Assessing Electoral Fraud in New Democracies

Steve Tully's refusal to provide copies of the below-the-line preference data files to scrutineers and his failure to publish this information had prevented scrutineers from properly scrutinising the Victorian Legilsative Council election.  

There is no excuse or reason why this information was not made available. Similar complaints and concerns had been made about the Victoria's previous state and municipal elections.  

In 2006 The Victorian Electoral Commission refused to publish copies of the preference data-files. When the commission was asked for copies of the data-files by the Victorian Parliamentary Electoral Matters Commission, Steve Tully said that the data files pertaining to the primary count A for Western Metropolitan had been deleted. overwritten and that there were no backup copies available. The Commission failed to ensure that this data was protected and copies available in spite the fact that this information had been requested prior to the conduct of the count. 

The Chief Electoral Commissioner has demonstrated for a second election in a row that he is incapable of self regulating or ensuring that our electoral process in Victoria is open and transparent. 

Parliament must now act to ensure the integrity of the electronic counting system is maintained and that scrutineers have access to this crucial data in real time. 

There are no technical or procedural reasons why this data cannot be made available and published on line as and when it is recorded.  In the same way that polling place results are published on line as the count progresses. 

The International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) has just published a white paper on which it addresses some of the growing concerns about about fraud in electronic elections.  One of the issues raised is the need to ensure that the election process is open and transparent and that the tallies of electronic counting systems are subject to proper scrutiny and audit by political parties and the need for publication of elections results to be progressively made available during the count.

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Assessing Electoral Fraud in New Democracies:
A Basic Conceptual Framework

By Rafael López-Pintor
December 2010
As the topic of electoral fraud has gained prominence in the media and the international discourse, IFES is releasing a series of three white papers introducing a groundbreaking framework for deterring this corrosive practice.
Assessing Electoral Fraud in New Democracies: A Basic Conceptual Framework, the first paper in the series:

• discusses the importance of focusing on fraud in new democracies;
• provides a definition for fraud (as opposed to corruption or malpractice);
• sheds light on the different agents who can perpetrate fraud and why it can be difficult to identify them; and
• assesses how international democratic standards intersect with the prevention of electoral fraud

A PDF of the White Paper can be accessed here.

Western Metro: BTL Vote Stats

Table showing primary vote and distribution party of second preference

ID	Candidate	Primary	SEX	ALP	FF	DLP	GRN	LIB
1	MURRAY, Joël	1378	881	306	63	28	82	18
2	DAVIS, Merinda	536	277	127	44	15	42	31
3	PAKULA, Martin	2686	109	2073	169	132	157	46
4	EIDEH, Khalil	679	27	503	53	59	23	14
5	SMITH, Bob	557	23	443	37	29	19	6
6	REES, Llewellyn	723	17	551	25	29	72	29
7	SPINNER, Claudine	652	11	499	39	29	62	12
8	MUMBY, Daniel	635	24	65	410	63	37	36
9	GARAY, Lisa	142	6	31	59	21	16	9
10	FARRELL, Mark	631	23	38	39	458	49	24
11	MAZZARELLA, Stephanie	274	7	28	21	179	26	13
12	BYRNE, Georga	121	4	14	7	76	17	3
13	NOTARO, Samuel	89	1	4	4	64	7	9
14	KAVANAGH, Marguerita	113	3	13	3	79	10	5
15	HARTLAND, Colleen	3439	99	272	30	62	2883	93
16	HUMPHREYS, Robert Allan	428	21	39	5	28	312	23
17	INGHAM, Liz	595	23	49	10	22	478	13
18	CRAWFORD, Simon	199	8	12	3	10	155	11
19	GALE, Owen	205	4	12	11	9	161	8
20	FINN, Bernie	2051	38	56	82	79	115	1681
21	ELSBURY, Andrew	386	9	14	16	13	18	316
22	FAIRBAIRN, Victoria	603	12	20	26	20	65	460
23	BARTH, Jeremy	269	11	4	15	7	27	205
24	KENNY, William	309	9	9	9	10	15	257

Table showing number of ballot papers from each primary vote distributed to last remaining party candidates

ID	Candidate	Primary	SEX	ALP	FF	DLP	GRN	LIB	Exhaust
1	MURRAY, Joël	1378	1378
2	DAVIS, Merinda	536	308	45	58	10	36	25	54
3	PAKULA, Martin	2686	127	1958	155	135	204	31	76
4	EIDEH, Khalil	679	27	473	43	29	27	18	62
5	SMITH, Bob	557		557
6	REES, Llewellyn	723	32	471	39	17	111	17	36
7	SPINNER, Claudine	652	19	457	40	16	78	6	36
8	MUMBY, Daniel	635			635
9	GARAY, Lisa	142	10	16	65	16	10	10	15
10	FARRELL, Mark	631				631
11	MAZZARELLA, Stephanie	274	7	12	28	148	23	12	44
12	BYRNE, Georga	121	3	7	12	69	16	2	12
13	NOTARO, Samuel	89	3	9	6	47	8	5	11
14	KAVANAGH, Marguerita	113	8	7	5	69	11	6	7
15	HARTLAND, Colleen	3439					3439
16	HUMPHREYS, Robert Allan	428	26	21	13	10	314	14	30
17	INGHAM, Liz	595	31	14	18	8	493	8	23
18	CRAWFORD, Simon	199	17	12	14	4	127	13	12
19	GALE, Owen	205	13	9	16	7	144	8	8
20	FINN, Bernie	2051	44	18	101	67	101	1676	44
21	ELSBURY, Andrew	386						386
22	FAIRBAIRN, Victoria	603	26	9	42	9	37	438	42
23	BARTH, Jeremy	269	15	7	25	5	12	196	9
24	KENNY, William	309	10	7	16	9	5	250	12

Over 940 data inconsitencies in VEC Western Metro Count

In review and comparison of the two BTL preference data files (Count A and Count B) provided by the Victorian Electoral Commission shows that over 1,000 votes were incorrectly recorded with a disconcerning number being mistches in the batch reference id which indicates poor data management.

