Friday, December 24, 2010

Julian Assange assassination: Conspiracy of misuse and abuse of government

The following interview between David Frost and Julian Assange. A clear case of misuse and abuse by government forces out to assassinate the whistleblowers' publisher.

Monday, December 20, 2010

Newspoll: End of year poll stats

The Australian had published its end of year News Poll.  It shows an increase in ALP support in Queensland since the August Federal election.  Ring out the old and bring in the new.  A year that Labor would prefer  to forget.

Saturday, December 18, 2010

Northern Victoria: The flaw in the system ignored in Antony Green's analysis

What Antony Green's analysis fails to take into consideration is that the ALP ticket vote is inflated in value by 1117 votes as a result of the flawed method used by the VEC in calculating the Surplus Transfer Value and the Greens vote is devalued by 1134 votes.

This in turn inflates Country Alliances vote at the end of the count making it that much closer then it actually is. the other flaw in the counting system is the method of segmentation.

There is no logic in segmenting the count in distributing excluded candidates preferences. All preferences should be distributed in a single transaction.

The system of segmentation was designed to facilitate a manual count and limit the effect of the distortion in the method of calculating the Surplus Transfer value. Both processors are wrong and flawed.

In Queensland 2007Senate election Larissa Waters was denied representation as a result of the system of segmentation.

If we are to have an accurate and fair electoral system we will need to correct these flaws and introduce a reiterative counting system that minimises the distortion inn the count whilst better reflecting the voters intention.

In Antony Green's breakdown analysis of Northern Victoria Green failed to take into account the distortion in the way in which the Victorian Legislative Council is counted.  Concealed within Green's data is the number of ballot papers and their value attributed to the ALPs second candidate.  As a result of the method used in calculating the Surplus Transfer Value the ALP ticket vote actually increases in value at the expense of the Greens and other minor candidates full value votes

Vote source Papers Papers % Value Sum Value %
ALP #1 104659 77.23% 0.3805 39825 56.41%
ALP (BTL) 749 0.55% 1.0000 749 1.06%
CA 13 0.01% 1.0000 13 0.02%
CDP 26 0.02% 1.0000 26 0.04%
DLP 72 0.05% 1.0000 72 0.10%
FF 63 0.05% 1.0000 63 0.09%
GRN 29548 21.80% 1.0000 29548 41.85%
LNP #1 46 0.03% 0.6560 30 0.04%
LNP #2 96 0.07% 0.3146 30 0.04%
LNP (BTL) 33 0.02% 1.0000 33 0.05%
SEX 212 0.16% 1.0000 212 0.30%

sum 135517 100%
70601 100%



5655 0.0417282

Vote source Ballot Papers
Paper Based STV Value Based STV % Diff
ALP #1 104659 77.23% 4367 3190 56.41% 1177
ALP (BTL) 749 0.55% 31 60 1.06% -29
CA 13 0.01% 1 1 0.02% 0
CDP 26 0.02% 1 2 0.04% -1
DLP 72 0.05% 3 6 0.10% -3
FF 63 0.05% 3 5 0.09% -2
GRN 29548 21.80% 1233 2367 41.85% -1134
LNP #1 46 0.07% 4 2 0.04% 2
LNP #2 96 0.03% 2 2 0.04% 0
LNP (BTL) 33 0.02% 1 3 0.05% -1
SEX 212 0.16% 9 17 0.30% -8

sum 135517 100.00% 5655 5655 100.00%

Instead of winning by a margin of 3,532 votes (in a value based count) the VEC paper based formula gives the Liberal Party a reduced margin of 1,407 votes. An overall devaluation of an equivilent 2,125 votes

The following table highlights in more detail the extent of distortion in the method used to calculate the Surplus Transfer Value by showing a breakdown comparison of the count at the point where the ALP  second candidate is elected and the value of the vote following the distribution of the ALP surplus. The first data set shows the number of ballot papers, the second the reuslkts of the VEC paper based formula and the third the results using a weighted value based formula.

Western Metro; The flaw in the system ignored in Antony Green's analysis

The method used in calculating the results of the Victorian Legislative Council is flawed. It is not accurate and is semi proportional at best.

If you applied a reiterative count where the ballot is reset and the votes redistributed on every exclusion with a weighted calculation of the surplus transfer value the results are somewhat different to that which Antony Green has presented.

There are 422588 ballot papers

If you recount the vote excluding all candidates but the last six standing (3 ALP, 2 Liberals and 1 Green) and distribute all the votes based on the order of preferences allocated to continuing candidates .

1205 ballot papers exhaust without expressing a valid preference.

The quota based on the adjusted primary vote is 70229

After redistributing preferences and surpluses using a value based formula in calculating the surplus transfer value

The following are elected with quota
PAKULA, Martin 70229
EIDEH, Khalil 70229
FINN, Bernie 70229
ELSBURY, Andrew 70229

Last vacancy
HARTLAND, Colleen 70237
SMITH, Bob 69419

Exhausted with value 811

The gap between Hartland and Smith is 818 votes not 2012 as is derived using the VEC counting method.

