Northern Victoria: The flaw in the system ignored in Antony Green's analysis

What Antony Green's analysis fails to take into consideration is that the ALP ticket vote is inflated in value by 1117 votes as a result of the flawed method used by the VEC in calculating the Surplus Transfer Value and the Greens vote is devalued by 1134 votes.

This in turn inflates Country Alliances vote at the end of the count making it that much closer then it actually is. the other flaw in the counting system is the method of segmentation.

There is no logic in segmenting the count in distributing excluded candidates preferences. All preferences should be distributed in a single transaction.

The system of segmentation was designed to facilitate a manual count and limit the effect of the distortion in the method of calculating the Surplus Transfer value. Both processors are wrong and flawed.

In Queensland 2007Senate election Larissa Waters was denied representation as a result of the system of segmentation.

If we are to have an accurate and fair electoral system we will need to correct these flaws and introduce a reiterative counting system that minimises the distortion inn the count whilst better reflecting the voters intention.

Posted by: democracyAtWork | December 18, 2010 at 08:01 PM

In Antony Green's breakdown analysis of Northern Victoria Green failed to take into account the distortion in the way in which the Victorian Legislative Council is counted.  Concealed within Green's data is the number of ballot papers and their value attributed to the ALPs second candidate.  As a result of the method used in calculating the Surplus Transfer Value the ALP ticket vote actually increases in value at the expense of the Greens and other minor candidates full value votes

Vote source	Papers	Papers %	Value	Sum	Value %
ALP #1	104659	77.23%	0.3805	39825	56.41%
ALP (BTL)	749	0.55%	1.0000	749	1.06%
CA	13	0.01%	1.0000	13	0.02%
CDP	26	0.02%	1.0000	26	0.04%
DLP	72	0.05%	1.0000	72	0.10%
FF	63	0.05%	1.0000	63	0.09%
GRN	29548	21.80%	1.0000	29548	41.85%
LNP #1	46	0.03%	0.6560	30	0.04%
LNP #2	96	0.07%	0.3146	30	0.04%
LNP (BTL)	33	0.02%	1.0000	33	0.05%
SEX	212	0.16%	1.0000	212	0.30%
sum	135517	100%		70601	100%
Quota				64946
Surplus				5655	0.0417282
Vote source	Ballot Papers		Paper Based STV	Value Based STV	%	Diff
ALP #1	104659	77.23%	4367	3190	56.41%	1177
ALP (BTL)	749	0.55%	31	60	1.06%	-29
CA	13	0.01%	1	1	0.02%	0
CDP	26	0.02%	1	2	0.04%	-1
DLP	72	0.05%	3	6	0.10%	-3
FF	63	0.05%	3	5	0.09%	-2
GRN	29548	21.80%	1233	2367	41.85%	-1134
LNP #1	46	0.07%	4	2	0.04%	2
LNP #2	96	0.03%	2	2	0.04%	0
LNP (BTL)	33	0.02%	1	3	0.05%	-1
SEX	212	0.16%	9	17	0.30%	-8
sum	135517	100.00%	5655	5655	100.00%

Instead of winning by a margin of 3,532 votes (in a value based count) the VEC paper based formula gives the Liberal Party a reduced margin of 1,407 votes. An overall devaluation of an equivilent 2,125 votes

The following table highlights in more detail the extent of distortion in the method used to calculate the Surplus Transfer Value by showing a breakdown comparison of the count at the point where the ALP  second candidate is elected and the value of the vote following the distribution of the ALP surplus. The first data set shows the number of ballot papers, the second the reuslkts of the VEC paper based formula and the third the results using a weighted value based formula.

Poll Stats: Northern Metro - 4115 Green voters waste their vote

The table below shows the number of ballot papers based on candidates primary vote and distribution at conclusion of the count for Northern Metropolitan Region

4,115 Green voters ended up wasting their vote by not expressing a preference for every candidate with a total of 7,799 exhausted ballotts added to the informal vote total.

