Full preference flow based on the allocation of preferences of the above the line ticket registration and the optional preferential flow where votes exhaust after five preferences. We believe that you can allocate percentages to these tables to determine the likely data flow. The values we have indicated result in a tied vote between Bob Smith (ALP) and Colleen Hartland (Greens). Both Sex Party and FF have to reference a second Party for their vote to be valid. We have included a most likely what if of FF flowing to the DLP and exhausting.
The Liberal Party Ticket vote will increase in strength as a result of the flaw in the calculation of the Surplus Transfer value which is based on the number of ballot papers not the value of the vote
What is also interesting with this breakdown is that if you applied a reiterative count without segmentation Bob Smith is elected where the method of segmentation gives an unfair advantage to the Greens and other minor parties.
The main player and unknown quantity is where do the Sex Party preferences flow. Many will follow the Sex Party Ticket flow to the Greens where they may exhaust as the instructions given on the ballot paper encourage optional voting as opposed to a full preference distribution. The ALP is expected to pick up a greater share of Sex Party preferences then they did in the August Senate ballot due to the position of the ALP group being next to Sex Party (The donkey vote). There will be some votes that will cross groups but they can be accommodated by selecting and allocating their vote to one of the other records in the table presented depending on which group (ALP,Greens or Liberals) they end up at.
#1 For clarity sake we have allocated Sex Party BTL Full ticket vote within the Optional Preferential Sex Party to Greens list as it is unlikely to travel beyond the Greens.
On distribution of the below preference allocation the result is within 50 votes between Smith and Hartland
Current Group Vote Tally for Western Metropolitan
|B||AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY||192774||5354||198128||46.86%|
|D||D.L.P. - DEMOCRATIC LABOR PARTY||12097||1236||13333||3.15%|
Breakdown allocation of BTL preferences
|Below the Line Distribution Allocation|
|SEX PARTY #1||0||0.00%|
|AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY||535||10.00%|
|D.L.P. - DEMOCRATIC LABOR PARTY||309||25.00%|
|Optional Preferential (Stop at 5)|
|SEX PARTY -> GREENS||778||40.00%|
|SEX PARTY -> ALP||681||35.00%|
|SEX PARTY -> LIBERALS||487||25.00%|
|AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY||4819||90.00%|
|FAMILY FIRST -> DLP||619||75.00%|
|D.L.P. - DEMOCRATIC LABOR PARTY||927||75.00%|