The Liberal party is expected to win three Senate seats and the ALP should hold on to two seats, The battle for the last seat will be determined on preferences with the Greens falling below quota. The Greens do not favour well on the preference flow with Wikileaks and Sex Party place a head of the Greens if the Greens are unable to secure a quota in their own right and the ALP surplus is low then Sex Party is best placed to win its first Senate seat in NSW
Analyses undertaken using the ABC Senate calculator based on 2010 Figures with adjustments to take into consideration new parties and shift in support from the ALP to the Liberal Party. Support for Wikileaks is expected to come primarily from the Greens Primary vote which explains why teh Greens are hell bent on attacking Wikileaks where possible.
See ABC State Seat Historical voting statistics used as a base in analysis
New South Wales
Candidate | Party | |
---|---|---|
1 | Marise PAYNE | Liberal Party |
2 | Bob CARR | Australian Labor Party |
3 | John WILLIAMS | The Nationals |
4 | Doug CAMERON | Australian Labor Party |
5 | Arthur SINODINOS | Liberal Party |
6 | Graeme DUNNE | Australian Sex Party |
Group | Group Name | Preference Flow | ||||||
A | Liberal Democrats | WKP | DLP | FFP | LPNP | ASP | ALP | GRN |
B | No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics | ASP | DLP | FFP | WKP | ALP | LPNP | GRN |
C | Democratic Labour Party (DLP) | DLP | FFP | ASP | ALP | LPNP | WKP | GRN |
D | Senator Online (Internet Voting Bills/Issues) | ASP | FFP | WKP | DLP | ALP | LPNP | GRN |
E | Voluntary Euthanasia Party | WKP | GRN | DLP | ASP | FFP | ALP | LPNP |
F | ALP | LPNP | GRN | WKP | DLP | ASP | FFP | |
G | Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party | WKP | GRN | ALP | ASP | FFP | DLP | LPNP |
G | Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party | WKP | ALP | GRN | ASP | FFP | DLP | LPNP |
G | Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party | WKP | GRN | ALP | ASP | FFP | DLP | LPNP |
H | Carers Alliance | LPNP | WKP | DLP | FFP | ALP | ASP | GRN |
I | The Wikileaks Party | WKP | ASP | GRN | ALP | FFP | DLP | LPNP |
J | Rise Up Australia Party | DLP | FFP | ASP | LPNP | ALP | WKP | GRN |
K | Future Party | WKP | GRN | ALP | LPNP | ASP | DLP | FFP |
L | Christian Democratic Party (Fred Nile Group) | ASP | DLP | FFP | LPNP | ALP | WKP | GRN |
M | Labor | ALP | GRN | ASP | WKP | DLP | FFP | LPNP |
N | Katter's Australian Party | DLP | WKP | ASP | FFP | LPNP | ALP | GRN |
O | Australian Voice | ASP | FFP | WKP | DLP | LPNP | ALP | GRN |
P | Sex Party | WKP | ASP | GRN | ALP | LPNP | FFP | DLP |
Q | Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party | ASP | FFP | DLP | ALP | LPNP | WKP | GRN |
R | The Greens | GRN | WKP | ALP | LPNP | DLP | FFP | ASP |
S | Palmer United Party | FFP | LPNP | DLP | WKP | GRN | ASP | ALP |
T | Building Australia Party | FFP | ASP | WKP | DLP | LPNP | ALP | GRN |
U | Uniting Australia Party | ASP | WKP | FFP | DLP | LPNP | ALP | GRN |
V | Stop The Greens | WKP | DLP | FFP | LPNP | ASP | ALP | GRN |
W | Smokers Rights | WKP | DLP | FFP | LPNP | ASP | ALP | GRN |
X | Bullet Train For Australia | WKP | DLP | ASP | FFP | GRN | ALP | LPNP |
Y | Liberal | LPNP | ASP | DLP | FFP | ALP | WKP | GRN |
Z | Australian Protectionist Party | ASP | DLP | FFP | WKP | LPNP | ALP | GRN |
AA | Animal Justice Party | FFP | WKP | GRN | ALP | LPNP | DLP | ASP |
AB | Australia First Party | FFP | ASP | WKP | DLP | ALP | LPNP | GRN |
AC | Australian Independents | ASP | FFP | WKP | DLP | GRN | LPNP | ALP |
AD | Drug Law Reform | WKP | GRN | ALP | LPNP | DLP | FFP | ASP |
AE | Socialist Equality Party | ALP | GRN | LPNP | FFP | ASP | DLP | WKP |
AE | Socialist Equality Party | GRN | LPNP | FFP | ASP | DLP | WKP | ALP |
AE | Socialist Equality Party | LPNP | FFP | ASP | DLP | WKP | ALP | GRN |
AF | Australian Democrats | WKP | GRN | DLP | ALP | LPNP | FFP | ASP |
AF | Australian Democrats | WKP | GRN | DLP | LPNP | ALP | FFP | ASP |
AG | ALP | LPNP | GRN | WKP | ASP | FFP | DLP | |
AH | Family First Party | FFP | ASP | DLP | WKP | LPNP | ALP | GRN |
AI | Stable Population Party | FFP | WKP | GRN | ALP | LPNP | DLP | ASP |
AI | Stable Population Party | FFP | WKP | ALP | GRN | LPNP | DLP | ASP |
AI | Stable Population Party | FFP | WKP | LPNP | GRN | ALP | DLP | ASP |
AJ | Shooters and Fishers | ASP | FFP | DLP | ALP | LPNP | WKP | GRN |
AK | Stop CSG | WKP | FFP | GRN | ALP | LPNP | DLP | ASP |
AL | The Australian Republicans | LPNP | WKP | GRN | ALP | FFP | ASP | DLP |
AM | Socialist Alliance | GRN | WKP | ALP | LPNP | DLP | ASP | FFP |
AN | Non-Custodial Parents Party (Equal Parenting) | WKP | FFP | DLP | ASP | LPNP | ALP | GRN |
AO | Pirate Party | GRN | WKP | DLP | ALP | ASP | LPNP | FFP |
AP | Secular Party of Australia | WKP | GRN | ALP | LPNP | ASP | DLP | FFP |
AQ | Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party | ASP | FFP | WKP | DLP | LPNP | ALP | GRN |
AR | One Nation | DLP | FFP | ASP | WKP | LPNP | ALP | GRN |
AR | One Nation | DLP | FFP | ASP | WKP | ALP | LPNP | GRN |
No comments:
Post a Comment