Thursday, December 9, 2010

Sex Party Below-the-line Senate Stats

Analysis of August Victorian Senate Election voting statistics shows that 27% of the Sex Party below-the-line placed ALP ahead of the Greens, 26% had placed the ALP #3 candidate ahead of the Greens #1.

The Sex Party polled around 2.26% state wide in the 2010 Victorian Senate election and they polled 5600 below-the-line votes of  which 1549 placed the ALP ahead of the Greens and 1461 the ALP 3rd candidate before the Greens Senator Di Natale.

If these statistics are repeated in Western Metro then the ALPs Bob Smith will win the coveted last position with the incumbent Greens candidate Colleen Hartland missing out.

Update: In narrowing down our analysis of the 2010 Victorian Senate vote to the Federal seats of Calwell, Gellibrand, Gorton, Lalor, Maribyrnong and Wills there are 807 Sex Party below-the-line preference votes of which 215 (26.64%_ flow to Labor before the Greens and 194 (24.04%) flow to Labor's #3 candidate before the Greens.  Again confirming that of the same percentage of below-the-line preference drift to the ALP occurs in Western Metro then ALP #3 Candidate Bob Smith should be re-elected.  The unknown factor is the impact of the number of below-the-line optional preferential ballots that exhaust before reaching either the Greens or the ALP.

Posted by: democracy AT work | December 09, 2010 at 01:36 AM

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