Julian Assange assassination: Conspiracy of misuse and abuse of government

The following interview between David Frost and Julian Assange. A clear case of misuse and abuse by government forces out to assassinate the whistleblowers' publisher.

Newspoll: End of year poll stats

The Australian had published its end of year News Poll.  It shows an increase in ALP support in Queensland since the August Federal election.  Ring out the old and bring in the new.  A year that Labor would prefer  to forget.

Northern Victoria: The flaw in the system ignored in Antony Green's analysis

What Antony Green's analysis fails to take into consideration is that the ALP ticket vote is inflated in value by 1117 votes as a result of the flawed method used by the VEC in calculating the Surplus Transfer Value and the Greens vote is devalued by 1134 votes.

This in turn inflates Country Alliances vote at the end of the count making it that much closer then it actually is. the other flaw in the counting system is the method of segmentation.

There is no logic in segmenting the count in distributing excluded candidates preferences. All preferences should be distributed in a single transaction.

The system of segmentation was designed to facilitate a manual count and limit the effect of the distortion in the method of calculating the Surplus Transfer value. Both processors are wrong and flawed.

In Queensland 2007Senate election Larissa Waters was denied representation as a result of the system of segmentation.

If we are to have an accurate and fair electoral system we will need to correct these flaws and introduce a reiterative counting system that minimises the distortion inn the count whilst better reflecting the voters intention.

Posted by: democracyAtWork | December 18, 2010 at 08:01 PM

In Antony Green's breakdown analysis of Northern Victoria Green failed to take into account the distortion in the way in which the Victorian Legislative Council is counted.  Concealed within Green's data is the number of ballot papers and their value attributed to the ALPs second candidate.  As a result of the method used in calculating the Surplus Transfer Value the ALP ticket vote actually increases in value at the expense of the Greens and other minor candidates full value votes

Vote source	Papers	Papers %	Value	Sum	Value %
ALP #1	104659	77.23%	0.3805	39825	56.41%
ALP (BTL)	749	0.55%	1.0000	749	1.06%
CA	13	0.01%	1.0000	13	0.02%
CDP	26	0.02%	1.0000	26	0.04%
DLP	72	0.05%	1.0000	72	0.10%
FF	63	0.05%	1.0000	63	0.09%
GRN	29548	21.80%	1.0000	29548	41.85%
LNP #1	46	0.03%	0.6560	30	0.04%
LNP #2	96	0.07%	0.3146	30	0.04%
LNP (BTL)	33	0.02%	1.0000	33	0.05%
SEX	212	0.16%	1.0000	212	0.30%
sum	135517	100%		70601	100%
Quota				64946
Surplus				5655	0.0417282
Vote source	Ballot Papers		Paper Based STV	Value Based STV	%	Diff
ALP #1	104659	77.23%	4367	3190	56.41%	1177
ALP (BTL)	749	0.55%	31	60	1.06%	-29
CA	13	0.01%	1	1	0.02%	0
CDP	26	0.02%	1	2	0.04%	-1
DLP	72	0.05%	3	6	0.10%	-3
FF	63	0.05%	3	5	0.09%	-2
GRN	29548	21.80%	1233	2367	41.85%	-1134
LNP #1	46	0.07%	4	2	0.04%	2
LNP #2	96	0.03%	2	2	0.04%	0
LNP (BTL)	33	0.02%	1	3	0.05%	-1
SEX	212	0.16%	9	17	0.30%	-8
sum	135517	100.00%	5655	5655	100.00%

Instead of winning by a margin of 3,532 votes (in a value based count) the VEC paper based formula gives the Liberal Party a reduced margin of 1,407 votes. An overall devaluation of an equivilent 2,125 votes

The following table highlights in more detail the extent of distortion in the method used to calculate the Surplus Transfer Value by showing a breakdown comparison of the count at the point where the ALP  second candidate is elected and the value of the vote following the distribution of the ALP surplus. The first data set shows the number of ballot papers, the second the reuslkts of the VEC paper based formula and the third the results using a weighted value based formula.

Western Metro; The flaw in the system ignored in Antony Green's analysis

The method used in calculating the results of the Victorian Legislative Council is flawed. It is not accurate and is semi proportional at best.

If you applied a reiterative count where the ballot is reset and the votes redistributed on every exclusion with a weighted calculation of the surplus transfer value the results are somewhat different to that which Antony Green has presented.

There are 422588 ballot papers

If you recount the vote excluding all candidates but the last six standing (3 ALP, 2 Liberals and 1 Green) and distribute all the votes based on the order of preferences allocated to continuing candidates .

1205 ballot papers exhaust without expressing a valid preference.

The quota based on the adjusted primary vote is 70229

After redistributing preferences and surpluses using a value based formula in calculating the surplus transfer value

The following are elected with quota
PAKULA, Martin 70229
EIDEH, Khalil 70229
FINN, Bernie 70229
ELSBURY, Andrew 70229

Last vacancy
HARTLAND, Colleen 70237
SMITH, Bob 69419

Exhausted with value 811

The gap between Hartland and Smith is 818 votes not 2012 as is derived using the VEC counting method.

