Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Preliminary Analysis shows that the ALP fell short by one percent of the quota.

In a good example that demonstrates the distortion in the way the VEC counts the vote Preliminary analysis of Western Metropolitan vote shows that had a more accurate and proportional counting system been used Greens candidate Colleen Hartland would have won the seat with three votes above quota and the ALP falling short by one percent of quote just over 700 votes.

This is a stark contrast with the method used by the Victorian Electoral Commission as outlined in the legislation which at best can only be described as semi-proportional.

In our analysis we used the Wright system which included a weighted value method to calculating the surplus transfer value and on every exclusion the ballot was reset and the count restarted and votes redistributed as if the excluded candidates had not nominated. The quota for election was adjusted to accommodate votes that existed throughout the count. The Weight system uses a single transaction without segmentation and only surplus votes are distributed in a single iteration of the count. The process of iteration continues until all vacant positions are elected. ION analysis of Western Metro the vote progressed until there were only six candidates remaining in the final iteration count.

Similar results were shown using the Meek method of counting.

what this demonstrates yet again the need for the state government to abandon the outdated distorted and accurate system currently in use. Had the number of voters not exhausted their ballot papers or Victoria had retained a full preferential voting system the outcome of the election may have been different.

In 2007 the Queensland Senate election which uses the same flawed system of segmentation as exists in Victoria Greens candidate Larissa Waters missed out in being elected. Had a reiterative counting system been used instead Larissa Waters would have been elected.

The current system was designed to facilitate a manual count and with the use of computer based technology is no longer warranted or justified.



Wright System

Reiterative Count - Value based Surplus Transfer - Single transaction per candidate

Final Iteration 

422588 Ballot papers minus 1205 ballots which exhausted with-out value expressing no preference for any continuing candidate
















ID Candidate Group 01-001 Primary 01-002 Surplus PAKULA, Martin 01-003 Surplus FINN, Bernie 01-004 Surplus EIDEH, Khalil 01-005 Surplus ELSBURY, Andrew 01-006 Elected HARTLAND, Colleen
3 PAKULA, Martin  ALP 196632 70229 70229 70229 70229 70229
4 EIDEH, Khalil ALP 1242 126653 126653 70229 70229 70229
5 SMITH, Bob ALP 1411 1736 1761 57929 69419 69419
15 HARTLAND, Colleen GREENS 69582 69987 70124 70181 70237 70237
20 FINN, Bernie LIBERAL 151299 151299 70229 70229 70229 70229
21 ELSBURY, Andrew LIBERAL 1217 1250 82015 82015 70229 70229

Sum
421383 421154 421011 420812 420572 420572

Quota
70229





Exhausted with value

229 372 571 811 811




Meek Method

Note: To look at this count sheet properly you will need to copy the text below and past it in a word document and apply a fixed width font such as courier and adjust the margins so there is no word wrapping into the next line. Sorry this is a limitation of the blogger ccs.

Loading ballots from file Western-Metro-2010.blt.
Ballot file contains 24 candidates and 422588 ballots.
No candidates have withdrawn.
Ballot file contains 422588 non-empty ballots.

Counting votes for Western Metro - Victorian State Election 2010 using Meek STV.
24 candidates running for 5 seats.

