Review of Antony Greens flawed Senate to Victoria’s Upper house comparison

Errors we pay for exposed.

(Greens comments in italics)

One difficulty in using the Senate results is that there were many more parties and groups contesting the Senate election than are likely to nominate for the Legislative Council. 

This is not an issue in making valid comparisons and analysis.  The information available indicates clearly where the minor party support is likely to fall

Overall the Victorian Senate saw Labor poll 37.8% compared to 41.4% at the 2006 LC election, the Coalition polled 34.4% down from 39.0% in 2006, while the Green vote rose from 10.6% in 2006 to 14.6% at the 2010 Senate election. Family First declined from 3.9% to 2.6%, and the DLP rose slightly from 2.0% to 2.3%. 

The drop in support is a reflection of the electorate and also reflects current public opinion polls.

In 2006 Labor won 19 Legislative Council seats, the Coalition 17 (Lib 15, Nat 2), the Greens 3, and the DLP winning the final seat in Western Victoria thanks to Labor's decision to preference the DLP ahead of the Greens.

Based on the Senate figures, there are two possible change to the composition of the Legislative Council, the Greens taking a seat from the Liberals in Eastern Metropolitan, and the final seat in Western Victoria again dependent on Labor preferences. Based on the Senate vote, the DLP don't have enough vote to win any seats. However, if the DLP's Peter Kavanagh can poll 5-6% in Western Victoria, he could still win the final seat depending on Labor's preference decision.

WRONG GREEN ASSESMENT

Liberal preferences could also play a part in determining whether Labor or the Greens win the final seat in Northern and Western Metropolitan region.

On the analysis set out by region below, Labor would win 19 seats, the Coalition 16, the Greens four plus a fifth seat in Western Victoria if Labor changes its 2006 preference decision. However, if Labor polls as well as it did at the Senate election, then Labor with 19 seats may see advantage in helping the DLP maintain a Legislative Council presence.

It is possible that Labor's LC vote will be lower than at the Senate election. However, the only Labor seat that looks at risk is the second position in Southern Metropolitan. Labor would have to poll very badly to lose seats in other regions.

(The party codes in the tables below are FFP - Family First, DLP - Democratic Labor Party, SEX - Australian Sex Party, LDP - Liberal Democratic Party, SF - Shooters and Fishers.)

Eastern Metropolitan Region
	ALP	L/NP	GRN	FFP	DLP	SEX	LDP	SF	OTH
2006 State % Vote	36.0	44.8	10.5	4.4	1.6	..	..	..	2.7
Quotas	2.16	2.69	0.63	0.27	0.09	..	..	..	0.16
Seats Won	2	3	..	..	..	..	..	..	..
2010 Federal % Vote	33.6	40.2	14.2	3.1	1.8	2.1	1.7	0.8	2.5
Quotas	2.02	2.41	0.85	0.19	0.11	0.12	0.10	0.05	0.15
Green's predicted seats won	2	2	1	..	..	..	..	..	..
Our prediction seats won	2	2(3)	1(0)	..	..	..	..	..	..

On Senate figures, the Green vote is close enough to a quota to win the final seat, gaining a seat from the Liberal Party. It seems unlikely that Labor will be of much assistance for the Greens, any decline in Labor vote since 2006 likely to leave Labor with little or no surplus beyond two quotas. A Green victory will require the Greens to approach the full quota, as the preferences of smaller parties such as Family First and the DLP will favour the Liberal Party.

The Status quo of ALP 2 LNP 3 is most likely outcome

Eastern Victoria Region
	ALP	L/NP	GRN	FFP	DLP	SEX	LDP	SF	OTH
2006 State % Vote	34.9	47.8	9.2	4.5	1.2	..	..	..	2.4
Quotas	2.09	2.87	0.55	0.27	0.07	..	..	..	0.15
Seats Won	2	3	..	..	..	..	..	..	..
2010 Federal % Vote	33.2	40.8	12.7	3.0	1.8	2.3	1.7	2.1	2.5
Quotas	1.99	2.45	0.76	0.18	0.11	0.14	0.10	0.12	0.15
Green’s predicted seats won	2	3	..	..	..	..	..	..	..
Our prediction seats won	2	3	..	..	..	..	..	..	..

The Coalition will run a joint ticket at the 2010 election. In 2006 the Liberal Party polled 2.35 quotas and the Nationals 0.52 quotas, the preferences of the Liberals and smaller parties delivering victory to the National Party. Once again, with Labor polling around two quotas, the Greens would need close to a quota in their own right to take a seat from the Coalition.

