the victor in the race to the last position against ALPs Nathan Murphy.  Liberal, Craig Ondarche, is currently 6,800 votes ahead of Murphy with an estimated 40,000 votes to go the ALP would have to pick the Lyon's share of votes outstanding to be in contention. Some say it is possible but the odds are against Murphy at this stage.

If the Liberal Party win the fifth Northern Metropolitan  seat  the LNP coalition will have an absolute majority on both houses.

Mayne Edges Forward - Split in Religious Unity - Towards Victory

With an additional 10,000 votes added to the Tally corporate attack dog, Stephen Mayne, has moved forward 200 votes to just over 1,000 theoretical vote lead in the race to the firth spot.

In what is an extraordinarily well placed set of preferences Mayne picks up Group A preferences which put him above the Greens No. 2 Candidate, who when  excluded from the count leap frogs over Family First Whose votes flow on to Mayne instead of the DLP and Christian Party, on what some might say is a division of faith. Catholic versus Evangelists.

Normally the three Christian Parties preference each other but not in this case. Mayne has manged to divide them and come up trumps. Mayne with the Support of Family First out-polls the combined vote of the DLP and Fred Niles Christian Party who then add to Mayne's snowballing total eventually out-polling the ALP's Nathan Murphy who when excluded goes on to elect Mayne to the fifth spot

It's still early and there are an anticipated 50,000 votes to be added into the pool, mainly from the inner city regions, which hopefully will pickup the Greens' overall vote.  If they can secure over 1.10 quotas the Mayne juggernaught may come to a crashing halt early on in the count in which case the Liberal Party will elect a second canidate to represent the Northern Metropolitan and in doing so will give the LNP Coalition absolute control of the Victorian Upperhouse.

If Mayne survives the count  this will be a one for the history books that will exclipse Family First's preference deal that saw Stephen Fielding with just 2% primary support elected to the Victorian Senate in 2004 .  Mayne has just 1.02% primary support.