TAS Senate Group Preference flow

It is said that Everybody in Tasmania has a member of the family in public office. It is the most over governed state in Australia. The home of Bob Brown fomer leader and patron of the Greens and maverick Member for Denison, Andrew Wilkie.

The Greens are expected to lose support this round but will still remain above quota

The question is will the ALP hold on to three seats or will they lose a seat to an independent group? 

The Liberal Party is expected to retain two senate seats. Prefernce flows are a mixed batch with the ALP having the edge over the Liberal Party.  We expect no change in overall results between 2010 and 2013 

However that is all ways depends on the extent of the swing against the ALP who also holds control of the State Parliament. Family First has a chance.  Had Wikileaks ran in this seat then this State would have been much more interesting to watch.


ABC State Seat Historical voting statistics used as a base in analysis and ABC Senate Calculator

Tasmania

	Candidate	Party
1	Carol BROWN	Australian Labor Party
2	Richard COLBECK	Liberal Party
3	Peter WHISH-WILSON	Australian Greens
4	Catryna BILYK	Australian Labor Party
5	David BUSHBY	Liberal Party
6	Lin THORP	Australian Labor Party

ID	Group Name	Group Preference Flow
A	Country Alliance	ASXP	LP	AFLP	ALP	ODR	FFP	GRN
B	Liberal Democrats	ODR	FFP	ASXP	AFLP	LP	ALP	GRN
C	Australian Labor Party	ALP	GRN	ASXP	FFP	ODR	AFLP	LP
D	Rise Up Australia Party	FFP	AFLP	ODR	LP	ALP	ASXP	GRN
E	Liberal	LP	FFP	AFLP	ODR	ALP	ASXP	GRN
F	Palmer United Party	FFP	GRN	ASXP	AFLP	ODR	LP	ALP
G	Australian Christians	FFP	AFLP	LP	ODR	ALP	GRN	ASXP
H	DLP Democratic Labour	AFLP	ODR	FFP	LP	ALP	ASXP	GRN
I	Pirate Party	GRN	ASXP	AFLP	ALP	LP	ODR	FFP
J	Australian Greens	GRN	ASXP	ALP	FFP	LP	AFLP	ODR
K	Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party	ASXP	AFLP	ALP	GRN	FFP	ODR	LP
L	Shooters and Fishers	AFLP	ASXP	FFP	ODR	ALP	LP	GRN
M	Australian Independents	FFP	ASXP	AFLP	ODR	GRN	LP	ALP
N	Sex Party	ASXP	AFLP	ALP	GRN	LP	ODR	FFP
O	Senator Online (Internet Voting Bills/Issues)	AFLP	FFP	ASXP	ODR	GRN	ALP	LP
P	Katter's Australian Party	FFP	AFLP	ODR	LP	GRN	ALP	ASXP
Q	No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics	FFP	AFLP	ASXP	ODR	ALP	LP	GRN
R	Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party	AFLP	FFP	ASXP	ODR	ALP	LP	GRN
S	Stable Population Party	ASXP	AFLP	FFP	GRN	ALP	LP	ODR
S	Stable Population Party	ASXP	AFLP	FFP	ALP	LP	GRN	ODR
S	Stable Population Party	ASXP	AFLP	FFP	LP	GRN	ALP	ODR
U	The Australian Republicans	ODR	ASXP	FFP	AFLP	LP	ALP	GRN
V	Smokers Rights	FFP	AFLP	ODR	LP	ALP	GRN	ASXP
W	Family First	ODR	FFP	ASXP	AFLP	LP	ALP	GRN

Liberals bow down to members pressure and save Victoria from Gang Greens

Source: The Age

THE Liberal Party will direct preferences to Labor ahead of the Greens at the state election, virtually destroying the minor party's chances of winning seats in the lower house and seizing the balance of power in Victoria.

Liberal heavyweights including Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu, party president David Kemp and state director Tony Nutt last night resolved to ''put the Greens last'' in all 88 lower house seats".