No change

Northern Metropolitan Region
	ALP	L/NP	GRN	FFP	DLP	SEX	LDP	SF	OTH
2006 State % Vote	49.0	23.2	17.1	2.8	5.2	..	..	..	2.9
Quotas	2.94	1.39	1.02	0.17	0.31	..	..	..	0.17
Seats Won	3	1	1	..	..	..	..	..	..
2010 Federal % Vote	44.1	21.9	22.0	2.0	2.6	2.1	1.5	0.8	2.9
Quotas	2.65	1.32	1.32	0.12	0.16	0.13	0.09	0.05	0.17
Green’s predicted seats won	3	1	1	..	..	..	..	..	..
Our prediction seats won	3(2)	1(2)	1	..	..	..	..	..	..

In 2006 the DLP came surprisingly close to beating Labor in the race for the final seat. A data entry error in the first count in fact delivered victory to the DLP, a result reversed on the re-count. On the Senate figures, the race would be on between Labor and a party of the right for the final seat. The Greens would have to increase dramatically on the Senate result to have a chance of winning a second seat, and that seat could only come at the expense of Labor. On the Senate results, Green preferences would deliver the last seat to Labor.

In 2006 the Liberal preference ticket put Labor ahead of the Greens. Were that repeated in 2010, the Greens would have no chance of winning a second seat on the Senate figures. If the Liberals directed preferences to the Greens, there would be an outside possibility of the Greens reaching a second quota.

The Liberal Party have placed the Greens last on all its Group voting tickets there is a possibility that the last seat could go to the Liberal Party

Northern Victoria Region
	ALP	L/NP	GRN	FFP	DLP	SEX	LDP	SF	OTH
2006 State % Vote	30.1	50.3	7.3	3.7	2.1	..	..	..	6.5
Quotas	1.81	3.02	0.44	0.22	0.13	..	..	..	0.38
Seats Won	2	3	..	..	..	..	..	..	..
2010 Federal % Vote	32.7	41.8	10.2	3.3	2.2	2.6	1.8	2.7	2.8
Quotas	1.96	2.51	0.61	0.20	0.13	0.15	0.11	0.16	0.17
Green’s predicted seats won	2	3		..	..	..	..	..	..
Our prediction seats won	2	3	0	..	..	..	..	..	..

The Coalition will run a joint ticket in 2010. In 2006 the Liberals polled 1.75 quotas, the Nationals 1.27. With many more choices of smaller right-wing parties at the Senate election, the Coalition did not poll as well. The most likely result will be three Coalition two Labor, as any Labor shortfall on the second quota will probably see the Greens excluded and elect the second Labor candidate.

No Change

South Eastern Metropolitan Region
	ALP	L/NP	GRN	FFP	DLP	SEX	LDP	SF	OTH
2006 State % Vote	49.8	33.7	7.2	5.3	0.9	..	..	..	3.1
Quotas	2.99	2.02	0.43	0.32	0.05	..	..	..	0.19
Seats Won	3	2	..	..	..	..	..	..	..
2010 Federal % Vote	43.9	30.7	11.3	3.3	2.9	2.3	2.0	0.8	2.8
Quotas	2.63	1.84	0.68	0.20	0.18	0.14	0.11	0.16	0.17
Green’s predicted seats won	3	2	..	..	..	..	..	..	..
Our prediction seats won	2	2	1	..	..	..	..	..	..

Based on Senate results, the Greens lead Labor in the race for the final seat. However, based on past preference tickets, the smaller right of centre parties will put Labor ahead of the Greens, ensuring Labor will benefit from preferences once the Liberal Party fill their second seat.

The Greens will pickup preferences from Sex Party which will put them above the ALP who will then in turn ensure the Greens are elected to the last position

Southern Metropolitan Region
	ALP	L/NP	GRN	FFP	DLP	SEX	LDP	SF	OTH
2006 State % Vote	31.2	46.2	15.7	2.2	1.2	..	..	..	3.5
Quotas	1.87	2.77	0.94	0.13	0.07	..	..	..	0.22
Seats Won	2	2	1	..	..	..	..	..	..
2010 Federal % Vote	28.6	41.6	20.9	1.1	1.3	2.0	1.7	0.5	2.2
Quotas	1.72	2.50	1.26	0.07	0.08	0.12	0.10	0.03	0.13
Green’s predicted seats won	2	2	1	..	..	..	..	..	..
Our prediction seats won	1	3	1	..	..	..	..	..	..

(Update: If you try and apportion the declaration vote from the federal electorate to the state regions, you get slightly different percentages, Labor 28.1, Liberal 42.0 and Green 20.7. I don't see that these numbers require me to change the comments below.))

In 2006 the Labor Party filled its second quota just ahead of the third Liberal, the result determined by below the line votes and the number of voters who exhausted their below-the-line votes. On the Senate figures, the Greens will have in excess of a quota and any Green surplus will be of assistance to Labor in winning a second seat. The chances of the Liberals winning a third seat would require a drop in the Labor vote, but it won't help the Liberal cause much if those Labor votes simply switch to the Greens. If the Liberal vote increases, chances of them winning a third seat increases.

