Buoyed on by internal ALP analysis that indicates the greens are incapable of directing preferences away from the ALP to the Liberal Party, Michael Danby has decided to challenge the Greens in Melbourne Ports at the next Federal Election.
The Internal Party review undertaken by Alan Grffin has shown that the Greens ability to influence the allocation of Green preferences is less then 0.11% and that as a minor party they will not determine the result of the outcome of the election.
Danby, who is on a 5% margin, believes that support for the Greens will cost him votes in his inner city seat, and that more conservative voters, in particularly the Jewish community, will not vote for any party that is seen to be close to the Greens.
Being squeezed by both ends Danby has resolved that he will not seek a deal with the Greens in a preference swap. Danby has decided that Green voters will back him when it comes to second preferences allocations.
This bold and courageous move may see an end to the Greens chances of winning inner city seats in Victoria.
Danby's actions received the backing of the main faction players with the ALP at a meeting held today, setting the scene for the next Federal election in inner Melbourne. What impact this will have on the seat of Melbourne is unknown at this stage.
Analysis of the 2010 State election. where the Liberal Party decided not to direct preferences to the Greens ahead of the ALP ,was a decisive factor in the outcome of the State election. A decision that boosted ten support for the Liberal Party in ten last weeks of the campaign.
Danby is of the view that the Liberal Party will once again not direct preferences and that in any event in Greens will not run second in marginal seats within 5% as such neither the ALP or the Liberal Party preferences will be distributed.