The shock move means Labor is almost guaranteed to retain a suite of inner-Melbourne seats it feared would fall to the Greens, and reduces to almost zero the prospect of the election producing a hung parliament.

The decision to put the Greens last will boost Ted Baillieu standing in the electorate.

Bronwyn Pike is now the only seat under question but the vote is now back in her court with the game still in play


 Table below Source Poll Bludger

				GRN 2PP
	ALP	GRN	LIB	LIB PREF	NO PREF
2006 STATE
Melbourne	45%	27%	22%	48%	40%
Richmond	46%	25%	20%	46%	39%
Brunswick	48%	30%	17%	45%	40%
Northcote	53%	27%	15%	42%	37%
2010 FEDERAL
Melbourne	36%	37%	22%	57%	49%
Richmond	39%	37%	20%	55%	48%
Brunswick	46%	31%	19%	48%	41%
Northcote	46%	33%	17%	49%	42%

Upper-house Tickets: Who directs preferences to who

Source: PollBludger

EASTERN METROPOLITAN

Democratic Labor Party: Family First; Liberal; Labor; Greens.
Labor: Greens; DLP; Family First; Liberal.
Family First:: DLP; Liberal; Labor; Greens.
Greens: Labor; DLP; Family First; Liberal.
Liberal: Family First; DLP; Labor; Greens.

EASTERN VICTORIA

Family First: DLP; Country Alliance; Liberal; Labor; Greens.
DLP: Country Alliance; Family First; Coalition; Labor; Greens.
Coalition: Country Alliance; Family First; DLP; Labor; Greens.
Labor: Country Alliance; Greens; DLP; Family First; Coalition.
Country Alliance: DLP; Family First; Coalition; Labor; Greens.
Greens: Labor; DLP; Family First; Coalition; Country Alliance.

NORTHERN METROPOLITAN


Christian Party: DLP; Family First; Country Alliance; Liberal; Stephen Mayne; Labor; Greens; Sex Party.
Family First: Stephen Mayne; Christian Party; Country Alliance; DLP; Liberal; Labor; Sex Party; Greens.
Country Alliance: Sex Party; DLP; Labor; Liberal; Family First; Christian Party; Stephen Mayne; Greens.
Greens: Stephen Mayne; Sex Party; Labor; DLP; Family First; Christian Party; Liberal; Country Alliance.
Sex Party: Stephen Mayne; Greens; Country Alliance; Labor; Liberal; Family First; Christian Party.
DLP: Christian Party; Stephen Mayne; Country Alliance; Family First; Liberal; Labor; Sex Party; Greens.
Labor: Sex Party; Greens; Country Alliance; DLP; Stephen Mayne; Family First; Liberal; Christian Party.
Liberal: Sex Party; Family First; DLP; Country Alliance; Christian Party; Stephen Mayne; Labor; Greens.

NORTHERN VICTORIA

Country Alliance: DLP; Family First; Coalition; CDP; Labor; Sex Party; Greens.
Christian Democratic Party: DLP; Family First; Coalition; Country Alliance; Labor; Greens; Sex Party.
Family First: CDP; DLP; Country Alliance; Coalition; Labor; Sex Party; Greens.
Greens: Labor; Sex Party; DLP; Family First; CDP; Coalition; Country Alliance;
Coalition: Country Alliance; Family First; DLP; CDP; Sex Party; Labor; Greens.
Labor: Country Alliance; Greens; Sex Party; DLP; Family First; Coalition; CDP.
Sex Party: Country Alliance; Greens; Labor; Coalition; CDP; Family First; DLP.
DLP: Country Alliance; CDP; Family First; Coalition; Labor; Sex Party; Greens.

SOUTH-EASTERN METROPOLITAN

Liberal: DLP; Family First; Christian Party; Labor; Greens.
Labor: Greens; DLP; Family First; Liberal; Christian Party.
DLP: Christian Party; Family First; Liberal; Labor; Greens.
Christian Party: DLP; Family First; Liberal; Labor; Greens.
Family First: Christian Party; DLP; Liberal; Labor; Greens.
Greens: Labor; DLP; Family First; Christian Party; Liberal.

