TAS Senate Group Preference flow

It is said that Everybody in Tasmania has a member of the family in public office. It is the most over governed state in Australia. The home of Bob Brown fomer leader and patron of the Greens and maverick Member for Denison, Andrew Wilkie.

The Greens are expected to lose support this round but will still remain above quota

The question is will the ALP hold on to three seats or will they lose a seat to an independent group? 

The Liberal Party is expected to retain two senate seats. Prefernce flows are a mixed batch with the ALP having the edge over the Liberal Party.  We expect no change in overall results between 2010 and 2013 

However that is all ways depends on the extent of the swing against the ALP who also holds control of the State Parliament. Family First has a chance.  Had Wikileaks ran in this seat then this State would have been much more interesting to watch.


ABC State Seat Historical voting statistics used as a base in analysis and ABC Senate Calculator

Tasmania

	Candidate	Party
1	Carol BROWN	Australian Labor Party
2	Richard COLBECK	Liberal Party
3	Peter WHISH-WILSON	Australian Greens
4	Catryna BILYK	Australian Labor Party
5	David BUSHBY	Liberal Party
6	Lin THORP	Australian Labor Party

ID	Group Name	Group Preference Flow
A	Country Alliance	ASXP	LP	AFLP	ALP	ODR	FFP	GRN
B	Liberal Democrats	ODR	FFP	ASXP	AFLP	LP	ALP	GRN
C	Australian Labor Party	ALP	GRN	ASXP	FFP	ODR	AFLP	LP
D	Rise Up Australia Party	FFP	AFLP	ODR	LP	ALP	ASXP	GRN
E	Liberal	LP	FFP	AFLP	ODR	ALP	ASXP	GRN
F	Palmer United Party	FFP	GRN	ASXP	AFLP	ODR	LP	ALP
G	Australian Christians	FFP	AFLP	LP	ODR	ALP	GRN	ASXP
H	DLP Democratic Labour	AFLP	ODR	FFP	LP	ALP	ASXP	GRN
I	Pirate Party	GRN	ASXP	AFLP	ALP	LP	ODR	FFP
J	Australian Greens	GRN	ASXP	ALP	FFP	LP	AFLP	ODR
K	Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party	ASXP	AFLP	ALP	GRN	FFP	ODR	LP
L	Shooters and Fishers	AFLP	ASXP	FFP	ODR	ALP	LP	GRN
M	Australian Independents	FFP	ASXP	AFLP	ODR	GRN	LP	ALP
N	Sex Party	ASXP	AFLP	ALP	GRN	LP	ODR	FFP
O	Senator Online (Internet Voting Bills/Issues)	AFLP	FFP	ASXP	ODR	GRN	ALP	LP
P	Katter's Australian Party	FFP	AFLP	ODR	LP	GRN	ALP	ASXP
Q	No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics	FFP	AFLP	ASXP	ODR	ALP	LP	GRN
R	Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party	AFLP	FFP	ASXP	ODR	ALP	LP	GRN
S	Stable Population Party	ASXP	AFLP	FFP	GRN	ALP	LP	ODR
S	Stable Population Party	ASXP	AFLP	FFP	ALP	LP	GRN	ODR
S	Stable Population Party	ASXP	AFLP	FFP	LP	GRN	ALP	ODR
U	The Australian Republicans	ODR	ASXP	FFP	AFLP	LP	ALP	GRN
V	Smokers Rights	FFP	AFLP	ODR	LP	ALP	GRN	ASXP
W	Family First	ODR	FFP	ASXP	AFLP	LP	ALP	GRN