Northern Victoria: Tully's Dodgy Tally

In another example of just how shoddy Tully's Tally is were compare the information published by the VEC for Northern Victoria.

On the Official VEC published website we extract the following information

Recheck votes

Total Enrolment as at close of rolls:	429217
Formal Votes:	389721
Informal Votes:	11177 (2.79% of the total votes)
Total Votes:	400898 (93.40% of the total enrolment as at the close of rolls rechecked)
Quota:	64946

Recheck first preference votes

	Group	Above the line	Below the line	Total votes	% of formal vote	Quota
A	COUNTRY ALLIANCE	24537	2123	26660	6.84%	0.41
B	CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY (FRED NILE GROUP)	2112	438	2550	0.65%	0.04
C	FAMILY FIRST	10767	672	11439	2.94%	0.18
D	AUSTRALIAN GREENS	27891	3319	31210	8.01%	0.48
E	LIBERAL / THE NATIONALS	186566	4335	190901	48.98%	2.94
F	AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY	103479	2311	105790	27.15%	1.63
G	SEX PARTY	14172	710	14882	3.82%	0.23
H	D.L.P. - DEMOCRATIC LABOR PARTY	5880	409	6289	1.61%	0.10

The total number of formal votes recorded in the above table shows

	ATL	BTL	TOTAL
	375404	14317	389721

When you examine the final details published by the VEC you get a different total? 59 votes difference in the total formal votes recorded. 

Total ATL Votes	Total BTL Votes	Formal	Informal	Total Votes
375,457	14,216	389,673	11,220	400,893

Clearly there is something wrong with the VEC procedures as the tally does not tally. The data certainly looks doctored and begs the question how good is the 13 million dollar sofwtare that the VEC invested in. Looks mickey mouse to us. Oh and the BTL data files does not match up either, which might explain why Steve tully did not want to make this data available. It's rule of thumb when it comes to Tully's Tally. Tully's near enough is good enough approcah is not really good enough.

Tully's Tally: The night before the button is pressed

Tally of total votes per region as reported at 4:00PM Monday 13, 2010

Comparison Table		Council	Assembly
Region	Difference	Total	Total
Eastern Metropolitan Region	129	401081	401210
Eastern Victoria Region	143	428752	428895
Northern Metropolitan Region	-3	413270	413267
Northern Victoria Region	-20	400898	400878
South Eastern Metropolitan Region	312	411685	411997
Southern Metropolitan Region	184	391440	391624
Western Metropolitan Region	42	443268	443310
Western Victoria Region	212	438472	438684

Thursday Night : Tully's tally

More votes being counted and added to the Tally in both houses.

Comparison Table		Council	Assembly
Region	Difference	Total	Total
Eastern Metropolitan Region	128	401082	401210
Eastern Victoria Region	143	428752	428895
Northern Metropolitan Region	-15	413282	413267
Northern Victoria Region	35	400843	400878
South Eastern Metropolitan Region	312	411685	411997
Southern Metropolitan Region	242	391382	391624
Western Metropolitan Region	30	443280	443310
Western Victoria Region	202	438482	438684

Victoria 2010:Tally by Region

The following is a tally of the recorded formal, informal and total vote for the lower-house and upper-house by Region as of December 6, 2010

Legislative Assembly Formal Vote Summary

Region	Absent	Early	Voted	Ordinary	Postal	Provisional
Eastern Metropolitan Region	20217	56523	4	269647	32184	1605
Eastern Victoria Region	19350	83002	13	273088	28928	3255
Northern Metropolitan Region	31923	40954	4	273527	27032	2305
Northern Victoria Region	19622	76389	5	261714	20308	2684
South Eastern Metropolitan Region	25188	55061		266491	35064	2324
Southern Metropolitan Region	28094	55989		251429	35550	1823
Western Metropolitan Region	22745	74428	3	287515	25276	3509
Western Victoria Region	23600	75830	1	287264	27982	2106