SOUTHERN METROPOLITAN

Sex Party: Greens; Liberal; Labor; Family First; DLP; Christan Party.
DLP: Christian Party; Family First; Liberal; Labor; Sex Party; Greens.
Family First: Christian Party; DLP; Liberal; Labor; Sex Party; Greens.
Christian Party: DLP; Family First; Liberal; Labor; Greens; Sex Party.
Greens: Sex Party; Labor; DLP; Family First; Christian Party; Liberal.
Liberal: Family First; DLP; Christian Party; Sex Party; Labor; Greens.
Labor: Greens; Sex Party; DLP; Family First; Liberal; Christian Party.

WESTERN METROPOLITAN

Sex Party: Greens; Labor; Liberal; Family First; DLP.
Labor: Greens; Sex Party; DLP; Family First; Liberal.
Family First: DLP; Liberal; Labor; Sex Party; Greens.
DLP: Family First; Liberal; Labor; Sex Party; Greens.
Greens: Sex Party; Labor; DLP; Family First; Liberal.
Liberal: Family First; DLP; Sex Party; Labor; Greens.

WESTERN VICTORIA

Coalition: DLP; Family First; Country Alliance; Labor; Greens.
Family First: Country Alliance; DLP; Coalition; Labor; Greens.
Labor: Greens; Country Alliance; DLP; Family First; Coalition.
Greens: Labor; DLP; Family First; Coalition; Country Alliance.
Country Alliance: DLP; Family First; Coalition; Labor; Greens.

Southern Metro: Liberal Party Preferences Deceitful Politics

The Liberal Party has placed the Greens last on their registered Group Voting ticket for Southern Metropolitan.

UPDATE: The Liberal Party have bowed to pressure from its membership and have decided not to risk the fall out and have placed the Greens last behind labor:  See The Age Blow to Greens  - a noted sigh of relief from Labor. Now the campaign really begins.

This goes in complete the opposite direction in inner Melbourne where the Liberal Party is expected to preference the Greens ahead of Labor, which could quite possible elect the Greens to three inner city lower house seats (Melbourne, Richmond and Brunswick).


The Liberal may yet live to rue the day as the Greens could hold the balance of power in the Lower house in what is currently looking like shaping up to be another hung parliament and a minority government.

The Liberals preferencing the Greens in inner Melbourne may work against them. Particularly when they are now seen as having placed the Greens behind Labor on the upper house. Punters will not see this as being even handed or principled - it will be seen for what it is - Political gamesmanship;.


Northcote

Fiona Richardson is also under attack by the Green/Liberal alliance but she is campaign strongly on Labor's values and record of delivering economic stability and jobs.

Melbourne

The member for Melbourne, Bronwyn Pike is set to lose her seat, her campaign is lack luster and boring having failed to inspire Melbourne's inner city voters. (Whoever came up with the slogan Pike likes Melbourne should be sacked)


The Greens on the other hand have employed deceitful but effective slogans such as "make your vote count" implying that only a vote  for the greens will count.  This is not true of course as every vote will count.  Pike is on a narrow margin just above 2% all expectations is she is gone.

Richmond (Line Ball)

Dick Wynne has a greater margin of just over 3% he unlike Pike is a seasoned politician and his campaign has been stronger then Pike's in Melbourne.  The odds are against him and its too close to call at this stage of the campaign.

SEX Party swings to Liberals: Labor tipped to lose a seat

Preference deals and the SEX PARTY, DLP, FAMILY FIRST, CHRISTIANS, CIVIL SOCIETY in Southern Metropolitan will deliver a third upper-house seat to the Liberal Party placing Labor in the doubtful column for winning to seats.

