Friday, November 19, 2010

Northern Metro: Interesting vote ahead for independents

Northern Metropolitan is shaping up to be the electorate to watch as there is a toss up who could win the converted fifth seat. One of the joys of having an add number to be elected in a STV count.

The identified distortion in the flawed way in which the VEC calculate the surplus transfer value will not play a major role as most candidates are elected on the primary votes and initial distribution of surplus transfers so there is minimal impact that would arise from mixing votes with full value with fractional values.

However the segmented distribution of preferences never the less becomes interesting and this could be a situation such as in Queensland 2007 where the method of segmentation and distribution of preferences from excluded candidates (The dealing from the bottom of the deck) elected the wrong candidate in the final position. In Northern Metro's case this could deliver a win for either Group A or the DLP versus the ALP or Liberal Party)

Playing around with the Antony Green's calculator which replicates the flawed VEC counting system  produces some interesting results.

We recommend that would be punters on Sportsbet  start off using the estimated Senate values (The ones published by ABC Analysts Antony Green does not include the Postal, Absentee and Pre polling vote 0 a fact that is not mentioned as a  error of margin statement) but never the less a good starting point to seed the values of the minor independent parties.We can expect no more than a 2-3$ points shift in group vote allocations. You can be the judge as to which direction.  The aim of to find the tipping point of the scales and in both directions for each of the various players. ALP, Liberals Greens and the DLP.

We can bet that the DLP will concentrate its resources in  the region.

Tye likely outcome of an independent minor party securing the first seat is so great that we are forced to put on hold our final prediction for Northern Metro.  If the pollsters publish a poll breakdown into the upper house regions then we will be in a much better position to ascertain the final outcome prediction.

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