Similar distortions were recorded in the 2007 Queensland Senate which resulted in Larissa Waters denied being elected to the sixth Queensland Senate spot.

The system in place does not accurately reflect the voters intention.

The distortion in the count arises from the method of calculating the surplus transfer value and the method of segmentation in redistributing excluded candidates votes.

The system was designed to facilitate a manual count. With the use of electronic counting there is no justification or merit in maintaining the flawed counting system. A reiterative weighted count such as the Wright System or Meek produces a much more accurate reflection of the voters intentions.

Posted by: democracyAtWork | December 18, 2010 at 04:38 PM

Poll Stats: Northern Metro - 4115 Green voters waste their vote

The table below shows the number of ballot papers based on candidates primary vote and distribution at conclusion of the count for Northern Metropolitan Region

4,115 Green voters ended up wasting their vote by not expressing a preference for every candidate with a total of 7,799 exhausted ballotts added to the informal vote total.

		Ticket votes		Below the line votes
ID	Candidate	ALP	LIB	Primary	ALP	LIB	<>
1	STUART, Joanne	1774	0	477	78	32	367
2	LEE, April	0	0	80	17	9	54
3	JANSON, Vickie	0	3081	373	40	91	242
4	ARTHUR, Saleem	0	0	79	11	14	54
5	MAYNE, Stephen	0	2046	1763	722	317	724
6	PICCININI, Paula	0	0	53	12	8	33
7	CONLON, Andrew	0	8577	401	38	164	199
8	KERIN, Peter	0	0	104	11	15	78
9	DAWSON, Rod	0	0	50	6	13	31
10	ARCHIBALD, Kevin	1884	0	161	30	62	69
11	MORRIS, Chris	0	0	27	7	7	13
12	BARBER, Greg	66222	0	6700	3849	551	2300
13	BHATHAL, Alexandra Kaur	0	0	1178	574	59	545
14	BRINDLEY, Fraser	0	0	367	148	23	196
15	RATNAM, Samantha Shantini	0	0	669	329	31	309
16	AIR, Alister	0	0	512	243	52	217
17	PATTEN, Fiona	12569	0	1594	741	305	548
18	LEITCH, Douglas	0	0	127	46	20	61
19	KAVANAGH, John	0	9668	663	112	145	406
20	THATCHER, Monica	0	0	83	14	7	62
21	CASHIN, Bridget	0	0	65	15	3	47
22	ANDERSON, Angela	0	0	123	14	16	93
23	TRAVERS, Michael	0	0	53	13	4	36
24	MIKAKOS, Jenny	161246	0	2656	2202	75	379
25	ELASMAR, Nazih	0	0	470	373	13	84
26	MURPHY, Nathan	0	0	228	228
27	PLATT, Rhiannon	0	0	209	157	7	45
28	SMYTHE, Peter	0	0	450	334	27	89
29	GUY, Matthew	0	104332	1691	22	1463	206
30	ONDARCHIE, Craig	0	0	245		245
31	GRANLEESE, Sam	0	0	221	13	158	50
32	PARSONS, Daniel	0	0	184	10	129	45
33	TOWNSON, Jemma	0	0	232	5	190	37
34	WHITEHEAD, Adrian	0	0	348	118	50	180
	Total	243695	127704	22636	10532	4305	7799

Northern Victoria: Tully's Dodgy Tally

In another example of just how shoddy Tully's Tally is were compare the information published by the VEC for Northern Victoria.

On the Official VEC published website we extract the following information

Recheck votes

Total Enrolment as at close of rolls:	429217
Formal Votes:	389721
Informal Votes:	11177 (2.79% of the total votes)
Total Votes:	400898 (93.40% of the total enrolment as at the close of rolls rechecked)
Quota:	64946

Recheck first preference votes

	Group	Above the line	Below the line	Total votes	% of formal vote	Quota
A	COUNTRY ALLIANCE	24537	2123	26660	6.84%	0.41
B	CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY (FRED NILE GROUP)	2112	438	2550	0.65%	0.04
C	FAMILY FIRST	10767	672	11439	2.94%	0.18
D	AUSTRALIAN GREENS	27891	3319	31210	8.01%	0.48
E	LIBERAL / THE NATIONALS	186566	4335	190901	48.98%	2.94
F	AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY	103479	2311	105790	27.15%	1.63
G	SEX PARTY	14172	710	14882	3.82%	0.23
H	D.L.P. - DEMOCRATIC LABOR PARTY	5880	409	6289	1.61%	0.10

The total number of formal votes recorded in the above table shows

	ATL	BTL	TOTAL
	375404	14317	389721

When you examine the final details published by the VEC you get a different total? 59 votes difference in the total formal votes recorded. 