There were 15 records added to count B that were not included in Count A

Western-Metro-BTL-2010-B.batch_id
0548-001
0549-001
0549-002
0549-003
0550-001
0551-001
0551-002
0551-003
0551-004
0552-001
0553-001
0554-001
0555-001
0556-001
0557-001

and 8 records in Count A that were not in Count B

Western-Metro-BTL-2010-A.batch_id
0017-050
0026-050
0043-050
0132-048
0144-002
0341-049
0361-049
0426-049

Preliminary Analysis shows that the ALP fell short by one percent of the quota.

In a good example that demonstrates the distortion in the way the VEC counts the vote Preliminary analysis of Western Metropolitan vote shows that had a more accurate and proportional counting system been used Greens candidate Colleen Hartland would have won the seat with three votes above quota and the ALP falling short by one percent of quote just over 700 votes.

This is a stark contrast with the method used by the Victorian Electoral Commission as outlined in the legislation which at best can only be described as semi-proportional.

In our analysis we used the Wright system which included a weighted value method to calculating the surplus transfer value and on every exclusion the ballot was reset and the count restarted and votes redistributed as if the excluded candidates had not nominated. The quota for election was adjusted to accommodate votes that existed throughout the count. The Weight system uses a single transaction without segmentation and only surplus votes are distributed in a single iteration of the count. The process of iteration continues until all vacant positions are elected. ION analysis of Western Metro the vote progressed until there were only six candidates remaining in the final iteration count.

Similar results were shown using the Meek method of counting.

what this demonstrates yet again the need for the state government to abandon the outdated distorted and accurate system currently in use. Had the number of voters not exhausted their ballot papers or Victoria had retained a full preferential voting system the outcome of the election may have been different.

In 2007 the Queensland Senate election which uses the same flawed system of segmentation as exists in Victoria Greens candidate Larissa Waters missed out in being elected. Had a reiterative counting system been used instead Larissa Waters would have been elected.

The current system was designed to facilitate a manual count and with the use of computer based technology is no longer warranted or justified.

Wright System Reiterative Count - Value based Surplus Transfer - Single transaction per candidate Final Iteration  422588 Ballot papers minus 1205 ballots which exhausted with-out value expressing no preference for any continuing candidate
ID	Candidate	Group	01-001 Primary	01-002 Surplus PAKULA, Martin	01-003 Surplus FINN, Bernie	01-004 Surplus EIDEH, Khalil	01-005 Surplus ELSBURY, Andrew	01-006 Elected HARTLAND, Colleen
3	PAKULA, Martin	ALP	196632	70229	70229	70229	70229	70229
4	EIDEH, Khalil	ALP	1242	126653	126653	70229	70229	70229
5	SMITH, Bob	ALP	1411	1736	1761	57929	69419	69419
15	HARTLAND, Colleen	GREENS	69582	69987	70124	70181	70237	70237
20	FINN, Bernie	LIBERAL	151299	151299	70229	70229	70229	70229
21	ELSBURY, Andrew	LIBERAL	1217	1250	82015	82015	70229	70229
	Sum		421383	421154	421011	420812	420572	420572
	Quota		70229
	Exhausted	with value		229	372	571	811	811

Western Metro Greens Hartland elected on below quota vote VEC instructions and optional voting rules under review

The Greens have been elected to the last position in Western Metropolitan Region with 130 votes less than the quota required.

The Australian Labor Party and former Legislative Council President, Bob Smith, more than 2,000 votes behind the Greens' Colleen Hartland primarily due to the optional preferential rules.

Many Liberal Party and DLP supporters who were opposed to the Greens candidature exhausted their preference allocation and in doing so allowed the Greens to be elected by default.

The VEC has also come under criticism for not providing clear instruction to encourage others to fill in all preferences. The instructions on the ballot legislative Council papers encouraged voters to only preference on to 5. The VEC should have been more proactive in encouraging voters to maximise their vote by fulling in all preferences. As a result of the VEC failure many voters were disenfranchised as a result.

As a result of the optional preferential rules that were introduced for the first time this year Labor has lost a third seat in Western Metropolitan.

The conduct of the count was further marred by the fact that the VEC failed to provide scrutineers copies of the below-the-line preference data. Copies of the preference data should have been published on line and in real time as the vote is counted.

Election Night: Antony Green comes out and blames the VEC for data outage

Election night stuff-ups.  Data missing - Voters kept in the dark- Then problem is later discovered to be another ABC stuff up.  Last tally room - Green says.  But Antony Green remains silent as the VEC refuses to publish below the line data as the count progresses.

It shows you what can happen when information is not available and voters are left out in the dark.

Why our electoral system needs to be open and transparent and why data needs to be published live and in real time.

Watch the exciting stuff-up here

Tully's Tally: The night before the button is pressed

Tally of total votes per region as reported at 4:00PM Monday 13, 2010

Comparison Table		Council	Assembly
Region	Difference	Total	Total
Eastern Metropolitan Region	129	401081	401210
Eastern Victoria Region	143	428752	428895
Northern Metropolitan Region	-3	413270	413267
Northern Victoria Region	-20	400898	400878
South Eastern Metropolitan Region	312	411685	411997
Southern Metropolitan Region	184	391440	391624
Western Metropolitan Region	42	443268	443310
Western Victoria Region	212	438472	438684