Sunday, May 5, 2013

Green bias in Flawed ABC Calculator Against Melbourne and Sitting Independents

There is a noticeable flaw in ABC Anthony Green's Election Calculator in that he has awarded the seat of Melbourne to the Greens based on the Essential Research quarterly state poll

The Greens only won Melbourne in 2010 because the Liberal Party at the time preferenced them ahead of the ALP. A mistake they are unlikely repeat in September.

In 2010 the State Liberal party fearing a backlash from its supporters placed the Greens below the ALP this allowed then State ALP member Browyn Pike to hold on to the State Seat of Melbourne.

Without LNP preferences the the only way the Greens can hold on to the Seat of Melbourne is if ALP endorsed candidate Cath Bowtell polls third below the Greens and the Liberal Party after distribution of minor party candidates preferences. in which case Cath Bowtell's preferences will elect Adam Brandt.

LNP supporters will be conscious of this potential outcome and we will most likely see a repeat of the State By-election where LNP voters will fall behind Cath Bowtell in order to prevent the Greens from being re-elected.

All recent  polls including the Essential Research Poll are showing a Statewide drop in Greens support which lends even more to the flaws in Antony Greens Calculations. You can not apply a statewide swing overall to a specific seat such as Melbourne where the 2PP contest is not between the LNP and the ALP.

UPDATE:  It is clear that Antony Green has hard coded in the defeat of  Independent seats as shown by this scenario on his calculator


Huw Slater said...

Um, no:

democracyATwork said...

Umm Wrong again:

In 2010 30% of LNP voters broke ticket and refused to support the Liberal Party HTV preference flow to the Greens. The level breaking LNP ticket in 2013 will be less than 10% reasons are simple.

First: Those that broke ticket realized that the Greens were a worst choice and would not follow the recommendation made by the Liberal Party

Second: The Greens are incumbents and most will vote against them and stick with the Party recommendation.

The LNP dislike the Greens more than the ALP.

The only way the Greens can win Melbourne is if the ALP polls in third place or they rigg the polls by inflating their prospects

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