Analysis of the data currently available indicates that a drift of less than 3-4% of Sex Party's below-the line preference votes will deliver the seat to Bob Smith (assuming that the Lib/FF/DLP ticket flows in full to the ALP) If there is a 5% drift from FF/DLP and a 20% drift in Liberal Party below the line votes to the Greens then the percentage of drift required from Sex Party increases to around 9%, We can expect that the actual drift of Sex Party preferences from the ticket vote will be greater than 10%. Some will flow to the Liberal Party and be absorbed by the Liberals second quota.
Contrary to Antony Greens earlier predictions I do not see on the basis of the data available that the Greens will reach quota in the fourth position. The above the line vote has assured a win for the Liberals second candidate and the contest will be fought out between the ALP and the Greens for the fifth spot.
Which ever Party loses there will be a request for a recount and a closer examination of the polling place returns.
There are currently over 4750 ballot papers outstanding, Baring another 500 votes going missing or a repeat of the data-entry errors that existed in the 2006 election anything can happen. Concern over the election is not helped by the fact that the VEC has refused to provide scrutineers copies of the below the line preference data files progressively throughout the data-entry process as was the case in the conduct of the City of Melbourne Count, the VEC has to date not provided a tally of the number of ballot papers issued and returned. This makes it that much more difficult to undertake a proper scrutiny of the ballot as the process is no longer open and transparent.
Without access to this information it is impossible to properly scrutinise an electronic count. Let alone a count that involves a preference data-entry process. If we are to maintain public confidence in our electoral system the conduct of the election must be open and transparent. Important Information should not be withheld as is currently the case.