Saturday, December 18, 2010

Northern Victoria: The flaw in the system ignored in Antony Green's analysis

What Antony Green's analysis fails to take into consideration is that the ALP ticket vote is inflated in value by 1117 votes as a result of the flawed method used by the VEC in calculating the Surplus Transfer Value and the Greens vote is devalued by 1134 votes.

This in turn inflates Country Alliances vote at the end of the count making it that much closer then it actually is. the other flaw in the counting system is the method of segmentation.

There is no logic in segmenting the count in distributing excluded candidates preferences. All preferences should be distributed in a single transaction.

The system of segmentation was designed to facilitate a manual count and limit the effect of the distortion in the method of calculating the Surplus Transfer value. Both processors are wrong and flawed.

In Queensland 2007Senate election Larissa Waters was denied representation as a result of the system of segmentation.

If we are to have an accurate and fair electoral system we will need to correct these flaws and introduce a reiterative counting system that minimises the distortion inn the count whilst better reflecting the voters intention.

In Antony Green's breakdown analysis of Northern Victoria Green failed to take into account the distortion in the way in which the Victorian Legislative Council is counted.  Concealed within Green's data is the number of ballot papers and their value attributed to the ALPs second candidate.  As a result of the method used in calculating the Surplus Transfer Value the ALP ticket vote actually increases in value at the expense of the Greens and other minor candidates full value votes


Vote source Papers Papers % Value Sum Value %
ALP #1 104659 77.23% 0.3805 39825 56.41%
ALP (BTL) 749 0.55% 1.0000 749 1.06%
CA 13 0.01% 1.0000 13 0.02%
CDP 26 0.02% 1.0000 26 0.04%
DLP 72 0.05% 1.0000 72 0.10%
FF 63 0.05% 1.0000 63 0.09%
GRN 29548 21.80% 1.0000 29548 41.85%
LNP #1 46 0.03% 0.6560 30 0.04%
LNP #2 96 0.07% 0.3146 30 0.04%
LNP (BTL) 33 0.02% 1.0000 33 0.05%
SEX 212 0.16% 1.0000 212 0.30%







sum 135517 100%
70601 100%
Quota


64946

Surplus


5655 0.0417282







Vote source Ballot Papers
Paper Based STV Value Based STV % Diff
ALP #1 104659 77.23% 4367 3190 56.41% 1177
ALP (BTL) 749 0.55% 31 60 1.06% -29
CA 13 0.01% 1 1 0.02% 0
CDP 26 0.02% 1 2 0.04% -1
DLP 72 0.05% 3 6 0.10% -3
FF 63 0.05% 3 5 0.09% -2
GRN 29548 21.80% 1233 2367 41.85% -1134
LNP #1 46 0.07% 4 2 0.04% 2
LNP #2 96 0.03% 2 2 0.04% 0
LNP (BTL) 33 0.02% 1 3 0.05% -1
SEX 212 0.16% 9 17 0.30% -8







sum 135517 100.00% 5655 5655 100.00%

Instead of winning by a margin of 3,532 votes (in a value based count) the VEC paper based formula gives the Liberal Party a reduced margin of 1,407 votes. An overall devaluation of an equivilent 2,125 votes

The following table highlights in more detail the extent of distortion in the method used to calculate the Surplus Transfer Value by showing a breakdown comparison of the count at the point where the ALP  second candidate is elected and the value of the vote following the distribution of the ALP surplus. The first data set shows the number of ballot papers, the second the reuslkts of the VEC paper based formula and the third the results using a weighted value based formula.

