Wednesday, April 15, 2015

JSCEM Report 2013 Australian Federal Election


JSCEM Final report of the 2013 Federal Election has been published.

http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Joint/Electoral_Matters/2013_General_Election/Final_Report

Missing is the much needed review of the method of counting the senate election.

The need for

  1. A Weighted Surplus Transfer system.
  2. A reiterative system of distribution of preferences from excluded candidates where the count is reset and restarted on each candidate(s) exclusion
  3. The scraping of the Droop quota and the adoption of a pure proportional representative model (x/y)
  4. The retention of Above-the-line (ATL) Group voting with the allocation of ATL voting to be equally distributed to each candidate within the group. The group maintaining the right to determine the order of exclusion within the group.

The guiding principle being

“That votes from excluded candidates should be redistributed and counted as if the excluded candidate(s) had not stood

The current system is disproportionate and favours minor parties/Candidates and does not reflect the voters intentions.

A full value vote should always be allocated to the first available continuing candidate without skipping and jumping.

A reiterative counting system would also allow of the adjustment of the quota for election on each iteration, facilitating optional preferential voting..

The current outdated system of counting the vote was designed to facilitate a manual count.

With the use of computer based technology there is no excuse or justification to maintain the outdated flawed system of counting the Senate vote.

Monday, August 26, 2013

TAS Senate Group Preference flow

It is said that Everybody in Tasmania has a member of the family in public office. It is the most over governed state in Australia. The home of Bob Brown fomer leader and patron of the Greens and maverick Member for Denison, Andrew Wilkie.

The Greens are expected to lose support this round but will still remain above quota

The question is will the ALP hold on to three seats or will they lose a seat to an independent group? 

The Liberal Party is expected to retain two senate seats. Prefernce flows are a mixed batch with the ALP having the edge over the Liberal Party.  We expect no change in overall results between 2010 and 2013 

However that is all ways depends on the extent of the swing against the ALP who also holds control of the State Parliament. Family First has a chance.  Had Wikileaks ran in this seat then this State would have been much more interesting to watch.


ABC State Seat Historical voting statistics used as a base in analysis and ABC Senate Calculator


Tasmania


Candidate Party
1 Carol BROWN Australian Labor Party
2 Richard COLBECK Liberal Party
3 Peter WHISH-WILSON Australian Greens
4 Catryna BILYK Australian Labor Party
5 David BUSHBY Liberal Party
6 Lin THORP Australian Labor Party








ID Group Name Group Preference Flow
 A Country Alliance  ASXP   LP   AFLP   ALP   ODR   FFP   GRN
 B Liberal Democrats  ODR   FFP   ASXP   AFLP   LP   ALP   GRN
 C Australian Labor Party  ALP   GRN   ASXP   FFP   ODR   AFLP   LP
 D Rise Up Australia Party  FFP   AFLP   ODR   LP   ALP   ASXP   GRN
 E Liberal  LP   FFP   AFLP   ODR   ALP   ASXP   GRN
 F Palmer United Party  FFP   GRN   ASXP   AFLP   ODR   LP   ALP
 G Australian Christians  FFP   AFLP   LP   ODR   ALP   GRN   ASXP
 H DLP Democratic Labour  AFLP   ODR   FFP   LP   ALP   ASXP   GRN
 I Pirate Party  GRN   ASXP   AFLP   ALP   LP   ODR   FFP
 J Australian Greens  GRN   ASXP   ALP   FFP   LP   AFLP   ODR
 K Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party  ASXP   AFLP   ALP   GRN   FFP   ODR   LP
 L Shooters and Fishers  AFLP   ASXP   FFP   ODR   ALP   LP   GRN
 M Australian Independents  FFP   ASXP   AFLP   ODR   GRN   LP   ALP
 N Sex Party  ASXP   AFLP   ALP   GRN   LP   ODR   FFP
 O Senator Online (Internet Voting Bills/Issues)  AFLP   FFP   ASXP   ODR   GRN   ALP   LP
 P Katter's Australian Party  FFP   AFLP   ODR   LP   GRN   ALP   ASXP
 Q No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics  FFP   AFLP   ASXP   ODR   ALP   LP   GRN
 R Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party  AFLP   FFP   ASXP   ODR   ALP   LP   GRN
 S Stable Population Party  ASXP   AFLP   FFP   GRN   ALP   LP   ODR
 S Stable Population Party  ASXP   AFLP   FFP   ALP   LP   GRN   ODR
 S Stable Population Party  ASXP   AFLP   FFP   LP   GRN   ALP   ODR
 U The Australian Republicans  ODR   ASXP   FFP   AFLP   LP   ALP   GRN
 V Smokers Rights  FFP   AFLP   ODR   LP   ALP   GRN   ASXP
 W Family First  ODR   FFP   ASXP   AFLP   LP   ALP   GRN

