Showing posts with label Surplus transfer value. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Surplus transfer value. Show all posts

Sunday, December 5, 2010

Flaw in counting system to deny Liberal Party representation in Northern Victoria

A flaw in the way the Victorian Electoral Commission calculates the Surplus transfer value may deny the Liberal/National Parties a third seat in Northern Victoria.  ALP ticket vote increases disportionaly in value at the expense of the Greens  delivering a bonus 989 votes to Country Alliance allowing them to win the last seat not on merit but on the back of a flaw in the system.

UPDATE:  Latest counting (@ 90.76% counted) has the Liberals move ahead of Country Alliance but the flaw in the counting system still remains although the extent of the distortion doees not effect teh outcime of the overall result.  Liberal party win last seat.

Based on the data extracted from ABC Antony Greens Election calculator at 68.68% of the vote counted (quota 47735)

The ALP ticket vote increases in value as a result of the formula used to calculate the Surplus Transfer value.  (Surplus divided by the number of ballot papers)

In calculating the surplus transfer value the VEC divided the surplus equally by the number of ballot papers as opposed to taking into consideration the weighted value of each vote.

At the point where the ALP number 2 Candidate is elected (Count 9)

Vote source Papers Value Sum Percentage
 ALP Ticket 77912 0.387322 30177 57.40%
Greens Primary 22393 1.000000 22393 42.60%
Total Votes 100305
52570 100.00%
Less Quota

-47735
Surplus

4835

Weighted Value of Surplus

Value of ALP Ticket 77912 0.035623 2775 57.40%
Value of Greens Vote 22393 0.091973 2060 42.60%
Total Surplus 100305
4835 100.00%

Value allocated by VEC

Value of ALP Ticket 77912 0.048203 3756 77.68%
Value of Greens vote 22393 0.048203 1079 22.32%
Total Surplus 100305
4835 100.00%

The Greens vote has been devalued 989 votes. The ALP ticket vote increased in value by the same amount.  This is greater then the winning margin allocated to Country Alliance

Solution: Introduce a fully proportional counting system such as the Wright system or the Meek method.
One vote one value - Single transaction per candidate (Surplus or exclusion).Democratic Pure simple the Wright method