Total No. of formal Ballot Papers 389673
Quota 64946

No of Ballot Papers





ID Candidate Group Primary ALP CA LNP <>
1 THRELFALL, Steven CA 26496
26496

2 GAYLARD, Frank CA 150 13 88 18 31
3 McDONALD, Ewan CDP 2463 18 139 2229 77
4 FLANAGAN, Steve CDP 90 8 29 23 30
5 WINTLE, Laurie FF 11277 52 10968 168 89
6 HUNTER, Neville FF 167 11 80 27 49
7 JONES, David GRN 30142 29103 214 203 622
8 ROBINSON, Helen GRN 368 164 41 33 130
9 PAAS, Hans GRN 187 73 18 25 71
10 TOLL, Kate GRN 304 121 26 33 124
11 ROBERTSON, Ben GRN 198 87 16 16 79
12 LOVELL, Wendy LNP 188787 68 333 188291 95
13 DRUM, Damian LNP 1175 74 224 742 135
14 PETROVICH, Donna LNP 371

371
15 MATHER, Reid LNP 235 27 46 142 20
16 IRELAND, Martin LNP 326 6 44 246 30
17 BROAD, Candy ALP 104839 104659 74 29 77
18 DARVENIZA, Kaye ALP 361 361


19 BYRON, Jamie ALP 207 149 9 13 36
20 ROSAIA, Shaun ALP 212 137 23 11 41
21 SHERIDAN, Anthony ALP 146 102 10 12 22
22 CHELLEW, Tristram SEX 14741 173 14334 104 130
23 ARFARAS, Justine SEX 139 39 38 28 34
24 ROYAL, Mark DLP 6204 48 5985 108 63
25 CARTY, John DLP 88 24 23 19 22

Sum
389673 135517 59258 192891 2007
Paper based count





ID Candidate Group Primary ALP CA LNP <>
1 THRELFALL, Steven CA 26496
26496.0000

2 GAYLARD, Frank CA 150 13.0000 88.0000 18.0000 31.0000
3 McDONALD, Ewan CDP 2463 18.0000 139.0000 2229.0000 77.0000
4 FLANAGAN, Steve CDP 90 8.0000 29.0000 23.0000 30.0000
5 WINTLE, Laurie FF 11277 52.0000 10968.0000 168.0000 89.0000
6 HUNTER, Neville FF 167 11.0000 80.0000 27.0000 49.0000
7 JONES, David GRN 30142 29103.0000 214.0000 203.0000 622.0000
8 ROBINSON, Helen GRN 368 164.0000 41.0000 33.0000 130.0000
9 PAAS, Hans GRN 187 73.0000 18.0000 25.0000 71.0000
10 TOLL, Kate GRN 304 121.0000 26.0000 33.0000 124.0000
11 ROBERTSON, Ben GRN 198 87.0000 16.0000 16.0000 79.0000
12 LOVELL, Wendy LNP 188787 37.0966 195.2288 59412.8593 55.1495
13 DRUM, Damian LNP 1175 23.2811 70.4725 233.4400 42.4722
14 PETROVICH, Donna LNP 371

371.0000
15 MATHER, Reid LNP 235 27.0000 46.0000 142.0000 20.0000
16 IRELAND, Martin LNP 326 6.0000 44.0000 246.0000 30.0000
17 BROAD, Candy ALP 104839 39824.5070 28.1582 11.0350 29.2998
18 DARVENIZA, Kaye ALP 361 361.0000


19 BYRON, Jamie ALP 207 149.0000 9.0000 13.0000 36.0000
20 ROSAIA, Shaun ALP 212 137.0000 23.0000 11.0000 41.0000
21 SHERIDAN, Anthony ALP 146 102.0000 10.0000 12.0000 22.0000
22 CHELLEW, Tristram SEX 14741 173.0000 14334.0000 104.0000 130.0000
23 ARFARAS, Justine SEX 139 39.0000 38.0000 28.0000 34.0000
24 ROYAL, Mark DLP 6204 48.0000 5985.0000 108.0000 63.0000
25 CARTY, John DLP 88 24.0000 23.0000 19.0000 22.0000