Greens face prospect of losing representation go on the attack

The Greens are facing defeat in Western Australia, New South Wales and Queensland.  Their greatest threat is from Wikileaks Party

The Greens could also lose a seat to Assange in Victoria should the ALP surplus and the Greens primary vote fall below 14% however the odds are in favour of the Greens winning in Victoria on the back of ALP preferences.

In a surprised turn of events Family First is also in the running to win seats in Victoria taking a seat from Liberal Party's Helen  Kroger and possibly one in Western Australia.

Vote Wikileaks and Family First are well placed to take advantage of above the line group voting tickets

The Greens are desperate to try and discredit Wikileaks that they are going around pushing false statement and claims that a vote for Wikileaks is a vote for Tony Abbott,  This is not the case.

In all analyses using the ABC Senate Calculator and our own database Wikileaks preferences do not  impact on the coalition votes at all. Wikileaks could help Sex Party gain a senate seat in NSW again at the expense of the Greens

Our analysis was done by allocating 3-4% to wikileaks and reducing the Greens vote and adjusting prefernces for other parties to take into account expected votes allocatd to new partis such as Clive Palmer, Bob Katter and the Sex Party to determine the required thresholds and shifts in the polls.
 
The Greens are expected only to hold on to a seat in South Australia, Tasmania and Victoria

Victoria


Candidate Party
1 Mitch FIFIELD Liberal Party
2 Gavin MARSHALL Australian Labor Party
3 Scott RYAN Liberal Party
4 Jacinta COLLINS Australian Labor Party
5 Ashley FENN Family First Party
6 Julian ASSANGE The Wikileaks Party  * 
* Wikeleaks most likely to lose out to Greens on the back of ALP Surplus preferences

New South Wales


Candidate Party
1 Marise PAYNE Liberal Party
2 Bob CARR Australian Labor Party
3 John WILLIAMS The Nationals
4 Doug CAMERON Australian Labor Party
5 Arthur SINODINOS Liberal Party
6 Graeme DUNNE Australian Sex Party

Western Asutralia


Candidate Party
1 David JOHNSTON Liberal Party
2 Joe BULLOCK Australian Labor Party
3 Michaelia CASH Liberal Party
4 Linda REYNOLDS Liberal Party
5 Louise PRATT Australian Labor Party
6 Gerry GEORGATOS The Wikileaks Party

 Queensland


Candidate Party
1 Ian MACDONALD Liberal National Party
2 Chris KETTER Australian Labor Party
3 James McGRATH Liberal National Party
4 Claire MOORE Australian Labor Party
5 Matthew CANAVAN Liberal National Party
6 Aidan McLINDON Family First Party
* Family First most likely to lose out to Greens in a close election for te last seat

South Australia


Candidate Party
1 Penny WONG Australian Labor Party
2 Cory BERNARDI Liberal Party
3 Don FARRELL Australian Labor Party
4 Simon BIRMINGHAM Liberal Party
5 Nick XENOPHON Nick Xenophon Group
6 Sarah HANSON-YOUNG Australian Greens

Tasmania


Candidate Party
1 Carol BROWN Australian Labor Party
2 Richard COLBECK Liberal Party
3 Peter WHISH-WILSON Australian Greens
4 Catryna BILYK Australian Labor Party
5 David BUSHBY Liberal Party
6 Lin THORP Australian Labor Party

Vic Senate Group Ticket Preference Flow

The table below shows the group preference flow to the last 8 standing candidates/groups/

You need to allocate the percentage each group will achieve and then fold up the count having deducted to quotas from the ALP and LNP the remaining surplus an minor parties votes are then distributed according to the table below.  It is a guide only.

