Green bias in Flawed ABC Calculator Against Melbourne and Sitting Independents

There is a noticeable flaw in ABC Anthony Green's Election Calculator in that he has awarded the seat of Melbourne to the Greens based on the Essential Research quarterly state poll

The Greens only won Melbourne in 2010 because the Liberal Party at the time preferenced them ahead of the ALP. A mistake they are unlikely repeat in September.

In 2010 the State Liberal party fearing a backlash from its supporters placed the Greens below the ALP this allowed then State ALP member Browyn Pike to hold on to the State Seat of Melbourne.

Without LNP preferences the the only way the Greens can hold on to the Seat of Melbourne is if ALP endorsed candidate Cath Bowtell polls third below the Greens and the Liberal Party after distribution of minor party candidates preferences. in which case Cath Bowtell's preferences will elect Adam Brandt.


LNP supporters will be conscious of this potential outcome and we will most likely see a repeat of the State By-election where LNP voters will fall behind Cath Bowtell in order to prevent the Greens from being re-elected.

All recent  polls including the Essential Research Poll are showing a Statewide drop in Greens support which lends even more to the flaws in Antony Greens Calculations. You can not apply a statewide swing overall to a specific seat such as Melbourne where the 2PP contest is not between the LNP and the ALP.

UPDATE:  It is clear that Antony Green has hard coded in the defeat of  Independent seats as shown by this scenario on his calculator

Greens Brian Walters Policy Free Zone for Greater Melbourne

The Age editorial endorsing the return of a Brumby Government highlighted the need for State planners and political parties to adopt policy that can contain the urban sprawl and growth of Melbourne. Both Labor and the Liberal Party have failed to put in place policies and planning for melbourne's future growth.  This is the most pressing issue confronting Melbourne today.

In order to facilitate good governance and planning for Melbourne's future it needs a central enlarged Greater Melbourne City administration.

The Greens candidate for Melbourne, Brian Walters, when ask to outline his policy and vision for a Great City of Melbourne stated he had no policy, no vision and proposal to address this issue. A policy free zoned on what is one of the most important environmental planning decision facing his electorate and the state.

Brian Walters does not deserve your support.  His only issue of concern has been his desire for recognition of Gay Marriage, An issue that falls within the authority of the Federal Marriage act is is not an issue of great concern to the Melbourne City electorate. Much more pressing issues such as the need for a Greater Melbourne City Council have been ignored

It is for this reason and the need to ensure we have a strong stable government that the Green's should not be elected to represent inner city seats.

Pike and Wynne secure "the donkey' advantage

Pike, Wynne score top spot on ballot paper

Source ABC
 
There has been a surprise boost for the re-election campaigns of two state Labor ministers.

Both Melbourne MP Bronwyn Pike and the member for Richmond, Richard Wynne, have drawn the top spot on their ballot paper.

Studies suggest being first on a ballot can increase a candidate's vote by as much as one per cent.

Ms Pike, the Education Minister, holds Melbourne by a slim margin of just two per cent. She is under threat from Greens candidate Brian Walters, a well-known barrister. Mr Wynne, the Housing Minister holds Richmond by just 3.6 per cent. He is standing against a strong group of candidates including local businessman Tom McFeely for the Liberals, local councillor Stephen Jolly and Kathleen Maltzahn for the Greens.