Legislative Assembly Informal Vote

Region	Absent	Early	Voted	Ordinary	Postal	Provisional
Eastern Metropolitan Region	1200	2102		11909	1430	96
Eastern Victoria Region	1245	3154		13489	1225	223
Northern Metropolitan Region	1630	1699		16583	1240	162
Northern Victoria Region	1104	3258		14482	833	173
South Eastern Metropolitan Region	1915	2731		17295	1777	174
Southern Metropolitan Region	1280	1786		9362	1322	95
Western Metropolitan Region	1616	4300		20220	1363	273
Western Victoria Region	1380	3068		14755	1118	144

Legislative Assembly Total Vote

Region	Absent	Early	Voted	Ordinary	Postal	Provisional
Eastern Metropolitan Region	21417	58625	4	281556	33614	1701
Eastern Victoria Region	20595	86156	13	286577	30153	3478
Northern Metropolitan Region	33553	42653	4	290110	28272	2467
Northern Victoria Region	20726	79647	5	276196	21141	2857
South Eastern Metropolitan Region	27103	57792		283786	36841	2498
Southern Metropolitan Region	29374	57775		260791	36872	1918
Western Metropolitan Region	24361	78728	3	307735	26639	3782
Western Victoria Region	24980	78898	1	302019	29100	2250

Legislative Council Formal Vote Summary

Region	Absent	Early	Voted	Ordinary	Postal	Provisional
Eastern Metropolitan Region	16404	52667		272713	31571	425
Eastern Victoria Region	17253	82755	4	277451	28368	1806
Northern Metropolitan Region	3926	6215		274294	23968
Northern Victoria Region	16680	77200	5	267517	20167	970
South Eastern Metropolitan Region	4186	22743		266862	20259	323
Southern Metropolitan Region	21934	52116		253398	33315	421
Western Metropolitan Region	20326	71476		291668	23803	2148
Western Victoria Region	23490	76859		292174	28150	760

Legislative Council Informal Vote

Region	Absent	Early	Voted	Ordinary	Postal	Provisional
Eastern Metropolitan Region	478	1113		8871	584	18
Eastern Victoria Region	548	1804		9113	515	53
Northern Metropolitan Region	63	127		15877	555
Northern Victoria Region	410	1536		8666	341	19
South Eastern Metropolitan Region	139	643		11395	432	11
Southern Metropolitan Region	439	922		7811	539	4
Western Metropolitan Region	725	2714		16117	493	96
Western Victoria Region	602	1846		9761	513	15

Legislative Council Total Vote

Region	Absent	Early	Voted	Ordinary	Postal	Provisional
Eastern Metropolitan Region	16882	53780		281584	32155	443
Eastern Victoria Region	17801	84559	4	286564	28883	1859
Northern Metropolitan Region	3989	6342		290171	24523
Northern Victoria Region	17090	78736	5	276183	20508	989
South Eastern Metropolitan Region	4325	23386		278257	20691	334
Southern Metropolitan Region	22373	53038		261209	33854	425
Western Metropolitan Region	21051	74190		307785	24296	2244
Western Victoria Region	24092	78705		301935	28663	775

Comparison Table	Assembly	Council
Region	Total	Total	Diff
Eastern Metropolitan Region	396917	384844	-12073
Eastern Victoria Region	426972	419670	-7302
Northern Metropolitan Region	397059	325025	-72034
Northern Victoria Region	400572	393511	-7061
South Eastern Metropolitan Region	408020	326993	-81027
Southern Metropolitan Region	386730	370899	-15831
Western Metropolitan Region	441248	429566	-11682
Western Victoria Region	437248	434170	-3078

VEC Refuses to provide information on the number of votes issued

In an extraordinary show of incompetence and lack of professionalism the Victorian Electoral Commission was unable to provide a list of ballot papers issued and received back for each voting centre. Anxious candidates and scrutineers are being left in the dark with an indication that 10,000's of votes have gone missing or unaccounted for.

A tally of the voting center ruined should have Eben available back on saturday and registered by the Commission and made available to scrutineers on Sunday but the VEC has no idea and are  one wee later still not able to provide any indication as to how many ballot papers have been issued and how many have been returned.