This is one of the major floors in Greens analysis.  But not taking into account the Absentee, Postal and Pre-poll votes your distort the statistics.  This electorate has a large Jewish population which does not vote on Saturday they opt for other options such as  pre-polling or postal voting. This is a significant floor in Green’s assessments as it can provide a 1% variation in each of the three major parties.  In the Case of Southern Metro it is very much significant in determining the outcome of this seat which is the most likely to go down to the wire.  If the Greens plus the Sex Party vote falls below quota then the results could be ALP 2 LNP 3. Most likely outcome will be ALP 1, LNP 3, GRN 1. The ALP only picks up preferences from the Greens.,  If the combined Green surplus and the ALP primary is above 50% (Unlikely) then the status quo will be retained.  The Sex Party preferences the Liberal Party via the Greens (Adding insurance to the Greens but most likely will flow direct to the Liberal Party of the Greens are elected on primary vote.

TARGET GREENS BELOW 14%
If the Greens primary vote falls below 14% then Labor could be back in the game.

Western Metropolitan Region
	ALP	L/NP	GRN	FFP	DLP	SEX	LDP	SF	OTH
2006State % Vote	58.7	24.5	9.4	4.0	1.1	..	..	..	2.3
Quotas	3.52	1.47	0.56	0.24	0.06	..	..	..	0.15
Seats Won	3	1	1	..	..	..	..	..	..
2010 Federal % Vote	50.0	22.3	13.3	2.8	3.4	2.2	1.9	1.0	3.0
Quotas	3.00	1.34	0.80	0.17	0.20	0.13	0.11	0.06	0.18
Green’s predicted seats won	3	1	1	..	..	..	..	..	..
Our prediction seats won	3	1	1	..	..	..	..	..	..

In 2006 Labor came very close to winning a fourth seat. Initially the second Liberal was excluded and Liberal preferences elected a fourth Labor candidate. On the re-count the Labor vote fell just short of the second Liberal at a key point, and Labor was excluded, Labor preferences electing a Green. On the Senate figures, Labor easily win three seats and the Liberals one, with the Greens favoured to reach the final quota. On the Senate figures, the only way the Greens could lose is by the Liberal Party and smaller right-of-centre parties to do a tight preference exchange and stack preferences to reach a quota. A Green victory would be helped by Labor polling above the third quota if the Greens fall short of a quota.

In 2006 The ALP had initially won 4 seats and the Liberal Party 1. In a recount there was 500 votes in total vote discrepancy between Count A and Count B.  Either the VEC double counted or votes went missing. The Greens won the recount by less than 150 votes. When the Parliament asked for copies of the “Below-the-line” preference data for Count A the VEC claimed that the information was deleted/overwritten.  No backup copies made or available. As such there is no means of independent analysis or verification of the outcome of the election.

Western Victoria Region
	ALP	L/NP	GRN	FFP	DLP	SEX	LDP	SF	OTH
2006State % Vote	42.0	40.9	8.6	3.9	2.7	..	..	..	1.9
Quotas	2.52	2.45	0.52	0.24	0.16	..	..	..	0.11
Seats Won	2	2	..	..	1	..	..	..	..
2010 Federal % Vote	39.9	34.6	11.9	2.9	2.3	2.4	1.5	2.0	2.5
Quotas	2.39	2.07	0.71	0.18	0.14	0.14	0.09	0.12	0.15
Green’s predicted seats won	2	2	1	..	..	..	..	..	..
Our prediction seats won	2	2	1	..	..	..	..	..	..

The Coalition will run a joint ticket in 2010. In 2006 the Liberals polled 2.12 quotas and the Nationals 0.33. Minor party preferences put the DLP ahead of Family First, then Family First preferences put the DLP ahead of the Liberal plus National total, and then Labor's decision to give preferences to the DLP ahead of the Greens elected the DLP's Peter Kavanagh. On the Senate figures, who wins the final seat would be determined by Labor preferences. In the above figures, I have assumed Labor would direct preferences to the Greens, but if Kavanagh can improve his vote compared to 2006, and Labor choose to direct preferences to him, then he could again win the final seat.

Labor has not preferenced the DLP (The DLP has also not preferenced the ALP as such the National party or the Greens (which pick up the ALP surplus) is elected to the last seat.

In summary based on the Senate vote our prediction for the upper house

Region	ALP	LNP	GRN
Eastern Metropolitian	2	2(3)	1(0)
Eastern Victoria	2	3
Northern Metropolitan	3(2)	1(2)	1
Northern Victoria	2	3
South Eastern	3	2
Southern Metropolitan	1	3	1
Western Metropolitan	3	1	1
Western Victoria	2	2	1

Total

18 (17)

17(19)

5(4)