Tuesday, July 19, 2011

Murdoch Press: Speculation of new leadership and new election

The Murdoch Press is actively campaigning against the Carbon Tax as a means of removing the ALP from office.

In an article published today in the Herald Sun and across the nation Murdoch is actively trying to undermine the government by suggesting that there could be a change in ALP leadership before the year is out. The Herald Sun has suggested that war horse Simon Crean, a minister in the Hawke-Keating Government, could take over from Gillard. This scenario is far from reality. Gillard would have to resign of her own accord before the ALP would seek a change in leadership at this time.

Gillard is the corner stone of the ALP minority government. Remove Gillard and the house collapses with key independents walking away from the agreement of support.

Should this happen the Liberal Party would seek a motion of no-confidence in the Government. If this was allowed to be successed then Abbott would assume control of the Parliament and immediately take action to force a double dissolution and fresh Parliamentary elections.

A double dissolution would not only see the Liberal party elected to office with a vast majority in the parliament, it would also oust the Greens from holding the balance of power in the Senate.

It is for this reason only that the ALP will not faultier in its resolve to keep Gillard in the top job. A forced early election would decimate the Labor Party and hand absolute power to an Abbott lead Liberal Government.

With growing speculation that the worlds economy is about to be hit by a second wave of economic turmoil the last thing Australia can afford is an Abbott Government. Should Abbott win an early election the economic situation will only get worst.

So concerned about our ecomomic future Victorians are no longer spending money which in itself is having a double impact on economic activity.

The message in the electorate is to brace yourself for harder times. work Choices will be back along with a cut un services and welfare support. Superannuation investments are also expected to take a dive along woth a collapse in housing prices with even more losses predicted in the near future.

We either ride out the storm or drown along with Murdoch.  The deadline for Murdochs plan to be put in action is before October and the agreemnt of Teslstra shareholders to support the Government's NBN.buyout

Monday, July 18, 2011

Nielson Poll: Gillard/Labour at all time low

Sky News, A subsidiary service of Murdoch's News Limited, has pushed the results of a Nielson Poll which shows the Labor Government with a primary vote of just 26% support.  Missing from the Sky publication is the number polled and the relevant details that back up the poll.  There is no doubt that the Gillard Government is languishing in the polls as Labor is under sustained attack by the Murdoch press. A campaign of misinformation and lies from the media itself.  The Government’s Carbon Tax is not the solution to global warming BUT it is heading in the right direction. It will shift the economic balance using market forces towards developing a more sustainable and technological  energy sector. Which in the long term will provide significant benefits to Australia and the environment.  We all suffer by pollution and anything that can shift the balance away from the polluters towards renewal of better technology will in the long term produced more benefits.  It is an investment into our future.

The Government cannot afford to lose this debate. It is the right course of action. Gillard must continue to stay the course and not pander to the media campaign to destabilise Australia's government.

Sunday, July 17, 2011

Danby to fight against Greens in Inner City Melbourne at next Federal Election

Buoyed on by internal ALP analysis that indicates the greens are incapable of directing preferences away from the ALP to the Liberal Party, Michael Danby has decided to challenge the Greens in Melbourne Ports at the next Federal Election.

The Internal Party review undertaken by Alan Grffin has shown that the Greens ability to influence the allocation of Green preferences is less then 0.11% and that as a minor party they will not determine the result of the outcome of the election.

Danby, who is on a 5% margin, believes that support for the Greens will cost him votes in his inner city seat, and that more conservative voters, in particularly the Jewish community, will not vote for any party that is seen to be close to the Greens.

Being squeezed by both ends Danby has resolved that he will not seek a deal with the Greens in a preference swap. Danby has decided that Green voters will back him when it comes to second preferences allocations.

This bold and courageous move may see an end to the Greens chances of winning inner city seats in Victoria.

Danby's actions received the backing of the main faction players with the ALP at a meeting held today, setting the scene for the next Federal election in inner Melbourne. What impact this will have on the seat of Melbourne is unknown at this stage.