Pre-polling closed last Friday as did postal votes. This is akin to a bank manager saying you have an account but they can not tell you the balance of the account.  

The counting process is far from being open and transparent if scrutineers are not able to monitor the progress of the count and be assured that ballot papers have not been left out deliberately or by mistake.

Not even Anthony Green ABC eleVctoral analysis can provide any data as to what's outstanding.

Tully's Tally not Tallying

There is a big discrepancy with the total number of votes recorded for each Region in the VEC count to date.

The number of votes for each Upper-house Region does not tally , Whilst we understand that the upper-house and lower-house votes are not in sync the discrepancy with the number of ordinary 'polling place' votes is significant and should be the same for the both houses. There are significant differences that indicate that votes may have either been double counted, not yet included in the count or worst still missing.

Each voter in the Victorian election is entitled to two ballot papers one for the Legislative Assembly and one for the Legislative Council in theory there should be the same number of total votes for each region (Upper and lower house)

Scrutineers have requested copies of the VEC reconciliation report listing the number of ballot papers issues and recorded as being received back. However the VEC have failed to provide the requested information to date.

Based on the information available there is no way of knowing what is outstanding. Votes could go missing and we would not know.

A simple comparison with the Lower- house and the Upper-house is all we can go by until the VEC provides copies of the reconciliation report that they have said they will produce. This report should have been provided on Sunday when the Voting centres issued their declaration returns, Pre-poll should have been reported on the Saturday and Absentee should have been known and tabulated on Saturday night. The only unknown is the number of postal votes in the mail. ( The should know how many were issued and how many received back to date). None of this information is readily available on the VEC web site.

The VEC web site is reporting that all the ordinary votes cast n polling day have been counted yet there are huge decrepancies in the tallied results for ordinary votes.
 
The VEC is underging a recheck and they have withdrawn from publication the results of those districts being recheked.

We are clsoly monitoring the data publihsed so we can try and identify what changes are made during the count. Much more can and should be done to ensure thatb the process is open and tranparent. The publication of the reconsillationb report would go a long way to retsoring public confidence in the counting process, Confidence that was shattered back in 2006 which was undermined by the extent of stuff-ups in the vote counting where information was wrongly entered into the computer and votes went missing between Count A and Count B, data-files were deleted and backup copies not made all of which give rise for ongoing concern.


The tables below shows the total number of votes recored as 18:19 August 1, 2010

Region	Absent	Early	Ordinary	Postal	Total Votes
Sum of Legislative Assembly	148	39947	269660	25538	335293
Eastern Metropolitan Region	156	34887	271864	26078	332985
	-8	5060	-2204	-540	2308
Sum of Legislative Assembly	2603	58385	273170	18331	11
Eastern Victoria Region	2265	78738	276748	21771	379522
	338	-20353	-3578	-3440	-27033
Sum of Legislative Assembly	0	29817	250270	18475	298562
Northern Metropolitan Region		28489	272849	18797	320135
	0	1328	-22579	-322	-21573
Sum of Legislative Assembly	2850	64202	261666	13684	342402
Northern Victoria Region	5526	63283	266392	14602	349803
	-2676	919	-4726	-918	-7401
Sum of Legislative Assembly	0	32513	266805	24327	323645
South Eastern Metropolitan Region	707	38256	271279	23348	333590
	-707	-5743	-4474	979	-9945
Sum of Legislative Assembly	3850	34323	249888	17462	305523
Southern Metropolitan Region	7520	34356	252404	22676	316956
	-3670	-33	-2516	-5214	-11433
Sum of Legislative Assembly	3814	51258	287821	14068	356961
Western Metropolitan Region	1654	56775	289148	19259	366836
	2160	-5517	-1327	-5191	-9875
Sum of Legislative Assembly	1456	65865	287263	19689	374273
Western Victoria Region	2957	65272	291046	22881	382156
	-1501	593	-3783	-3192	-7883