Sum
389673 70600.88 58920.86 63486.33 1826.922
Value based count





ID candidate Group Primary ALP CA LNP <>
1 THRELFALL, Steven CA 26496
26496.0000

2 GAYLARD, Frank CA 150 13.0000 88.0000 18.0000 31.0000
3 McDONALD, Ewan CDP 2463 18.0000 139.0000 2229.0000 77.0000
4 FLANAGAN, Steve CDP 90 8.0000 29.0000 23.0000 30.0000
5 WINTLE, Laurie FF 11277 52.0000 10968.0000 168.0000 89.0000
6 HUNTER, Neville FF 167 11.0000 80.0000 27.0000 49.0000
7 JONES, David GRN 30142 29103.0000 214.0000 203.0000 622.0000
8 ROBINSON, Helen GRN 368 164.0000 41.0000 33.0000 130.0000
9 PAAS, Hans GRN 187 73.0000 18.0000 25.0000 71.0000
10 TOLL, Kate GRN 304 121.0000 26.0000 33.0000 124.0000
11 ROBERTSON, Ben GRN 198 87.0000 16.0000 16.0000 79.0000
12 LOVELL, Wendy LNP 188787 37.0741 195.1593 59220.9394 55.1280
13 DRUM, Damian LNP 1175 35.3751 107.0814 354.7070 64.5356
14 PETROVICH, Donna LNP 371

371.0000
15 MATHER, Reid LNP 235 27.0000 46.0000 142.0000 20.0000
16 IRELAND, Martin LNP 326 6.0000 44.0000 246.0000 30.0000
17 BROAD, Candy ALP 104839 39824.5070 28.1582 11.0350 29.2998
18 DARVENIZA, Kaye ALP 361 361.0000


19 BYRON, Jamie ALP 207 149.0000 9.0000 13.0000 36.0000
20 ROSAIA, Shaun ALP 212 137.0000 23.0000 11.0000 41.0000
21 SHERIDAN, Anthony ALP 146 102.0000 10.0000 12.0000 22.0000
22 CHELLEW, Tristram SEX 14741 173.0000 14334.0000 104.0000 130.0000
23 ARFARAS, Justine SEX 139 39.0000 38.0000 28.0000 34.0000
24 ROYAL, Mark DLP 6204 48.0000 5985.0000 108.0000 63.0000
25 CARTY, John DLP 88 24.0000 23.0000 19.0000 22.0000

Sum
389673 70612.95 58957.39 63415.68 1848.963
Distribution of Labor's Surplus




No of Ballot Papers





ID Candidate Group Primary
CA LNP <>
1 THRELFALL, Steven CA 26496
26496

2 GAYLARD, Frank CA 150
90 19 41
3 McDONALD, Ewan CDP 2463
144 2235 84
4 FLANAGAN, Steve CDP 90
30 25 35
5 WINTLE, Laurie FF 11277
10984 178 115
6 HUNTER, Neville FF 167
84 27 56
7 JONES, David GRN 30142
559 28555 1028
8 ROBINSON, Helen GRN 368
91 86 191
9 PAAS, Hans GRN 187
44 44 99
10 TOLL, Kate GRN 304
61 68 175
11 ROBERTSON, Ben GRN 198
46 48 104
12 LOVELL, Wendy LNP 188787
345 188316 126
13 DRUM, Damian LNP 1175
236 770 169
14 PETROVICH, Donna LNP 371

371
15 MATHER, Reid LNP 235
48 149 38
16 IRELAND, Martin LNP 326
46 246 34
17 BROAD, Candy ALP 104839
103895 264 680
18 DARVENIZA, Kaye ALP 361
114 37 210
19 BYRON, Jamie ALP 207
46 26 135
20 ROSAIA, Shaun ALP 212
56 26 130
21 SHERIDAN, Anthony ALP 146
33 31 82
22 CHELLEW, Tristram SEX 14741
14394 158 189
23 ARFARAS, Justine SEX 139
53 42 44
24 ROYAL, Mark DLP 6204
5996 118 90
25 CARTY, John DLP 88
29 24 35

