Saturday, December 18, 2010

Western Metro; The flaw in the system ignored in Antony Green's analysis

The method used in calculating the results of the Victorian Legislative Council is flawed. It is not accurate and is semi proportional at best.

If you applied a reiterative count where the ballot is reset and the votes redistributed on every exclusion with a weighted calculation of the surplus transfer value the results are somewhat different to that which Antony Green has presented.

There are 422588 ballot papers

If you recount the vote excluding all candidates but the last six standing (3 ALP, 2 Liberals and 1 Green) and distribute all the votes based on the order of preferences allocated to continuing candidates .

1205 ballot papers exhaust without expressing a valid preference.

The quota based on the adjusted primary vote is 70229

After redistributing preferences and surpluses using a value based formula in calculating the surplus transfer value

The following are elected with quota
PAKULA, Martin 70229
EIDEH, Khalil 70229
FINN, Bernie 70229
ELSBURY, Andrew 70229

Last vacancy
HARTLAND, Colleen 70237
SMITH, Bob 69419

Exhausted with value 811

The gap between Hartland and Smith is 818 votes not 2012 as is derived using the VEC counting method.

Similar distortions were recorded in the 2007 Queensland Senate which resulted in Larissa Waters denied being elected to the sixth Queensland Senate spot.

The system in place does not accurately reflect the voters intention.

The distortion in the count arises from the method of calculating the surplus transfer value and the method of segmentation in redistributing excluded candidates votes.

The system was designed to facilitate a manual count. With the use of electronic counting there is no justification or merit in maintaining the flawed counting system. A reiterative weighted count such as the Wright System or Meek produces a much more accurate reflection of the voters intentions.

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