Analysis of the 2010 State election. where the Liberal Party decided not to direct preferences to the Greens ahead of the ALP ,was a decisive factor in the outcome of the State election. A decision that boosted ten support for the Liberal Party in ten last weeks of the campaign.

Danby is of the view that the Liberal Party will once again not direct preferences and that in any event in Greens will not run second in marginal seats within 5% as such neither the ALP or the Liberal Party preferences will be distributed.

Wednesday, July 13, 2011

Poll: Voting System

Essential Research

Comment: 48% to 44% of voters favour a preferential voting system over a first past thial te post ballot.   Those favoriong an Optional Preferential ballot do not realise or undertand the impact of optional preferential voting on the counting of the results of the election.  In 2010 the Victorian Electoral Commission advocated that voters only number one to five below-the-line.  The commission should be advocting that voters allocate a preference for all candidates in order of the voters' preferred choice.  In advoctaing the minimum the Commision devalued the value of the vote and became an active particpant in the electiion outcome as oposed to being independent and unaligned.

Q. Which of the following voting systems would you prefer when voting for the Federal House of Representatives.
  • A preferential voting system where voters rank all candidates in order of preference.
  • An optional preferential system where voters can rank one, some, or all candidates in order of preference.
  • A “first past the post” system, where voters only vote for one candidate and the candidate with the most votes wins.
Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Preferential 22% 31% 18% 30%
Optional preferential 26% 26% 24% 33%
First past the post 44% 40% 53% 31%
Don’t know 7% 4% 4% 6%
Of the three voting options given, 44% favoured “first past the post”, 26% optional preferential and 22% the current preferential system.
Optional preferential was most preferred by those aged under 35 (35%) while older groups strongly favoured first past the post (50% of aged 35-54 and 54% of aged 55+).

Poll: Voluntary Voting

Essential Research

Q. If voting at elections was voluntary (i.e. not compulsory) – how likely would you be to vote in the next Federal election?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total definitely/probably vote 82% 85% 89% 78%
Total definitely/probably not vote 14% 12% 9% 19%
Would definitely vote 59% 62% 65% 61%
Would probably vote 23% 23% 24% 17%
Probably wouldn’t vote 10% 8% 7% 18%
Definitely wouldn’t vote 4% 4% 2% 1%
Don’t know 4% 3% 1% 3%

82% said they would definitely or probably vote if voting was voluntary. 14% said they definitely or probably would not vote.
Coalition and Labor voters were more likely to vote and Greens voters somewhat less likely.
By age, 73% of those aged under 35 said they would vote compared to 82% of those aged 35-54 and 91% of those aged 55+.
The estimated vote excluding those who would probably or definitely not vote produces a first preference vote of 52% Liberal/National, 30% Labor, 11% Greens and 7% other. The two-party preferred estimate is 58% Liberal/National and 42% Labor (compared to the current estimate of 57%/43%) – suggesting that voluntary voting would only very slightly advantage the Coalition.

Tuesday, July 5, 2011

Essential Research: Latest Polling

Essential Research has published its latest polling.  It has the ALP trailing the Coalition primary vote 32% to 46% (44% to 56% TPP) respectively.

Equally alarming is the economic trend which shows Australia's strong economic performance backed up by the Mining sector and good economic management by the Federal Government is not being reflected in consumer confidence.  Much of this has to do with the Baby boomers entering retirement as the burden on taxation beocmes greater along with the ned to make ends meet on what is a igherning peronsal housld budget.  This is not helped by profit takers who are benefiting from the high dollar and massive increases in supermarket pricing over the last two months.  Our dollar is performing well yet the price of energy and petrol is increasing.

On the political front the change in the Senate with the Greens claining balance of power (Fact is the Greens olnly hold the blanace of power if the Coalition opposes Government inititives - which has more to do with political opportunism then what is the best policy for the Nation.)