		Ticket votes		Below the line votes
ID	Candidate	ALP	LIB	Primary	ALP	LIB	<>
1	STUART, Joanne	1774	0	477	78	32	367
2	LEE, April	0	0	80	17	9	54
3	JANSON, Vickie	0	3081	373	40	91	242
4	ARTHUR, Saleem	0	0	79	11	14	54
5	MAYNE, Stephen	0	2046	1763	722	317	724
6	PICCININI, Paula	0	0	53	12	8	33
7	CONLON, Andrew	0	8577	401	38	164	199
8	KERIN, Peter	0	0	104	11	15	78
9	DAWSON, Rod	0	0	50	6	13	31
10	ARCHIBALD, Kevin	1884	0	161	30	62	69
11	MORRIS, Chris	0	0	27	7	7	13
12	BARBER, Greg	66222	0	6700	3849	551	2300
13	BHATHAL, Alexandra Kaur	0	0	1178	574	59	545
14	BRINDLEY, Fraser	0	0	367	148	23	196
15	RATNAM, Samantha Shantini	0	0	669	329	31	309
16	AIR, Alister	0	0	512	243	52	217
17	PATTEN, Fiona	12569	0	1594	741	305	548
18	LEITCH, Douglas	0	0	127	46	20	61
19	KAVANAGH, John	0	9668	663	112	145	406
20	THATCHER, Monica	0	0	83	14	7	62
21	CASHIN, Bridget	0	0	65	15	3	47
22	ANDERSON, Angela	0	0	123	14	16	93
23	TRAVERS, Michael	0	0	53	13	4	36
24	MIKAKOS, Jenny	161246	0	2656	2202	75	379
25	ELASMAR, Nazih	0	0	470	373	13	84
26	MURPHY, Nathan	0	0	228	228
27	PLATT, Rhiannon	0	0	209	157	7	45
28	SMYTHE, Peter	0	0	450	334	27	89
29	GUY, Matthew	0	104332	1691	22	1463	206
30	ONDARCHIE, Craig	0	0	245		245
31	GRANLEESE, Sam	0	0	221	13	158	50
32	PARSONS, Daniel	0	0	184	10	129	45
33	TOWNSON, Jemma	0	0	232	5	190	37
34	WHITEHEAD, Adrian	0	0	348	118	50	180
	Total	243695	127704	22636	10532	4305	7799

Brumby's Loss: An election that was theirs to win on preferences

It was always going to be hard fro the labor government to win a consecutive fourth term. It ha a number of issues working against it. Myki, the drought, public transport and a perception of time.   But the truth is Labor lost the election due to administrative error in the campaign and the process leading up to the election.

It's greatest failure was not negotiating better preference deals with the DLP and Sex party.  Had the ALP manged to secure a better deal from the DLP and Sex Party alone it would have retained office and the upper-house.

The ALP lost focus and control in negotiating preferences.  Its only support came from the Greens who were the ALPs main competitor in the inner city region.  The ALP was always going to attract 80% of the Greens preferences but it was no assured of securing preferences from other minor parties.  Parties that could have helped Labor retain office .  Labor could have traded off support to the DLP in Western Victoria in exchange for support else where.  if it had secure bits DLP and Sex Party support in Southern Metropolitan, or DLP support in Northern and Western Metropolitan the ALP would have won three extra upper-house seats.  The ALP did not even take into consideration the upper-house.  A fatel mistake.  It could have traded off support for teh DLP for support in teh lower hosue. It would have also retained Bentleigh had it had managed to secure DLP preferences.  Support from the DLP came at a price but the party would have retained government. without it they lost all.

The decision to introduce Optional Preferential; voting and the VEC's failure to encourage voters to fill in all squares played a significant part in the ALPs loss in Western Metropolitan but this was not the reason the ALP lost in Northern Metropolitan or Southern Metropolitan. It lost because it had no support from other players and poor preferences

Presiding Officers Ousted: Both Speaker and President lose office

Both the former Speaker of the Legislative Assembly and the President of the Legislative Council were defeated in the November election.  The declaration of election results for the Western Metropolitan regions has resulted in Bob Smith being ousted from office along with Jenny Lindell. 