Similar distortions were recorded in the 2007 Queensland Senate which resulted in Larissa Waters denied being elected to the sixth Queensland Senate spot.

The system in place does not accurately reflect the voters intention.

The distortion in the count arises from the method of calculating the surplus transfer value and the method of segmentation in redistributing excluded candidates votes.

The system was designed to facilitate a manual count. With the use of electronic counting there is no justification or merit in maintaining the flawed counting system. A reiterative weighted count such as the Wright System or Meek produces a much more accurate reflection of the voters intentions.

Poll Stats: Northern Metro - 4115 Green voters waste their vote

The table below shows the number of ballot papers based on candidates primary vote and distribution at conclusion of the count for Northern Metropolitan Region

4,115 Green voters ended up wasting their vote by not expressing a preference for every candidate with a total of 7,799 exhausted ballotts added to the informal vote total.

Ticket votes Below the line votes
ID Candidate ALP LIB Primary ALP LIB <>
1 STUART, Joanne 1774 0 477 78 32 367
2 LEE, April 0 0 80 17 9 54
3 JANSON, Vickie 0 3081 373 40 91 242
4 ARTHUR, Saleem 0 0 79 11 14 54
5 MAYNE, Stephen 0 2046 1763 722 317 724
6 PICCININI, Paula 0 0 53 12 8 33
7 CONLON, Andrew 0 8577 401 38 164 199
8 KERIN, Peter 0 0 104 11 15 78
9 DAWSON, Rod 0 0 50 6 13 31
10 ARCHIBALD, Kevin 1884 0 161 30 62 69
11 MORRIS, Chris 0 0 27 7 7 13
12 BARBER, Greg 66222 0 6700 3849 551 2300
13 BHATHAL, Alexandra Kaur 0 0 1178 574 59 545
14 BRINDLEY, Fraser 0 0 367 148 23 196
15 RATNAM, Samantha Shantini     0 0 669 329 31 309
16 AIR, Alister 0 0 512 243 52 217
17 PATTEN, Fiona 12569 0 1594 741 305 548
18 LEITCH, Douglas 0 0 127 46 20 61
19 KAVANAGH, John 0 9668 663 112 145 406
20 THATCHER, Monica 0 0 83 14 7 62
21 CASHIN, Bridget 0 0 65 15 3 47
22 ANDERSON, Angela 0 0 123 14 16 93
23 TRAVERS, Michael 0 0 53 13 4 36
24 MIKAKOS, Jenny 161246 0 2656 2202 75 379
25 ELASMAR, Nazih 0 0 470 373 13 84
26 MURPHY, Nathan 0 0 228 228

27 PLATT, Rhiannon 0 0 209 157 7 45
28 SMYTHE, Peter 0 0 450 334 27 89
29 GUY, Matthew 0 104332 1691 22 1463 206
30 ONDARCHIE, Craig 0 0 245
31 GRANLEESE, Sam 0 0 221 13 158 50
32 PARSONS, Daniel 0 0 184 10 129 45
33 TOWNSON, Jemma 0 0 232 5 190 37
34 WHITEHEAD, Adrian 0 0 348 118 50 180

Total 243695 127704 22636 10532 4305 7799

Friday, December 17, 2010

Northern Victoria: Tully's Dodgy Tally

In another example of just how shoddy Tully's Tally is were compare the information published by the VEC for Northern Victoria.

On the Official VEC published website we extract the following information

Recheck votes

Total Enrolment
as at close of rolls:
Formal Votes:389721
Informal Votes:11177 (2.79% of the total votes)
Total Votes:400898 (93.40% of the total enrolment as at the close of rolls rechecked)

Recheck first preference votes

the line
the line
Total votes% of
formal vote
ACOUNTRY ALLIANCE24537212326660 6.84% 0.41
CFAMILY FIRST1076767211439 2.94% 0.18
DAUSTRALIAN GREENS27891331931210 8.01% 0.48
ELIBERAL / THE NATIONALS1865664335190901 48.98% 2.94
FAUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY1034792311105790 27.15% 1.63
GSEX PARTY1417271014882 3.82% 0.23
HD.L.P. - DEMOCRATIC LABOR PARTY58804096289 1.61% 0.10

The total number of formal votes recorded in the above table shows


375404 14317 389721

When you examine the final details published by the VEC you get a different total? 59 votes difference in the total formal votes recorded. 
Formal Informal Total
375,457 14,216 389,673 11,220 400,893

Clearly there is something wrong with the VEC procedures as the tally does not tally. The data certainly looks doctored and begs the question how good is the 13 million dollar sofwtare that the VEC invested in. Looks mickey mouse to us. Oh and the BTL data files does not match up either, which might explain why Steve tully did not want to make this data available. It's rule of thumb when it comes to Tully's Tally. Tully's near enough is good enough approcah is not really good enough.

