A flaw in the way the Victorian Electoral Commission calculates the Surplus transfer value may deny the Liberal/National Parties a third seat in Northern Victoria. ALP ticket vote increases disportionaly in value at the expense of the Greens delivering a bonus 989 votes to Country Alliance allowing them to win the last seat not on merit but on the back of a flaw in the system.
UPDATE: Latest counting (@ 90.76% counted) has the Liberals move ahead of Country Alliance but the flaw in the counting system still remains although the extent of the distortion doees not effect teh outcime of the overall result. Liberal party win last seat.
Based on the data extracted from ABC Antony Greens Election calculator at 68.68% of the vote counted (quota 47735)
The ALP ticket vote increases in value as a result of the formula used to calculate the Surplus Transfer value.
(Surplus divided by the number of ballot papers)
In calculating the surplus transfer value the VEC divided the surplus equally by the number of ballot papers as opposed to taking into consideration the weighted value of each vote.
At the point where the ALP number 2 Candidate is elected (Count 9)
| Vote source | Papers | Value | Sum | Percentage |
| ALP Ticket | 77912 | 0.387322 | 30177 | 57.40% |
| Greens Primary | 22393 | 1.000000 | 22393 | 42.60% |
| Total Votes | 100305 |
| 52570 | 100.00% |
| Less Quota |
|
| -47735 |
|
| Surplus |
|
| 4835 |
|
Weighted Value of Surplus
| Value of ALP Ticket | 77912 | 0.035623 | 2775 | 57.40% |
| Value of Greens Vote | 22393 | 0.091973 | 2060 | 42.60% |
| Total Surplus | 100305 |
| 4835 | 100.00% |
Value allocated by VEC
| Value of ALP Ticket | 77912 | 0.048203 | 3756 | 77.68% |
| Value of Greens vote | 22393 | 0.048203 | 1079 | 22.32% |
| Total Surplus | 100305 |
| 4835 | 100.00% |
The Greens vote has been devalued 989 votes. The ALP ticket vote increased in value by the same amount. This is greater then the winning margin allocated to Country Alliance
Solution: Introduce a fully proportional counting system such as the
Wright system or the
Meek method.
One vote one value - Single transaction per candidate (Surplus or exclusion).Democratic Pure simple the Wright method
Antony Green's Calculator Legislative Council Results - Northern Victoria Region
Elected Candidates
| Candidate | Party |
| 1 | LOVELL, Wendy | Liberal Party |
| 2 | BROAD, Candy | Australian Labor Party |
| 3 | DRUM, Damian | National Party |
| 4 | DARVENIZA, Kaye | Australian Labor Party |
| 5 | THRELFALL, Steven | Country Alliance |
Detailed Results
- Percentage vote counted: 68.82%
- Quota: 47735 votes
Count 1: Initial allocation
| Party |
| Transfer |
| Total Votes | % Votes |
| Quotas |
| Liberal/National |
| 0 |
| 140,100 | 48.92% |
| 2.9349 |
| Australian Labor Party |
| 0 |
| 77,912 | 27.20% |
| 1.6321 |
| Australian Greens |
| 0 |
| 22,393 | 7.82% |
| 0.4691 |
| Country Alliance |
| 0 |
| 20,635 | 7.20% |
| 0.4322 |
| Australian Sex Party |
| 0 |
| 10,813 | 3.78% |
| 0.2265 |
| Family First Party |
| 0 |
| 8,229 | 2.87% |
| 0.1723 |
| Democratic Labor Party |
| 0 |
| 4,505 | 1.57% |
| 0.0943 |
| Christian Democratic Party |
| 0 |
| 1,818 | 0.63% |
| 0.0380 |
Count 2: LOVELL, Wendy (Liberal/National) elected #1
- 92,365 (32.25%) votes (140,100 ballot papers at 0.6593 transfer value) originally from Liberal/National distributed to Liberal/National (DRUM, Damian) via preference 2.