ABC State Seat Historical voting statistics used as a base in analysis

You should be able to create a spreadsheet with each of the 8 groups in a column and then calculate the expected outcomes using the ABC Senate Calculator


Note: 

There are a number of flaws and distortions in the way the AEC count the vote, most notably the calculation of the surplus transfer value and the segmentation of distribution of excluded candidates, remainders and the issue of the droop quota.  These distortions were implemented to facilitate a manual count. They can represent up to 70,000 votes or more. In the case of the Droop quota 14% of votes are ignored in determining the results.

With computer aided counting these distortions can and should be removed

In 2007 the method of segmentation and distribution of exclusions denied the Greens representation in the Senate The Greens remained silent. Ignorance is bliss

  


Group NamePreference Flow
RISE UP AUSTRALIA PARTY  DLP   FFP   LPNP   DEM   ALP   WKP   ASXP   GRN
SENATOR ONLINE (INTERNET VOTING BILLS/ISSUES)  FFP   ASXP   WKP   DEM   DLP   GRN   ALP   LPNP
LIBERAL/THE NATIONALS  LPNP   FFP   DLP   ASXP   DEM   ALP   WKP   GRN
LIBERAL/THE NATIONALS  LPNP   DLP   FFP   ASXP   DEM   ALP   WKP   GRN
HELP END MARIJUANA PROHIBITION (HEMP) PARTY  DEM   ASXP   WKP   GRN   ALP   FFP   DLP   LPNP
HELP END MARIJUANA PROHIBITION (HEMP) PARTY  DEM   ASXP   WKP   ALP   GRN   FFP   DLP   LPNP
HELP END MARIJUANA PROHIBITION (HEMP) PARTY  DEM   ASXP   WKP   ALP   GRN   FFP   DLP   LPNP
FAMILY FIRST  FFP   DEM   DLP   WKP   LPNP   ALP   GRN   ASXP
COUNTRY ALLIANCE  ASXP   DLP   LPNP   ALP   FFP   DEM   WKP   GRN
SECULAR PARTY OF AUSTRALIA  DEM   ASXP   WKP   GRN   ALP   LPNP   DLP   FFP
NO CARBON TAX CLIMATE SCEPTICS  DLP   FFP   ASXP   WKP   DEM   ALP   LPNP   GRN
BANK REFORM PARTY  FFP   ASXP   DEM   WKP   DLP   ALP   LPNP   GRN
STABLE POPULATION PARTY  DEM   FFP   ASXP   WKP   GRN   ALP   LPNP   DLP
STABLE POPULATION PARTY  DEM   FFP   ASXP   WKP   ALP   LPNP   GRN   DLP
STABLE POPULATION PARTY  DEM   FFP   ASXP   WKP   LPNP   GRN   ALP   DLP
