Morgan Phone Home - Greens claim victory within their grasp in spite the Liberal Party preferencing the Greens last

Its hard to believe but believe it or not.

Gary Morgan, from Roy Morgan  research, has undertaken a phone poll in the inner City electorates of Richmond, Brunswick, Melbourne and Northcote. According to Morgan the Greens on a 2PP against the ALP could secure over 50% of the vote.  This in spite the decision to the Liberal Party to preference the greens last on their HTV cards.

Morgan's claimed Primary vote is a little beyond belief.  Morgans press release did not mentioned who commissioned the poll.  The special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted last night (Tuesday November 16, 2010) in the 4 inner Melbourne seats (Melbourne, Richmond, Brunswick, Northcote) with a cross section of 276 electors; a low 3% didn’t name a party.: November 17, 2010

Bludger Dr William Bowe says:

• Roy Morgan has exposed itself to ridicule by not only publishing a phone poll of the four Labor-versus-Greens seats from a sample of just 276, but also purporting that meaningful conclusions can be drawn from the seat-by-seat breakdowns (“Greens set to win Inner Melbourne seats of Richmond & Northcote; Vote in Brunswick & Melbourne ‘too close to call’”). The best that can be done with the poll is to combine the results and compare them with the 2006 election, which shows the Greens up 17 points on the primary vote, Labor down 16 points and the Liberals up three, with a two-party swing to the Greens of 8 per cent – and even then a margin of error approaching 6 per cent must be taken into account. For what very little it’s worth, a uniform 8 per cent swing would deliver the Greens Melbourne, Richmond and Brunswick, but not quite Northcote. We aren’t told how preferences were allocated, but clearly it wasn’t on the basis of the last election – the Greens’ preference share has gone from 74 per cent to 41 per cent.

Greens set to win Inner Melbourne seats of Richmond & Northcote
Vote in Brunswick & Melbourne ‘too close to call’

The Greens are in a winning position in the Victorian State seats of Richmond and  Northcote; while its ‘too close to call’ in Brunswick and Melbourne, a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted last night (Tuesday, November 17, 2010) shows.

Two Party preferred vote in the four seats surveyed was:

Richmond — Greens  61% vs ALP 39%

Northcote — Greens 54% vs ALP 46%

Brunswick — Greens 51.5% vs ALP 48.5%

Melbourne — ALP 51% vs Greens 49%.

The Greens obtained a significant vote before preferences — in Richmond (50%), Northcote (50.5%) and Brunswick (41.5%); while in Melbourne the vote is divided fairly evenly across the three major parties.

Gary Morgan says:

“Despite the Liberal Party decision on the weekend to preference Labor ahead of the Greens across Victoria, the Greens look set to do particularly well in the Inner Melbourne seats they have been targeting since the last Victorian State election — Victoria seems to be heading for a Hung Parliament.”

Full Tables & Details: http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2010/4601

MELBOURNE

Primary Vote

	Victorian State Election Nov 25, 2006	Nov 16, 2010	Swing since 2006 Election
	%	%	%
ALP	44.5	35	-9.5
LIB	22	31	+9
Greens	27.5	34	+6.5
Other	6	0	-6
TOTAL	100	100

Two-Party Preferred Vote

	Victorian State Election Nov 25, 2006	Nov 16, 2010	Swing since 2006 Election
	%	%	%
ALP	52	51	-1
Greens	48	49	+1
TOTAL	100	100

BRUNSWICK, NORTHCOTE & RICHMOND

Primary Vote

	Victorian State Election Nov 25, 2006	Nov 16, 2010	Swing since 2006 Election
	%	%	%
ALP	50.5	31	-19.5
LIB	17.5	19	+1.5
Greens	26	47.5	+21.5
Other	6	2.5	-3.5
TOTAL	100	100

Two-Party Preferred Vote

	Victorian State Election Nov 25, 2006	Nov 16, 2010	Swing since 2006 Election
	%	%	%
ALP	56.5	44.5	-12
Greens	43.5	55.5	+12
TOTAL	100	100

RICHMOND

Primary Vote

	Victorian State Election Nov 25, 2006	Nov 16, 2010	Swing since 2006 Election
	%	%	%
ALP	46.5	25.5	-21
LIB	20	20.5	+0.5
Greens	24.5	50	+25.5
Other	9	4	-5
TOTAL	100	100

Two-Party Preferred Vote

	Victorian State Election Nov 25, 2006	Nov 16, 2010	Swing since 2006 Election
	%	%	%
ALP	53.5	39	-14.5
Greens	46.5	61	+14.5
TOTAL	100	100

NORTHCOTE

Primary Vote

	Victorian State Election Nov 25, 2006	Nov 16, 2010	Swing since 2006 Election
	%	%	%
ALP	52.5	34	-18.5
LIB	15.5	13.5	-2
Greens	27.5	50.5	+23
Other	4.5	2	-2.5
TOTAL	100	100

Two-Party Preferred Vote

	Victorian State Election Nov 25, 2006	Nov 16, 2010	Swing since 2006 Election
	%	%	%
ALP	58.5	46	-12.5
Greens	41.5	54	+12.5
TOTAL	100	100

BRUNSWICK

Primary Vote

	Victorian State Election Nov 25, 2006	Nov 16, 2010	Swing since 2006 Election
	%	%	%
ALP	48	34	-14
LIB	17.5	23	+5.5
Greens	29.5	41.5	+12
Other	5	1.5	-3.5
TOTAL	100	100

Two-Party Preferred Vote

	Victorian State Election Nov 25, 2006	Nov 16, 2010	Swing since 2006 Election
	%	%	%
ALP	53.5	48.5	-5
Greens	46.5	51.5	+5
TOTAL	100	100