Total ATL Votes	Total BTL Votes	Formal	Informal	Total Votes
375,457	14,216	389,673	11,220	400,893

Clearly there is something wrong with the VEC procedures as the tally does not tally. The data certainly looks doctored and begs the question how good is the 13 million dollar sofwtare that the VEC invested in. Looks mickey mouse to us. Oh and the BTL data files does not match up either, which might explain why Steve tully did not want to make this data available. It's rule of thumb when it comes to Tully's Tally. Tully's near enough is good enough approcah is not really good enough.

Brumby's Loss: An election that was theirs to win on preferences

It was always going to be hard fro the labor government to win a consecutive fourth term. It ha a number of issues working against it. Myki, the drought, public transport and a perception of time.   But the truth is Labor lost the election due to administrative error in the campaign and the process leading up to the election.

It's greatest failure was not negotiating better preference deals with the DLP and Sex party.  Had the ALP manged to secure a better deal from the DLP and Sex Party alone it would have retained office and the upper-house.

The ALP lost focus and control in negotiating preferences.  Its only support came from the Greens who were the ALPs main competitor in the inner city region.  The ALP was always going to attract 80% of the Greens preferences but it was no assured of securing preferences from other minor parties.  Parties that could have helped Labor retain office .  Labor could have traded off support to the DLP in Western Victoria in exchange for support else where.  if it had secure bits DLP and Sex Party support in Southern Metropolitan, or DLP support in Northern and Western Metropolitan the ALP would have won three extra upper-house seats.  The ALP did not even take into consideration the upper-house.  A fatel mistake.  It could have traded off support for teh DLP for support in teh lower hosue. It would have also retained Bentleigh had it had managed to secure DLP preferences.  Support from the DLP came at a price but the party would have retained government. without it they lost all.

The decision to introduce Optional Preferential; voting and the VEC's failure to encourage voters to fill in all squares played a significant part in the ALPs loss in Western Metropolitan but this was not the reason the ALP lost in Northern Metropolitan or Southern Metropolitan. It lost because it had no support from other players and poor preferences

Presiding Officers Ousted: Both Speaker and President lose office

Both the former Speaker of the Legislative Assembly and the President of the Legislative Council were defeated in the November election.  The declaration of election results for the Western Metropolitan regions has resulted in Bob Smith being ousted from office along with Jenny Lindell. 

Bob Smith, who was previously the member for South Eastern Metropolitan Region, had  decided to forsake running as the ALPs third candidate in his old electorate and instead opted to run in Western Metropolitan in what was considered to be a safer seat. Had the previous State government not adopted optional preferential voting or voters filled in all preferences Bob Smith may have survived. As it turned out South Eastern was a better bet with the ALP retaining three upper house seats and Bob Smith as a result of the optional preferential rule change lost office.

2010 Victorian State Election - Legislative Council - BTL preference data files

We have published a full set of the below-the-line preference data files for the Victorian Legislative Council  that Victoria's Chief Electoral Commissioner, Steve Tully, refused to publish during the progress of the count.

13 Million dollars spent on software development and the VEC is unable or unwilling to make this crucial data available? Why?

Each zip file contains both the preliminary data set and the final data set as supplied by the Victorian Electoral Commission after the completion of the ballot.

• Eastern Metro BTL Preference data.zip (687k) Download
• Eastern Victoria BTL Preference data.zip (664)k Download
• Northern Metro BTL Preference data.zip (1232k) Download
• Northern Victoria BTL Preference data.zip (704k) Download
• South Eastern Metro BTL Preference data.zip (549k) Download
• Southern Metro BTL Preference data.zip (1025k) Download
• Western Metro BTL Preference data.zip (806k) Download
• Western Victoria BTL Preference data.zip (590k) Download

In 2006 Steve Tully refused to provide copies of the Legislative Council below-the line data files,  (We had to make an  FOI application for the data and then he only provided count B data for Western Metropolitan. When requested by the Victorian Parliamentary Electoral Matters Committee to provide copies of the Count A data files, Steve Tully claimed that the data had been destroyed and overwritten and that no backup copies were made,  An extraordinary claim given that its costs millions of dollars to collate this information and it is hard to believe that any professional organisation would not have implemented backup procedures of the requested data. At a cost of 13 million dollars in software development it is hard to believe that backup copies were name made or were destroyed.

In 2010 Steve Tully once again refused to provide scrutineers copies of the below the line preference data files, this denying scrutineers the right to properly scrutinise the election. . This data which should have been published on on progressively as the count preceded has been now been made available but not yet published by the VEC.

We believe that this information should be readily available and that the election process must be open and transparent.   Steve Tully claims that he is not required to publish this data.  There are a lot of things he is not required to do but he does have an obligation and a duty to ensure that our public elections are open and transparent.  In not publishing this information live, as was the case with the election night polling place results Steve Tully has and continues to bring the conduct of the State Election into disrepute.  There is nothing in law that prevents this information being made public. It is a public document that the public have a right of access to. Copies of the preference data files was made available during the counting of the 2008 City of Melbourne municipal election. Why not the State election?

If Steve Tully cannot self regulate in the interest of maintaining an honest and transparent election he should resign and  the Victorian Parliament must legislate to ensure that this information is readily available progressively during the count