Sunday, May 5, 2013

Green bias in Flawed ABC Calculator Against Melbourne and Sitting Independents

There is a noticeable flaw in ABC Anthony Green's Election Calculator in that he has awarded the seat of Melbourne to the Greens based on the Essential Research quarterly state poll

The Greens only won Melbourne in 2010 because the Liberal Party at the time preferenced them ahead of the ALP. A mistake they are unlikely repeat in September.

In 2010 the State Liberal party fearing a backlash from its supporters placed the Greens below the ALP this allowed then State ALP member Browyn Pike to hold on to the State Seat of Melbourne.

Without LNP preferences the the only way the Greens can hold on to the Seat of Melbourne is if ALP endorsed candidate Cath Bowtell polls third below the Greens and the Liberal Party after distribution of minor party candidates preferences. in which case Cath Bowtell's preferences will elect Adam Brandt.

LNP supporters will be conscious of this potential outcome and we will most likely see a repeat of the State By-election where LNP voters will fall behind Cath Bowtell in order to prevent the Greens from being re-elected.

All recent  polls including the Essential Research Poll are showing a Statewide drop in Greens support which lends even more to the flaws in Antony Greens Calculations. You can not apply a statewide swing overall to a specific seat such as Melbourne where the 2PP contest is not between the LNP and the ALP.

UPDATE:  It is clear that Antony Green has hard coded in the defeat of  Independent seats as shown by this scenario on his calculator

Saturday, May 4, 2013

Green wites off Independents

ABC Election Analyst, Antony Green, has written off independents in the forth coming election by hard-coding in their defeat in the ABC Calculator.  There is no mention or  disclaimer of this fact

In review Greens Calculator could have been much better given the amount of money and resources the ABC has thrown out at it.

It should be possible to click on any seat and either display the results of the last election or adust individually each seat. Swings are not even across the country let alone within each state.

In  Green's Calculator he could have determined the success of Independents based on the swing associated with the TCP party. 

The Greens Party chances of holding on to the seat of Melbourne depends on where the ALP falls in the final three.  In 2010 the LNP Preferenced the Greens ahead of Labor, a move that caused considerable angst and upset within the Liberal Party and a mistake that was not repeated in the following State election.  The only way the Greens can hold on to Melbourne without LNP preferences is for the ALP's vote to slump to such an extent the ALP falls behind the Greens and the the LNP into third place.   Given the make of the seat (which covers Richmond, Fitzroy, Carlton, Brunswick, Flemmington, Parkville, Docklands and North Melbourne) we do not see that a likelihood, which begs the question "Why has Green hard coded Melbourne into begin a Green Seat in his Swing Calculator?"

Antony Green has done likewise with the other independent held seats (Denison TAS, Kennedy QLD, Lyne NSW and New England NSW)

Friday, May 3, 2013

Green's unauthorised use of Twitter brings ABC into disrepute

Antony Green, ABC Electoral Analysts, use of Twitter has brought the ABC into disrepute.

According Alan Sunderland, Head of Policy & Staff Development at the ABC,  Antony Green's Twitter account is not an official or authorised ABC account. As such it falls outside the parameters of the ABC charter 

The ABC has a policy on the use of social media which states that "Personal and professional use of social media by ABC staff and contractors must not bring the ABC into disrepute, compromise effectiveness at work, imply ABC endorsement of personal views or disclose, without authorisation,
confidential information"

The policy applies to all ABC workplace participants, which includes: 
all ABC employees  –  including  casual, fixed term and specified task employees, employees on probation, part-time employees, managers,  actors engaged under the  ABC  Actors  Agreement,
employees working from home as well as full-time and ongoing employees; people providing services to the ABC on a contract basis (including ABC artists) or on secondment from or to another organisation, even if they are only working at the ABC on a temporary basis;   

Interactive services, which include social media like Facebook, YouTube and Twitter, are part of the ABC’s future as a public broadcaster and increasingly part of the work  and private lives of ABC staff and contractors. 

The ABC encourages use of social media to engage existing and new audiences with ABC content, and to seek and share user‐generated content. Use of social media by staff and contractors  is not limited to the  workplace  and  occurs for  professional  or personal purposes  both  in  and  out of work hours.

Four standards apply to work and personal use of interactive services, with ABC accounts and personal accounts, by staff and contractors, at any time:
1. Do not mix the professional and the personal in ways likely to bring the ABC into disrepute.
2. Do not undermine your effectiveness at work.
3. Do not imply ABC endorsement of your personal views.
4. Do not disclose confidential information obtained through work. 

The ABC will enforce the four standards as and when appropriate.

The problem is that Mr Greens Twitter account implies that it has been authorised and endorsed by the ABC.

Unlike other ABC Staff members who also hold a twitter account Mr Green's account makes direct reference to the ABC in his twitter id and user profile  @AntonyGreenABC.  Antony Green's Twitter Account is also listed on the ABC website.

No other ABC staff members personal twitter account makes this direct implication. 

Antony Green by implying his account is endorsed or authorized by the ABC and forms part of his employment duties has and continues to bring the ABC into disrepute.  There is no disclaimer or statement of disassociation or non-endorsement. As stated by Alan Sunderland his account has not been authorised and any implication that it has is in direct breach of the ABC policy guidelines and as such falls outside the standards and guidelines of ABC.

Alan Sunderland notes "Many users include disclaimers in the profile section of their accounts making it very clear that the views contained in the twitter feed are personal, Others do not specifically reference such disclaimers, but that in and of itself is not a contravention of policy. Regardless of whether such a specific disclaimer is made, the fact is that such accounts are (a) personal, and (b) subject to the Social Media Policy"

Catch 22

Antony Green continues to use the resources of the ABC mixing his personal and professional interests.