| Party |
| Transfer |
| Total Votes | % Votes |
| Quotas |
| Liberal/National |
| -47,735 |
| 92,365 | 32.25% |
| 1.9349 |
| Australian Labor Party |
| 0 |
| 77,912 | 27.20% |
| 1.6321 |
| Australian Greens |
| 0 |
| 22,393 | 7.82% |
| 0.4691 |
| Country Alliance |
| 0 |
| 20,635 | 7.20% |
| 0.4322 |
| Australian Sex Party |
| 0 |
| 10,813 | 3.78% |
| 0.2265 |
| Family First Party |
| 0 |
| 8,229 | 2.87% |
| 0.1723 |
| Democratic Labor Party |
| 0 |
| 4,505 | 1.57% |
| 0.0943 |
| Christian Democratic Party |
| 0 |
| 1,818 | 0.63% |
| 0.0380 |
Count 3: BROAD, Candy (Australian Labor Party) elected #2
- 30,177 (10.54%) votes (77,912 ballot papers at 0.3873 transfer value) originally from Australian Labor Party distributed to Australian Labor Party (DARVENIZA, Kaye) via preference 2.
| Party |
| Transfer |
| Total Votes | % Votes |
| Quotas |
| Liberal/National |
| 0 |
| 92,365 | 32.25% |
| 1.9349 |
| Australian Labor Party |
| -47,735 |
| 30,177 | 10.54% |
| 0.6321 |
| Australian Greens |
| 0 |
| 22,393 | 7.82% |
| 0.4691 |
| Country Alliance |
| 0 |
| 20,635 | 7.20% |
| 0.4322 |
| Australian Sex Party |
| 0 |
| 10,813 | 3.78% |
| 0.2265 |
| Family First Party |
| 0 |
| 8,229 | 2.87% |
| 0.1723 |
| Democratic Labor Party |
| 0 |
| 4,505 | 1.57% |
| 0.0943 |
| Christian Democratic Party |
| 0 |
| 1,818 | 0.63% |
| 0.0380 |
Count 4: DRUM, Damian (Liberal/National) elected #3
- 44,630 (15.58%) votes (140,100 ballot papers at 0.3186 transfer value) originally from Liberal/National distributed to Liberal/National (PETROVICH, Donna) via preference 3.
| Party |
| Transfer |
| Total Votes | % Votes |
| Quotas |
| Liberal/National |
| -47,735 |
| 44,630 | 15.58% |
| 0.9349 |
| Australian Labor Party |
| 0 |
| 30,177 | 10.54% |
| 0.6321 |
| Australian Greens |
| 0 |
| 22,393 | 7.82% |
| 0.4691 |
| Country Alliance |
| 0 |
| 20,635 | 7.20% |
| 0.4322 |
| Australian Sex Party |
| 0 |
| 10,813 | 3.78% |
| 0.2265 |
| Family First Party |
| 0 |
| 8,229 | 2.87% |
| 0.1723 |
| Democratic Labor Party |
| 0 |
| 4,505 | 1.57% |
| 0.0943 |
| Christian Democratic Party |
| 0 |
| 1,818 | 0.63% |
| 0.0380 |
Count 5: McDONALD, Ewan (Christian Democratic Party) excluded
- 1,818 (0.63%) votes originally from Christian Democratic Party distributed to Democratic Labor Party (ROYAL, Mark) via preference 4.
| Party |
| Transfer |
| Total Votes | % Votes |
| Quotas |
| Liberal/National |
| 0 |
| 44,630 | 15.58% |
| 0.9349 |
| Australian Labor Party |
| 0 |
| 30,177 | 10.54% |
| 0.6321 |
| Australian Greens |
| 0 |
| 22,393 | 7.82% |
| 0.4691 |
| Country Alliance |
| 0 |
| 20,635 | 7.20% |
| 0.4322 |
| Australian Sex Party |
| 0 |
| 10,813 | 3.78% |
| 0.2265 |
| Family First Party |
| 0 |
| 8,229 | 2.87% |
| 0.1723 |
| Democratic Labor Party |
| +1,818 |
| 6,323 | 2.21% |
| 0.1324 |
Count 6: ROYAL, Mark (Democratic Labor Party) excluded
- 4,505 (1.57%) votes originally from Democratic Labor Party distributed to Country Alliance (THRELFALL, Steven) via preference 3.