Analysis of Southern Metropolitan Group voting tickets shows

[A] SEX PARTY: >  Vern Huges > Liberal
[B] DLP:> Christian (Fred Nile) > Vern Huges > Family First > Independent >Liberal  
[C] FAMILY FIRST:> Christian (Fred Nile) > Vern Huges > DLP >Independent >Liberal
[D] CHRISTIAN PARTY:>  DLP > Family First > Liberal
[E] CIVIL SOCIETY (Mayne):> Independent > Sex > DLP > Family First > Greens > Christian (Fred Nile) > Liberal
[F] GREENS:> Civil Society (Mayne) > Sex > Labor
[G] LIBERAL: > Family First > DLP > Christian (Fred Nile) > Vern Huges > Sex > Independent > Labor
[H] LABOR:> Greens > Sex > Vern Huges > independent > DLP

Prediction Liberal: 3, Labor: 1, Greens: 1

Sigh of Relief: Greens back down in the last minute on split ticket proposal

The Greens, power brokers, under pressure have backed down on issuing a split ticket in Victoria's Southern Metropolitan upper-house region.

Greens numbers man, Stephen Luntz, was in the VEC Melbourne office 10 minutes to 12 registering the Greens group voting tickets.  Registration of Group voting tickets closed at 12 noon today.

There was considerable concern that the Greens would trade off upper-house seats for Liberal preference in inner city lower-house seats.

The Greens were under pressure to not issue a split ticket as it would have attracted wide publicity and cost the Greens support across the State.

ABC Electoral Analyst, Antony Green, in commenting on the proposal of a split ticket said that "If the Greens issued a Split Ticket it would be the highlight of the campaign".

Public discussion and community concern played a major role in the decision of the Greens to not issue a split ticket. Had the Greens issued a split ticket the Liberal Party would have won three seats in Southern Metropolitan.

Luntz in exiting the VEC was reported as saying that they had preferenced Independents, the Sex Party then the ALP.

Update: Sex Party, DLP and others have preferenced the Liberal Party before the ALP and as such will deliver the Liberal Party a thrid seat in Southern Metropolitian. (ALP: 1, LNP: 3, GRN: 1)

Socialist extremists dressed in Green costumes.

Liberal leader Kevin Andrews, exposes the real truth about the Victorian Greens and their hidden socialist agenda that lurks behind the slick advertising and sloganeering  that is sold to the general public.

The real faces behind the Green advertising fund raisers - Public funding has made them rich

Source VEXNEWS

Despite the emphasis on the environment, “the Greens are not a single issue party.”[1] Their objective is clear: “to transform politics and bring about Green government.”[2] The Australian Greens are part of a worldwide movement that is actively engaged in the political process.[3] As their writings state, this objective involves a radical transformation of the culture that underpins western civilization.

As a political party, [the Greens] should be treated like any other political party and subjected to the same scrutiny.

In order to fully comprehend the Greens’ political ideology, it is necessary to understand the historical roots and foundations of both our own western, liberal democratic culture – and that of the Greens. It this address, I propose to explain the Greens agenda, as set out in their own documents and writings.[4] The paper has three parts: First, a brief examination of the roots of western culture and the origins of the Greens; secondly, an analysis of the Greens ideology; and thirdly, a discussion of the Greens economic, social and other policies.

Kevin Andrew's concerns are also express by Monash University politics lecturer, Narelle Miragliotta, who says that "while the Greens are seen as inspired by a desire to preserve wilderness areas, this is strictly only true of the Tasmania and Queensland branches."

''The thing about Tasmania and Queensland, they did mobilise around charismatic individuals [Bob Brown and Drew Hutton],'' she says. The Greens in Victoria and New South Wales came from a broader social justice movement, creating a sort of pan-left party.

Sophie Mirabella, the federal member for Indi (Victoria), has distributed a leaflet in her seat in which she details "just some of the loopy Green policies". She expresses a view widely held within the Liberal Party membership.

"It would be negligent of me to stand by and watch my constituents get screwed over by an extreme party hiding behind warm fuzzy green trees," she told the Herald Sun.

 "Any state preference deal is a matter for (state Liberal leader Ted Baillieu and state director Tony Nutt), but my view and the view of many in the Coalition is that the Greens are extreme and their policies are bad.