Saturday, May 4, 2013

Green wites off Independents

ABC Election Analyst, Antony Green, has written off independents in the forth coming election by hard-coding in their defeat in the ABC Calculator.  There is no mention or  disclaimer of this fact

In review Greens Calculator could have been much better given the amount of money and resources the ABC has thrown out at it.

It should be possible to click on any seat and either display the results of the last election or adust individually each seat. Swings are not even across the country let alone within each state.

In  Green's Calculator he could have determined the success of Independents based on the swing associated with the TCP party. 

The Greens Party chances of holding on to the seat of Melbourne depends on where the ALP falls in the final three.  In 2010 the LNP Preferenced the Greens ahead of Labor, a move that caused considerable angst and upset within the Liberal Party and a mistake that was not repeated in the following State election.  The only way the Greens can hold on to Melbourne without LNP preferences is for the ALP's vote to slump to such an extent the ALP falls behind the Greens and the the LNP into third place.   Given the make of the seat (which covers Richmond, Fitzroy, Carlton, Brunswick, Flemmington, Parkville, Docklands and North Melbourne) we do not see that a likelihood, which begs the question "Why has Green hard coded Melbourne into begin a Green Seat in his Swing Calculator?"

Antony Green has done likewise with the other independent held seats (Denison TAS, Kennedy QLD, Lyne NSW and New England NSW)

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