Morgan Phone Poll: LNP 51% to Labor 49%

Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu’s Liberal-National Coalition is set win a close Victorian State Election with the L-NP (51%, up 3.5% in a week) leading the ALP (49%, down 3.5%) on a Two-Party preferred basis according to a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last four nights in Victoria, November 22-25, 2010.

Source Morgan Poll

Despite the L-NP now leading the Two-Party preferred vote, the clear majority of electors (61%) still think the ALP ‘will win’ tomorrow’s election compared to just 21% who expect the L-NP to win the election.

Primary support has risen for the L-NP 44.5% (up 3% from November 16-18, 2010, and up 4.9% from the 2006 Victorian State Election), ALP support has collapsed to 35.5% (down 3.5% from November 16-18, 2010 and down 7.6% from the 2006 Election), the Greens 13% (down 2.5%, but up 3% from the 2006 Election), Family First 1.5% (unchanged, but down 2.8% from the 2006 Election) and Independents/Other 5.5% (up 3%).