Thursday, December 16, 2010

Brumby's Loss: An election that was theirs to win on preferences

It was always going to be hard fro the labor government to win a consecutive fourth term. It ha a number of issues working against it. Myki, the drought, public transport and a perception of time.   But the truth is Labor lost the election due to administrative error in the campaign and the process leading up to the election.

It's greatest failure was not negotiating better preference deals with the DLP and Sex party.  Had the ALP manged to secure a better deal from the DLP and Sex Party alone it would have retained office and the upper-house.

The ALP lost focus and control in negotiating preferences.  Its only support came from the Greens who were the ALPs main competitor in the inner city region.  The ALP was always going to attract 80% of the Greens preferences but it was no assured of securing preferences from other minor parties.  Parties that could have helped Labor retain office .  Labor could have traded off support to the DLP in Western Victoria in exchange for support else where.  if it had secure bits DLP and Sex Party support in Southern Metropolitan, or DLP support in Northern and Western Metropolitan the ALP would have won three extra upper-house seats.  The ALP did not even take into consideration the upper-house.  A fatel mistake.  It could have traded off support for teh DLP for support in teh lower hosue. It would have also retained Bentleigh had it had managed to secure DLP preferences.  Support from the DLP came at a price but the party would have retained government. without it they lost all.

The decision to introduce Optional Preferential; voting and the VEC's failure to encourage voters to fill in all squares played a significant part in the ALPs loss in Western Metropolitan but this was not the reason the ALP lost in Northern Metropolitan or Southern Metropolitan. It lost because it had no support from other players and poor preferences

Presiding Officers Ousted: Both Speaker and President lose office

Both the former Speaker of the Legislative Assembly and the President of the Legislative Council were defeated in the November election.  The declaration of election results for the Western Metropolitan regions has resulted in Bob Smith being ousted from office along with Jenny Lindell. 

Bob Smith, who was previously the member for South Eastern Metropolitan Region, had  decided to forsake running as the ALPs third candidate in his old electorate and instead opted to run in Western Metropolitan in what was considered to be a safer seat. Had the previous State government not adopted optional preferential voting or voters filled in all preferences Bob Smith may have survived. As it turned out South Eastern was a better bet with the ALP retaining three upper house seats and Bob Smith as a result of the optional preferential rule change lost office.

2010 Victorian State Election - Legislative Council - BTL preference data files

We have published a full set of the below-the-line preference data files for the Victorian Legislative Council  that Victoria's Chief Electoral Commissioner, Steve Tully, refused to publish during the progress of the count.

13 Million dollars spent on software development and the VEC is unable or unwilling to make this crucial data available? Why?

Each zip file contains both the preliminary data set and the final data set as supplied by the Victorian Electoral Commission after the completion of the ballot.

  • Eastern Metro BTL Preference (687k) Download
  • Eastern Victoria BTL Preference (664)k Download
  • Northern Metro BTL Preference (1232k) Download
  • Northern Victoria BTL Preference (704k) Download
  • South Eastern Metro BTL Preference (549k) Download
  • Southern Metro BTL Preference (1025k) Download
  • Western Metro BTL Preference (806k) Download
  • Western Victoria BTL Preference (590k) Download

In 2006 Steve Tully refused to provide copies of the Legislative Council below-the line data files,  (We had to make an  FOI application for the data and then he only provided count B data for Western Metropolitan. When requested by the Victorian Parliamentary Electoral Matters Committee to provide copies of the Count A data files, Steve Tully claimed that the data had been destroyed and overwritten and that no backup copies were made,  An extraordinary claim given that its costs millions of dollars to collate this information and it is hard to believe that any professional organisation would not have implemented backup procedures of the requested data. At a cost of 13 million dollars in software development it is hard to believe that backup copies were name made or were destroyed.

In 2010 Steve Tully once again refused to provide scrutineers copies of the below the line preference data files, this denying scrutineers the right to properly scrutinise the election. . This data which should have been published on on progressively as the count preceded has been now been made available but not yet published by the VEC.

We believe that this information should be readily available and that the election process must be open and transparent.   Steve Tully claims that he is not required to publish this data.  There are a lot of things he is not required to do but he does have an obligation and a duty to ensure that our public elections are open and transparent.  In not publishing this information live, as was the case with the election night polling place results Steve Tully has and continues to bring the conduct of the State Election into disrepute.  There is nothing in law that prevents this information being made public. It is a public document that the public have a right of access to. Copies of the preference data files was made available during the counting of the 2008 City of Melbourne municipal election. Why not the State election?

If Steve Tully cannot self regulate in the interest of maintaining an honest and transparent election he should resign and  the Victorian Parliament must legislate to ensure that this information is readily available progressively during the count