Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

Newspoll shows Labor down 4%, LNP steady on 43% with the Greens fluctuating between 11% to 14%

The discrepancy in the various polls when  it comes to Greens votes is most likely due to demographics in the sample data.  Most of the Green vote is concentrated in the Zone One inner city regions and as such depending on the poll sample would explain the ups and down of the Green vote in the polls. Taking the average between  8% as shown in yesterday's Essential Research poll and the 14%  in the Newspoll the Greens are sitting on 11%-12%  not much change from the last federal election.

Whilst this might give rise to public discourse around the Green Tea leaf readers  communal dinner  it is not much to report on.  The intrinsic flaw in the national polls is their failure to break down the poll into regions.  Australia is not a homogeneous single electorate. The published data excluded 4% uncommitted and 1% who refused to answer. The silent swinging voters that votes as they do placing a bet on a horse for the Melbourne cup.  The published poll reflects only the decided committed vote.

Whilst Gillard's performance satisfactory rating has declined over the last two weeks her dissatisfaction level has also declined, by 2% since the August Federal election, shifting from satisfied to an uncommitted holding pattern. She was doing much better two weeks ago before she travelled to Asia.

One of the criticism is Gillard's over cautious moderation in her speeches.  Less moderation and more modulation, more passion and compassion, less repetition in phrases is needed. Some how Julia just does not cut it on the international stage as Rudd does.  Maybe if she cut herself free from the minders as she did in the campaign she would be better off.

Gillard still remains the favourite for PM, down 1% to 49% with Abbott dropping 3% points down to 34% with the doubters increasing by the same amount

No comments:

Post a Comment