AUSTRALIAN FISHING AND LIFESTYLE PARTY  FFP   ASXP   DLP   DEM   LPNP   ALP   WKP   GRN
SHOOTERS AND FISHERS  FFP   ASXP   DLP   DEM   LPNP   ALP   WKP   GRN
BUILDING AUSTRALIA PARTY  DEM   FFP   WKP   ASXP   DLP   LPNP   ALP   GRN
AUSTRALIAN VOICE PARTY  ASXP   WKP   FFP   DEM   DLP   LPNP   ALP   GRN
AUSTRALIAN INDEPENDENTS  DEM   FFP   DLP   ASXP   WKP   GRN   LPNP   ALP
THE GREENS  GRN   WKP   ASXP   DEM   ALP   FFP   LPNP   DLP
 WKP   GRN   ALP   DEM   ASXP   LPNP   DLP   FFP
STOP CSG  DEM   ASXP   FFP   WKP   GRN   ALP   LPNP   DLP
KATTER'S AUSTRALIAN PARTY  DLP   FFP   WKP   LPNP   ALP   DEM   GRN   ASXP
PALMER UNITED PARTY  FFP   DEM   GRN   LPNP   WKP   ASXP   ALP   DLP
ANIMAL JUSTICE PARTY  DEM   WKP   ASXP   FFP   DLP   GRN   ALP   LPNP
AUSTRALIAN MOTORING ENTHUSIAST PARTY  FFP   ASXP   DEM   WKP   DLP   LPNP   ALP   GRN
AUSTRALIAN MOTORING ENTHUSIAST PARTY  FFP   ASXP   DEM   WKP   DLP   ALP   LPNP   GRN
THE WIKILEAKS PARTY  WKP   ASXP   DEM   GRN   ALP   LPNP   FFP   DLP
AUSTRALIAN DEMOCRATS  DEM   ASXP   FFP   WKP   GRN   ALP   LPNP   DLP
AUSTRALIAN DEMOCRATS  DEM   ASXP   FFP   WKP   GRN   LPNP   ALP   DLP
SEX PARTY  ASXP   WKP   DEM   ALP   GRN   LPNP   DLP   FFP
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY  ALP   GRN   ASXP   DEM   WKP   DLP   FFP   LPNP
DRUG LAW REFORM  DEM   ASXP   WKP   GRN   ALP   LPNP   FFP   DLP
DRUG LAW REFORM  DEM   ASXP   WKP   GRN   LPNP   ALP   FFP   DLP
BULLET TRAIN FOR AUSTRALIA  DEM   ASXP   FFP   DLP   WKP   ALP   GRN   LPNP
AUSTRALIAN CHRISTIANS  FFP   DLP   LPNP   ALP   DEM   WKP   GRN   ASXP
CITIZENS ELECTORAL COUNCIL  FFP   DLP   WKP   DEM   ALP   LPNP   GRN   ASXP
CITIZENS ELECTORAL COUNCIL  FFP   DLP   WKP   LPNP   DEM   ALP   GRN   ASXP
 DLP   WKP   GRN   DEM   ALP   ASXP   LPNP   FFP
SOCIALIST EQUALITY PARTY  LPNP   FFP   GRN   WKP   DEM   ASXP   ALP   DLP
SOCIALIST EQUALITY PARTY  ALP   DLP   LPNP   FFP   GRN   WKP   DEM   ASXP
SOCIALIST EQUALITY PARTY  GRN   WKP   DEM   ASXP   ALP   DLP   LPNP   FFP
PIRATE PARTY  DEM   WKP   GRN   ASXP   DLP   ALP   LPNP   FFP
DLP DEMOCRATIC LABOUR  DLP   FFP   LPNP   ALP   DEM   WKP   ASXP   GRN