Sum
389673
163920 221863 3890
Paper based count





ID Candidate Group Primary
CA LNP <>
1 THRELFALL, Steven CA 26496
26496.0000

2 GAYLARD, Frank CA 150
88.0835 18.0417 31.4173
3 McDONALD, Ewan CDP 2463
139.2086 2229.2504 77.2921
4 FLANAGAN, Steve CDP 90
29.0417 23.0835 30.2086
5 WINTLE, Laurie FF 11277
10968.6677 168.4173 90.0849
6 HUNTER, Neville FF 167
80.1669 27.0000 49.2921
7 JONES, David GRN 30142
228.3962 1386.0788 638.9417
8 ROBINSON, Helen GRN 368
43.0864 35.2116 132.5454
9 PAAS, Hans GRN 187
19.0849 25.7928 72.1684
10 TOLL, Kate GRN 304
27.4605 34.4605 126.1281
11 ROBERTSON, Ben GRN 198
17.2518 17.3353 80.0432
12 LOVELL, Wendy LNP 188787
195.7296 59413.9025 56.4431
13 DRUM, Damian LNP 1175
70.9732 234.6084 43.8910
14 PETROVICH, Donna LNP 371

371.0000
15 MATHER, Reid LNP 235
46.0835 142.2921 20.7511
16 IRELAND, Martin LNP 326
44.0835 246.0000 30.1669
17 BROAD, Candy ALP 104839
4360.4249 20.8411 54.4619
18 DARVENIZA, Kaye ALP 361
4.7570 1.5439 8.7629
19 BYRON, Jamie ALP 207
10.5439 13.5425 40.1311
20 ROSAIA, Shaun ALP 212
24.3770 11.6259 44.7138
21 SHERIDAN, Anthony ALP 146
10.9597 12.7928 24.5037
22 CHELLEW, Tristram SEX 14741
14336.5037 106.2533 132.4620
23 ARFARAS, Justine SEX 139
38.6259 28.5842 34.4173
24 ROYAL, Mark DLP 6204
5985.4590 108.4173 64.1267
25 CARTY, John DLP 88
23.2504 19.2086 22.5425

Sum
389673
63288.22 64695.28 1905.50
Value based count





ID candidate Group Primary
CA LNP <>
1 THRELFALL, Steven CA 26496
26496.0000

2 GAYLARD, Frank CA 150
88.1605 18.0803 31.8025
3 McDONALD, Ewan CDP 2463
139.4013 2229.4815 77.5618
4 FLANAGAN, Steve CDP 90
29.0803 23.1605 30.4013
5 WINTLE, Laurie FF 11277
10969.2841 168.8025 91.0866
6 HUNTER, Neville FF 167
80.3210 27.0000 49.5618
7 JONES, David GRN 30142
241.6876 2478.3550 654.5830
8 ROBINSON, Helen GRN 368
45.0127 37.2534 134.8955
9 PAAS, Hans GRN 187
20.0866 26.5248 73.2471
10 TOLL, Kate GRN 304
28.8089 35.8089 128.0929
11 ROBERTSON, Ben GRN 198
18.4076 18.5681 81.0063
12 LOVELL, Wendy LNP 188787
195.7911 59222.0082 56.4028
13 DRUM, Damian LNP 1175
107.5417 355.7812 65.8400
14 PETROVICH, Donna LNP 371

371.0000
15 MATHER, Reid LNP 235
46.1605 142.5618 21.4446
16 IRELAND, Martin LNP 326
44.1605 246.0000 30.3210
17 BROAD, Candy ALP 104839
3198.6344 18.2114 47.7142
18 DARVENIZA, Kaye ALP 361
9.1489 2.9694 16.8533
19 BYRON, Jamie ALP 207
11.9694 14.0433 43.9451
20 ROSAIA, Shaun ALP 212
25.6484 12.2038 48.1426
21 SHERIDAN, Anthony ALP 146
11.8458 13.5248 26.8152
22 CHELLEW, Tristram SEX 14741
14338.8152 108.3337 134.7350
23 ARFARAS, Justine SEX 139
39.2038 29.1236 34.8025
24 ROYAL, Mark DLP 6204
5985.8828 108.8025 65.1669
25 CARTY, John DLP 88
23.4815 19.4013 23.0433

Sum
389673
62194.53 65727.00 1967.465

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