- 1,818 (0.63%) votes originally from Christian Democratic Party distributed to Family First Party (WINTLE, Laurie) via preference 5.
| Party |
| Transfer |
| Total Votes | % Votes |
| Quotas |
| Liberal/National |
| 0 |
| 44,630 | 15.58% |
| 0.9349 |
| Australian Labor Party |
| 0 |
| 30,177 | 10.54% |
| 0.6321 |
| Country Alliance |
| +4,505 |
| 25,140 | 8.78% |
| 0.5266 |
| Australian Greens |
| 0 |
| 22,393 | 7.82% |
| 0.4691 |
| Australian Sex Party |
| 0 |
| 10,813 | 3.78% |
| 0.2265 |
| Family First Party |
| +1,818 |
| 10,047 | 3.51% |
| 0.2104 |
Count 7: WINTLE, Laurie (Family First Party) excluded
- 8,229 (2.87%) votes originally from Family First Party distributed to Country Alliance (THRELFALL, Steven) via preference 7.
- 1,818 (0.63%) votes originally from Christian Democratic Party distributed to Liberal/National (PETROVICH, Donna) via preference 8.
| Party |
| Transfer |
| Total Votes | % Votes |
| Quotas |
| Liberal/National |
| +1,818 |
| 46,448 | 16.22% |
| 0.9730 |
| Country Alliance |
| +8,229 |
| 33,369 | 11.65% |
| 0.6990 |
| Australian Labor Party |
| 0 |
| 30,177 | 10.54% |
| 0.6321 |
| Australian Greens |
| 0 |
| 22,393 | 7.82% |
| 0.4691 |
| Australian Sex Party |
| 0 |
| 10,813 | 3.78% |
| 0.2265 |
Count 8: CHELLEW, Tristram (Australian Sex Party) excluded
- 10,813 (3.78%) votes originally from Australian Sex Party distributed to Country Alliance (THRELFALL, Steven) via preference 3.
| Party |
| Transfer |
| Total Votes | % Votes |
| Quotas |
| Liberal/National |
| 0 |
| 46,448 | 16.22% |
| 0.9730 |
| Country Alliance |
| +10,813 |
| 44,182 | 15.43% |
| 0.9255 |
| Australian Labor Party |
| 0 |
| 30,177 | 10.54% |
| 0.6321 |
| Australian Greens |
| 0 |
| 22,393 | 7.82% |
| 0.4691 |
Count 9: JONES, David (Australian Greens) excluded
- 22,393 (7.82%) votes originally from Australian Greens distributed to Australian Labor Party (DARVENIZA, Kaye) via preference 7.
- DARVENIZA, Kaye (Australian Labor Party) provisionally elected.
| Party |
| Transfer |
| Total Votes | % Votes |
| Quotas |
| Australian Labor Party |
| +22,393 |
| 52,570 | 18.36% |
| 1.1012 |
| Liberal/National |
| 0 |
| 46,448 | 16.22% |
| 0.9730 |
| Country Alliance |
| 0 |
| 44,182 | 15.43% |
| 0.9255 |
Count 10: DARVENIZA, Kaye (Australian Labor Party) elected #4
- 3,755 (1.31%) votes (77,912 ballot papers at 0.0482 transfer value) originally from Australian Labor Party distributed to Country Alliance (THRELFALL, Steven) via preference 6.
- 1,079 (0.38%) votes (22,393 ballot papers at 0.0482 transfer value) originally from Australian Greens distributed to Liberal/National (PETROVICH, Donna) via preference 21.
- THRELFALL, Steven (Country Alliance) provisionally elected.
| Party |
| Transfer |
| Total Votes | % Votes |
| Quotas |
| Country Alliance |
| +3,755 |
| 47,937 | 16.74% |
| 1.0042 |
| Liberal/National |
| +1,079 |
| 47,527 | 16.59% |
| 0.9956 |
Count 11: THRELFALL, Steven (Country Alliance) elected #5
- The last vacancy has been filled.
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