 

NSW Senate Group Ticket Preference Flow

Sex Party has the potential of being elected in NSW based on analysis of the Group ticket preferences

The Liberal party is expected to win three Senate seats and the ALP should hold on to two seats,  The battle for the last seat will be determined on preferences with the Greens falling below quota. The Greens do not favour well on the preference flow with Wikileaks and Sex Party place a head of the Greens if the Greens are unable to secure a quota in their own right and the ALP surplus is low then Sex Party is best placed to win its first Senate seat in NSW

Analyses undertaken using the ABC Senate calculator based on 2010 Figures with adjustments to take into consideration new parties and shift in support from the ALP to the  Liberal Party.  Support for Wikileaks is expected to come primarily from the Greens Primary vote which explains why teh Greens are hell bent on attacking Wikileaks where possible.


See ABC State Seat Historical voting statistics used as a base in analysis

New South Wales


Candidate Party
1 Marise PAYNE Liberal Party
2 Bob CARR Australian Labor Party
3 John WILLIAMS The Nationals
4 Doug CAMERON Australian Labor Party
5 Arthur SINODINOS Liberal Party
6 Graeme DUNNE Australian Sex Party






Group Group Name Preference Flow
 A Liberal Democrats  WKP   DLP   FFP   LPNP   ASP   ALP   GRN
 B No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics  ASP   DLP   FFP   WKP   ALP   LPNP   GRN
 C Democratic Labour Party (DLP)  DLP   FFP   ASP   ALP   LPNP   WKP   GRN
 D Senator Online (Internet Voting Bills/Issues)  ASP   FFP   WKP   DLP   ALP   LPNP   GRN
 E Voluntary Euthanasia Party  WKP   GRN   DLP   ASP   FFP   ALP   LPNP
 F  ALP   LPNP   GRN   WKP   DLP   ASP   FFP
 G Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party  WKP   GRN   ALP   ASP   FFP   DLP   LPNP
 G Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party  WKP   ALP   GRN   ASP   FFP   DLP   LPNP
 G Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party  WKP   GRN   ALP   ASP   FFP   DLP   LPNP
 H Carers Alliance  LPNP   WKP   DLP   FFP   ALP   ASP   GRN
 I The Wikileaks Party  WKP   ASP   GRN   ALP   FFP   DLP   LPNP
 J Rise Up Australia Party  DLP   FFP   ASP   LPNP   ALP   WKP   GRN
 K Future Party  WKP   GRN   ALP   LPNP   ASP   DLP   FFP
 L Christian Democratic Party (Fred Nile Group)  ASP   DLP   FFP   LPNP   ALP   WKP   GRN
 M Labor  ALP   GRN   ASP   WKP   DLP   FFP   LPNP
 N Katter's Australian Party  DLP   WKP   ASP   FFP   LPNP   ALP   GRN
 O Australian Voice  ASP   FFP   WKP   DLP   LPNP   ALP   GRN
 P Sex Party  WKP   ASP   GRN   ALP   LPNP   FFP   DLP
 Q Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party  ASP   FFP   DLP   ALP   LPNP   WKP   GRN
 R The Greens  GRN   WKP   ALP   LPNP   DLP   FFP   ASP
 S Palmer United Party  FFP   LPNP   DLP   WKP   GRN   ASP   ALP
 T Building Australia Party  FFP   ASP   WKP   DLP   LPNP   ALP   GRN
 U Uniting Australia Party  ASP   WKP   FFP   DLP   LPNP   ALP   GRN
 V Stop The Greens  WKP   DLP   FFP   LPNP   ASP   ALP   GRN
 W Smokers Rights  WKP   DLP   FFP   LPNP   ASP   ALP   GRN
 X Bullet Train For Australia  WKP   DLP   ASP   FFP   GRN   ALP   LPNP
 Y Liberal  LPNP   ASP   DLP   FFP   ALP   WKP   GRN
 Z Australian Protectionist Party  ASP   DLP   FFP   WKP   LPNP   ALP   GRN
AA Animal Justice Party  FFP   WKP   GRN   ALP   LPNP   DLP   ASP
AB Australia First Party  FFP   ASP   WKP   DLP   ALP   LPNP   GRN
AC Australian Independents  ASP   FFP   WKP   DLP   GRN   LPNP   ALP
AD Drug Law Reform  WKP   GRN   ALP   LPNP   DLP   FFP   ASP
AE Socialist Equality Party  ALP   GRN   LPNP   FFP   ASP   DLP   WKP
AE Socialist Equality Party  GRN   LPNP   FFP   ASP   DLP   WKP   ALP
AE Socialist Equality Party  LPNP   FFP   ASP   DLP   WKP   ALP   GRN
AF Australian Democrats  WKP   GRN   DLP   ALP   LPNP   FFP   ASP
AF Australian Democrats  WKP   GRN   DLP   LPNP   ALP   FFP   ASP
AG  ALP   LPNP   GRN   WKP   ASP   FFP   DLP
AH Family First Party  FFP   ASP   DLP   WKP   LPNP   ALP   GRN
AI Stable Population Party  FFP   WKP   GRN   ALP   LPNP   DLP   ASP
AI Stable Population Party  FFP   WKP   ALP   GRN   LPNP   DLP   ASP
AI Stable Population Party  FFP   WKP   LPNP   GRN   ALP   DLP   ASP
AJ Shooters and Fishers  ASP   FFP   DLP   ALP   LPNP   WKP   GRN
AK Stop CSG  WKP   FFP   GRN   ALP   LPNP   DLP   ASP
AL The Australian Republicans  LPNP   WKP   GRN   ALP   FFP   ASP   DLP
AM Socialist Alliance  GRN   WKP   ALP   LPNP   DLP   ASP   FFP
AN Non-Custodial Parents Party (Equal Parenting)  WKP   FFP   DLP   ASP   LPNP   ALP   GRN
AO Pirate Party  GRN   WKP   DLP   ALP   ASP   LPNP   FFP
AP Secular Party of Australia  WKP   GRN   ALP   LPNP   ASP   DLP   FFP
AQ Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party  ASP   FFP   WKP   DLP   LPNP   ALP   GRN
AR One Nation  DLP   FFP   ASP   WKP   LPNP   ALP   GRN
AR One Nation  DLP   FFP   ASP   WKP   ALP   LPNP   GRN