R|MURRAY, Joël |DAVIS, Merind|PAKULA, Marti|EIDEH, Khalil|SMITH, Bob |REES, Llewell|SPINNER, Clau
| |a |n | | |y |dine
|-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------
|MUMBY, Daniel|GARAY, Lisa |FARRELL, Mark|MAZZARELLA, S|BYRNE, Georga|NOTARO, Samue|KAVANAGH, Mar
| | | |tephanie | |l |guerita
|-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------
|HARTLAND, Col|HUMPHREYS, Ro|INGHAM, Liz |CRAWFORD, Sim|GALE, Owen |FINN, Bernie |ELSBURY, Andr
|leen |bert Allan | |on | | |ew
|-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+-------------
|FAIRBAIRN, Vi|BARTH, Jeremy|KENNY, Willia|Exhausted |Surplus |Threshold
|ctoria | |m | | |
====================================================================================================
1| 19466.000000| 536.000000|195460.000000| 679.000000| 557.000000| 723.000000| 652.000000
| 15099.000000| 142.000000| 12728.000000| 274.000000| 121.000000| 89.000000| 113.000000
| 49274.000000| 428.000000| 595.000000| 199.000000| 205.000000|123681.000000| 386.000000
| 603.000000| 269.000000| 309.000000| 0.000000|178278.333332| 70431.333334
|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Count of first choices. Candidates PAKULA, Martin and FINN, Bernie have reached the threshold
| and are elected.
====================================================================================================
2| 19539.142196| 551.144791| 70437.675599|125003.778939| 712.934926| 819.404578| 720.940758
| 15210.009257| 177.427470| 12811.293947| 296.151689| 130.176699| 93.489935| 117.293106
| 49391.585615| 447.396208| 605.248904| 204.129598| 206.709866| 70444.859972| 53366.467289
| 678.506449| 292.290849| 329.941320| 0.000040| 54592.314529| 70431.333327
|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Count after transferring surplus votes. Keep factors of candidates who have exceeded the
| threshold: PAKULA, Martin, 0.360337 and FINN, Bernie, 0.569460. Candidate EIDEH, Khalil has
| reached the threshold and is elected.
====================================================================================================
3| 19548.732248| 557.101086| 70460.993718| 70434.884030| 55044.895210| 893.065752| 759.442245
| 15223.916901| 192.355217| 12819.734715| 308.216272| 139.061334| 95.515955| 118.009768
| 49398.959931| 452.699278| 606.590909| 205.439815| 208.735572| 70434.229766| 53382.949320
| 679.149790| 293.357508| 329.946636| 0.017024| 36.116023| 70431.330497
|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Count after transferring surplus votes. Keep factors of candidates who have exceeded the
| threshold: PAKULA, Martin, 0.360305; EIDEH, Khalil, 0.563434; and FINN, Bernie, 0.569351.
====================================================================================================
4| 20073.493588| | 70641.941887| 70767.587055| 56040.288563| |
| 15621.962278| | 13269.763240| | | |
| 50829.326051| | | | | 70704.276967| 54311.656968
| | | | 327.703403| 983.657609| 70376.716100
|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Count after eliminating DAVIS, Merinda; REES, Llewelly; SPINNER, Claudine; GARAY, Lisa;
| MAZZARELLA, Stephanie; BYRNE, Georga; NOTARO, Samuel; KAVANAGH, Marguerita; HUMPHREYS, Robert
| Allan; INGHAM, Liz; CRAWFORD, Simon; GALE, Owen; FAIRBAIRN, Victoria; BARTH, Jeremy; and KENNY,
| William and transferring votes. All losing candidates are eliminated.
====================================================================================================
5| | | 70931.799362| 71024.427228| 56467.149533| |
| | | | | | |
| 70116.049917| | | | | 86195.861938| 66180.237107
| | | | 1672.474915| 17694.325983| 70152.587515
|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Count after eliminating MURRAY, Joël; MUMBY, Daniel; and FARRELL, Mark and transferring votes.
| All losing candidates are eliminated.
====================================================================================================
6| | | 70159.696708| 70585.329669| 57683.305722| |
| | | | | | |
| 70146.748531| | | | | 70153.101303| 82154.215123
| | | | 1705.602944| 12464.078095| 70147.066177
|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Count after transferring surplus votes. Keep factors of candidates who have exceeded the
| threshold: PAKULA, Martin, 0.356347; EIDEH, Khalil, 0.556518; and FINN, Bernie, 0.463381.
| Candidate ELSBURY, Andrew has reached the threshold and is elected.
====================================================================================================
7| | | 73970.892843| 73975.953144| 62179.179663| |
| | | | | | |
| 70195.703483| | | | | 70208.534511| 70152.336134
| | | | 1905.400222| 7934.586965| 70113.766630
|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Count after transferring surplus votes. Keep factors of candidates who have exceeded the
| threshold: PAKULA, Martin, 0.356283; EIDEH, Khalil, 0.553063; FINN, Bernie, 0.463342; and
| ELSBURY, Andrew, 0.853847. Candidate HARTLAND, Colleen has reached the threshold and is elected.

Winners are PAKULA, Martin; EIDEH, Khalil; HARTLAND, Colleen; FINN, Bernie; and ELSBURY, Andrew.

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