Morgan Phone Poll: LNP 51% to Labor 49%

Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu’s Liberal-National Coalition is set win a close Victorian State Election with the L-NP (51%, up 3.5% in a week) leading the ALP (49%, down 3.5%) on a Two-Party preferred basis according to a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last four nights in Victoria, November 22-25, 2010.

Source Morgan Poll

Despite the L-NP now leading the Two-Party preferred vote, the clear majority of electors (61%) still think the ALP ‘will win’ tomorrow’s election compared to just 21% who expect the L-NP to win the election.

Primary support has risen for the L-NP 44.5% (up 3% from November 16-18, 2010, and up 4.9% from the 2006 Victorian State Election), ALP support has collapsed to 35.5% (down 3.5% from November 16-18, 2010 and down 7.6% from the 2006 Election), the Greens 13% (down 2.5%, but up 3% from the 2006 Election), Family First 1.5% (unchanged, but down 2.8% from the 2006 Election) and Independents/Other 5.5% (up 3%).

Morgan Poll: Combined poll produces funny results

Morgan Poll has published its latest poll which combines information collated disproportionally in a recent inner city poll with a more statewide phone poll. (Statistically you should not mix concentrated polling areas with less concentrated data - like the way they count the Senate it serisouly distorts the data presented. - So why did Morgan publish it?)


It has the Dr Bludger stumped , William (proGreen) Bowe, in his bludger blog states:

Morgan has produced another poll on the Victorian state election, and this one’s a lot more credible than the last – a statewide phone survey conducted from a sample of 943 over the past three nights, with a margin of error of a bit over 3 per cent. Despite nervous talk emanating from the Labor camp, the poll gives them a comfortable two-party lead of 52.5-47.5, from primary votes of 39 per cent for Labor, 41.5 per cent for the Coalition and 15.5 per cent for the Greens. I gather the poll consists of the inner-city results from Tuesday topped up with a further 667 responses from elsewhere, with the former presumably weighted downwards to reflect the fact that they only account for 4.5 per cent of statewide enrolment. However, I’m not entirely sure what to make of Gary Morgan’s accompanying spiel in which he says the headline two-party figure is “slightly ‘misleading’ as it includes a very high ALP Two-party preferred vote (72.5%) cf. L-NP (27.5%) in the marginal Inner Melbourne seats of Richmond, Northcote, Brunswick and Melbourne”. It isn’t clear to me why the predictable weakness of the Liberals in this area would contribute to a “misleading” total any more than would Labor’s corresponding weakness in rural areas and wealthier parts of the city. The poll also has John Brumby leading Ted Baillieu as preferred premier 47.5 per cent to 35.5 per cent, although Baillieu has better personal ratings: Brumby is on 38 per cent approval and 43 per cent disapproval, while Baillieu’s approval and disapproval are both 40 per cent.

Morgan Phone Home - Greens claim victory within their grasp in spite the Liberal Party preferencing the Greens last

Its hard to believe but believe it or not.

Gary Morgan, from Roy Morgan  research, has undertaken a phone poll in the inner City electorates of Richmond, Brunswick, Melbourne and Northcote. According to Morgan the Greens on a 2PP against the ALP could secure over 50% of the vote.  This in spite the decision to the Liberal Party to preference the greens last on their HTV cards.

Morgan's claimed Primary vote is a little beyond belief.  Morgans press release did not mentioned who commissioned the poll.  The special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted last night (Tuesday November 16, 2010) in the 4 inner Melbourne seats (Melbourne, Richmond, Brunswick, Northcote) with a cross section of 276 electors; a low 3% didn’t name a party.: November 17, 2010

Bludger Dr William Bowe says:

• Roy Morgan has exposed itself to ridicule by not only publishing a phone poll of the four Labor-versus-Greens seats from a sample of just 276, but also purporting that meaningful conclusions can be drawn from the seat-by-seat breakdowns (“Greens set to win Inner Melbourne seats of Richmond & Northcote; Vote in Brunswick & Melbourne ‘too close to call’”). The best that can be done with the poll is to combine the results and compare them with the 2006 election, which shows the Greens up 17 points on the primary vote, Labor down 16 points and the Liberals up three, with a two-party swing to the Greens of 8 per cent – and even then a margin of error approaching 6 per cent must be taken into account. For what very little it’s worth, a uniform 8 per cent swing would deliver the Greens Melbourne, Richmond and Brunswick, but not quite Northcote. We aren’t told how preferences were allocated, but clearly it wasn’t on the basis of the last election – the Greens’ preference share has gone from 74 per cent to 41 per cent.

Greens set to win Inner Melbourne seats of Richmond & Northcote
Vote in Brunswick & Melbourne ‘too close to call’

The Greens are in a winning position in the Victorian State seats of Richmond and  Northcote; while its ‘too close to call’ in Brunswick and Melbourne, a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted last night (Tuesday, November 17, 2010) shows.

Two Party preferred vote in the four seats surveyed was:

Richmond — Greens  61% vs ALP 39%

Northcote — Greens 54% vs ALP 46%

Brunswick — Greens 51.5% vs ALP 48.5%

Melbourne — ALP 51% vs Greens 49%.

The Greens obtained a significant vote before preferences — in Richmond (50%), Northcote (50.5%) and Brunswick (41.5%); while in Melbourne the vote is divided fairly evenly across the three major parties.

Gary Morgan says:

“Despite the Liberal Party decision on the weekend to preference Labor ahead of the Greens across Victoria, the Greens look set to do particularly well in the Inner Melbourne seats they have been targeting since the last Victorian State election — Victoria seems to be heading for a Hung Parliament.”

Full Tables & Details: http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2010/4601