Monday, December 6, 2010

Antony Green's Upper-house Analysis Under Review

In reply and reference to summary comments made by ABC Analysts, Antony Green and published on his blog

The Liberal/National Party Coalition will win 21, ALP 16, Greens 3 =  Total 40.

Western Metro

UPDATE: In a close forth competition at teh End the number of ballot that exhuasted favoured the Greens who managed to be elected ahread of Labor's Bob Smith just below quota. The extnt of exhaust was not expected.  2010 as teh forst year Victoria used an opertional prefential ballot.  Many people are critical of the instructions on the ballot paper which meny say encouraged voters not to fill in all preferences.  This has a detrimentral impact on Labor which lost the third seat to the Greens

There are some 32,000 votes still to be counted to tally the lower-house
Ordinary Votes: There are 212 more votes in the Region then record in the lower-house
Absentee Votes:  14988
Pre-Poll; 16808
Postal: 109
We can assume that most of the Below-The-Line votes will stay within the group of their first preference - very few votes break group.

The Greens need 100%+ of Sex Party votes to secure quota even then they are still 3% short of a quota (approximately 2150 votes). I do not see Family First or DLP voters backing the Greens any drift in preference allocations is likely to be off set by a drift in Sex Party votes

We expect the number of outstanding votes to favour Labor and will push the Liberals back to below quota and they will be in contest with the Greens for the last seat.

9% of Sex Party have voted Below-the-line  Many of them will be donkey votes which favours the ALP or they will not preference the Greens and will flow to the Liberal party or the ALP this will reduce even more the Greens chances of crossing the line.

In 2006 The VEC undertook a recount of votes, The total number of votes recorded in Count B was 500 votes less then in Count A. No satisfactory explanation had been =provided for this discrepancy in the vote tally. There as also a discrepancy of over 250 votes when compared with the lower house vote tally. The Greens won the second count by 127 votes.  The VEC refused to provide copies of the voting centre returns for comparison.  This information was requested under FOI. Preference Data-files pertaining to Count B wires made available three months after the election in compliance with our FOI application. Additional Information was later requested by the Parliamentary Electoral Matters Committee but the VEC claimed that the data for Count A had been deleted and information overwritten. no backup copies were made. This prevented scrutineers from undertaking a detailed independent analysis of the 2006 elections results.

Northern Metro

Antony Green in making his analysis may have allowed his association with Stephen Mayne to cloud his professional assessment.  It could also be due to his lack of familiarity with the electorate or the fact that he does not know what information is outstanding.

16:10 Update has just put Mayne behind the Greens. Antony Green's Calculator has excluded Adrian Whiteheads vote which currently listed at 276 (It will increase to over 350) Whitehead's vote flows to the Greens then exhaust. This puts the Greens ahead of Mayne and Mayne is excluded from the count. Mayne is on 5058 and the Greens on 5558 - Assuming all group votes follow the Group Ticket.

Currently the Liberals are winning the last seat with a margin of 53413 to 49386 with a total vote of 325025 (71.87% of the total enrolment as at the close of rolls rechecked)

Posted by: democracyATwork | December 06, 2010 at 06:13 PM

The worst counted Region by the VEC,  The lower-house is also way behind all other reason with many Pre Poll, Absentee and Postal votes yet to be recorded.

(The number outstanding is known as information has not been made available to scrutineers as to what has been issued and what has been returned. This was the seat where the VEC in 2006 made the triumphant stuff up of provisionally declaring elected the DLP candidate without checking that the number of votes recorded in the computer matched the number of votes expected. - Lack of due diligence. They won't want to make the same mistake this year. We suspect that theyb have had trouble again this year reconciling the vote  whihc expkains why they have refiused to provided scutineers with a running tally of the number of votes issued and returned.  Information that they should have known on teh Sunday following the election - With the exception of a few postal votes still in the mail)

There are some 70,000 votes still to be counted

Much depends on whether Steven Mayne can outpoll the Greens surplus. Last count before the VEC pulled the curtain closed at 80% counted Mayne had fallen behind the Greens. With a number of large inner city booths to be counted we expect this will increase the Greens vote and place Mayne out of contention.

Antony Green's calculator does not take into account some 320 preferences for Adrian Whitehead, all of which preference the Greens then exhaust as per his ticket. This gives the Greens an edge and we expect the Greens will further outpoll Mayne in the final count.

With Mayne out of contention the contest will be between Labor's Nathan Murphy and the Liberals second candidate, Craig Ondarchie. The Liberals have the advantage and we doubt that Murphy can catch up.  Murphy would need over 70%  or more of the outstanding votes to favour Labor before the Liberals some of them will be absorbed in the increased quotas of those candidates already elected in the primary count.  Prediction Liberals will win the last spot by a clear margin giving the Liberal Party absolute control of both houses.Outside chance that Labor can regain ground.

VEC process and published data 

Much of the 2010 as with the 2006 election count has been marred by the Victorian Electoral Commission not proving information as to the number of ballot papers issued and received back.  This makes it that much more harder to scrutinise and analysis the expected results as the goal posts and location of the finish line is unknown.

Further the VEC is not proving copies of the BTL preference data files as the count progresses this prevents the proper scrutiny of the electronic count.  This Information was made available during the City of Melbourne Council count and by the AEC within a day of completing the data entry process.

In 2006 we had to FOI the VEC to gain access to this information which was provided only in part 3 months after the election.

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