Bob Smith, who was previously the member for South Eastern Metropolitan Region, had  decided to forsake running as the ALPs third candidate in his old electorate and instead opted to run in Western Metropolitan in what was considered to be a safer seat. Had the previous State government not adopted optional preferential voting or voters filled in all preferences Bob Smith may have survived. As it turned out South Eastern was a better bet with the ALP retaining three upper house seats and Bob Smith as a result of the optional preferential rule change lost office.

Western Metro: BTL Vote Stats

Table showing primary vote and distribution party of second preference

ID	Candidate	Primary	SEX	ALP	FF	DLP	GRN	LIB
1	MURRAY, Joël	1378	881	306	63	28	82	18
2	DAVIS, Merinda	536	277	127	44	15	42	31
3	PAKULA, Martin	2686	109	2073	169	132	157	46
4	EIDEH, Khalil	679	27	503	53	59	23	14
5	SMITH, Bob	557	23	443	37	29	19	6
6	REES, Llewellyn	723	17	551	25	29	72	29
7	SPINNER, Claudine	652	11	499	39	29	62	12
8	MUMBY, Daniel	635	24	65	410	63	37	36
9	GARAY, Lisa	142	6	31	59	21	16	9
10	FARRELL, Mark	631	23	38	39	458	49	24
11	MAZZARELLA, Stephanie	274	7	28	21	179	26	13
12	BYRNE, Georga	121	4	14	7	76	17	3
13	NOTARO, Samuel	89	1	4	4	64	7	9
14	KAVANAGH, Marguerita	113	3	13	3	79	10	5
15	HARTLAND, Colleen	3439	99	272	30	62	2883	93
16	HUMPHREYS, Robert Allan	428	21	39	5	28	312	23
17	INGHAM, Liz	595	23	49	10	22	478	13
18	CRAWFORD, Simon	199	8	12	3	10	155	11
19	GALE, Owen	205	4	12	11	9	161	8
20	FINN, Bernie	2051	38	56	82	79	115	1681
21	ELSBURY, Andrew	386	9	14	16	13	18	316
22	FAIRBAIRN, Victoria	603	12	20	26	20	65	460
23	BARTH, Jeremy	269	11	4	15	7	27	205
24	KENNY, William	309	9	9	9	10	15	257

Table showing number of ballot papers from each primary vote distributed to last remaining party candidates

ID	Candidate	Primary	SEX	ALP	FF	DLP	GRN	LIB	Exhaust
1	MURRAY, Joël	1378	1378
2	DAVIS, Merinda	536	308	45	58	10	36	25	54
3	PAKULA, Martin	2686	127	1958	155	135	204	31	76
4	EIDEH, Khalil	679	27	473	43	29	27	18	62
5	SMITH, Bob	557		557
6	REES, Llewellyn	723	32	471	39	17	111	17	36
7	SPINNER, Claudine	652	19	457	40	16	78	6	36
8	MUMBY, Daniel	635			635
9	GARAY, Lisa	142	10	16	65	16	10	10	15
10	FARRELL, Mark	631				631
11	MAZZARELLA, Stephanie	274	7	12	28	148	23	12	44
12	BYRNE, Georga	121	3	7	12	69	16	2	12
13	NOTARO, Samuel	89	3	9	6	47	8	5	11
14	KAVANAGH, Marguerita	113	8	7	5	69	11	6	7
15	HARTLAND, Colleen	3439					3439
16	HUMPHREYS, Robert Allan	428	26	21	13	10	314	14	30
17	INGHAM, Liz	595	31	14	18	8	493	8	23
18	CRAWFORD, Simon	199	17	12	14	4	127	13	12
19	GALE, Owen	205	13	9	16	7	144	8	8
20	FINN, Bernie	2051	44	18	101	67	101	1676	44
21	ELSBURY, Andrew	386						386
22	FAIRBAIRN, Victoria	603	26	9	42	9	37	438	42
23	BARTH, Jeremy	269	15	7	25	5	12	196	9
24	KENNY, William	309	10	7	16	9	5	250	12